Manchester United officially sacked David Moyes today. Having already gone into length in my defense of Moyes earlier this month, I won't get into that again now. Instead I'll be looking forward to see what might be next for (what used to be) England's biggest club.
Ryan Giggs will be the interim manager for the rest of the season. Perhaps Giggs can win the big job for himself by guiding United past Tottenham and into the Europa League. But I think this is unlikely. Moyes's replacement will most likely be a foreign manager who has won things.
Jurgen Klopp rumors have been dismissed by Borussia Dormund. Klopp is under contract until 2018 and he reportedly intends to honor that contract.
Diego Simeone is a young, up-and-coming manager who has built a powerhouse team at Atletico. His side have withstood the sales of many key players and keep improving year-to-year. But Simeone has a bit of a checkered history with United, after being roundly vilified in the UK for "getting Beckham sent off" in France '98. I could see United's entitled supporters (literally) turning on him very quickly if things don't go their way immediately.
For this reason, I think the two most likely candidates to replace Moyes are a Frenchman and a Dutchman.
Laurent Blanc has managed PSG to consecutive Ligue 1 titles (in all likelihood). He also won the French cup this year and was very unlucky not to be playing in the semifinals of the Champions League tonight after losing to Chelsea. He has experience managing big egos with massive salaries, and he's a former United defender. Blanc seems to be a very logical choice because he is yet to sign a new contract for the Parisian giants and would be available for a return to Manchester if United were interested.
However, Louis Van Gaal is the overwhelming favorite to take the job with the bookies. Van Gaal will be free after coaching the Netherlands at the World Cup this summer. He has built very young, successful teams at Ajax, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich. And his close relationship with Robin van Persie is well-known. Van Gaal's track record with youth could help rebuild the club from the bottom-up, and in that sense he might be exactly what United needs. But I'm not sure United fans have the patience for him. They clearly had no patience for Moyes.
Regardless of who replaces Moyes, they will be taking over a team in decline, with major issues at every level. United has relied on their more senior players for far too long, and they did very little to bring in and keep quality young players as Sir Alex Ferguson sought to end his managerial career on a high note.
Other than van Persie and the recent acquisition of Juan Mata, Man United has failed to bring in good players for the last 5 years. They failed to adequately reinvest the 80 million the club made on the Ronaldo sale in 2009. It's finally catching up to them.
They bought Ashley Young, Chris Smalling, Chicharito Hernandez, David De Gea, Phil Jones, Alexander Buttner, Shinji Kagawa, Wilfried Zaha and Nick Powell, all of whom were 24 or younger when they joined the club. None have developed into world class players. None were great purchases.
Meanwhile Paul Pogba wasted away in United's academy, and refused to sign a new contract at Old Trafford when he turned 21. Pogba is now much better than any of the 9 players I mentioned above.
Ferguson did win the league twice in 3 years (2010/11 and 2012/13), but make no mistake, United's long-term strength was sacrificed in order to pay for short-term success.
The defense and midfield aged and now lack the athleticism to compete at the top level. Very few of United's defenders and midfielders would start for any of United's rivals in the top 4. The young players Fergie bought to replace his senior stars haven't been up to standard.
And while there is quality in United's attack, there is a major problem with the team's chemistry in this area. The Rooney/van Persie situation has snowballed into a very serious financial and footballistic issue for the club.
As I pointed out yesterday, Rooney's contract is toxic. 300k per week drains the club's resources, which is a major concern as Financial Fair Play begins. In addition, it will make Rooney very difficult to sell on the transfer market. Few clubs can afford to match that weekly wage. The ones that can already possess the world's best strikers. And there are better players out there (Diego Costa, Luis Suarez, etc.) who do a lot more on the pitch for much less money.
Rooney and van Persie cannot play together. Sir Alex Ferguson understood this in his final season. He benched Rooney to play van Persie, and van Persie rewarded him with incredibly clinical finishing.
Check out this article, written before the season, by statsbomb.com. It showed that United had the best goal difference in the league while having just the 8th best shot difference in 2012/13.
Most EPL statistical analysis is simple. The more times you shoot, the more likely you are to score. And along those lines, the less shots you allow, the less likely you are to concede goals.
Fergie's final season defied this simple logic. The best goal difference on the 8th best shot difference implies that United was hyper-efficient when finishing chances. A lot of that had to do with van Persie.
Van Persie scored 30 goals for United last season on just 168 total shots. That's a goal/shot ratio of 17.8%.
Compare that with Rooney this season. Rooney has scored 17 goals in all competitions and has taken 128 shots. His ratio is just 13.3%.
To me, the answer is simple. Van Persie is a better player than Rooney. Attempts to play the two together have failed, and therefore the best course of action for United is to bench Rooney as Fergie did two years ago.
Which brings us full circle to the main problem--Rooney's contract. No club can afford to pay 300k per week to a player sitting on the bench, especially as FFP is being implemented.
Only one thing's certain. Whoever takes the Old Trafford job this summer will have a very difficult time appeasing supporters with utterly ridiculous expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if a big name pulls a "Guardiola" and turns them down again.
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