This week, basically everyone with a computer has used it to speculate on Arsenal's summer transfer targets. Since I have a computer myself, I thought I'd add to the discussion.
In my opinion, it's likely that we'll need to spend the fabled "warchest" on at least 6 players.
1. A new #2 GK to replace Fabianski and provide competition to Szczesny.
2. A new CB to replace Vermaelen--who is almost certain to leave
3. Another CB for additional cover, because we've been lucky to get away with just 3 this season.
4. A new holding midfielder to compete with, and eventually replace Arteta.
5. A versatile winger with speed to not be so reliant on Walcott.
6. A fast striker to provide something different to Giroud.
Notably, I do not think we need a replacement for Sagna if we lose him. I believe in Jenkinson. I think his athleticism is truly unique. Yes he is a raw player who is prone to making mistakes, but his technique will only become more refined with more playing time. The guy can literally run all day, he has incredible Ramsey-esque fitness and stamina. I can't think of a better quality for a fullback, especially in Arsenal's system, where fullbacks are expected to contribute to the attack as much as defense.
And I expect Hector Bellerin to be promoted to the senior team as the #2 option. Bellerin has been a bright spot in the youth teams for years since signing from La Masia with Jon Toral in 2011. He is our highest-rated young player, and it's a shame Watford changed managers early in his loan this fall. Gianfranco Zola planned to give the young Spaniard much more playing time than Giuseppe Sannino did. I think the boy is ready to make the step up.
Therefore I don't necessarily think we need to make a move for Callum Chambers or Serge Aurier--despite both being heavily linked.
Here's a look at some potential targets at the positions where I do believe we need to strengthen:
Goalkeeper
Keylor Navas - Levante. The 27 year old Costa Rican shot-stopper has reportedly refused to sign a new contract. His Levante side sit in 11th in La Liga despite scoring just 30 goals in 34 matches, only 3 more than Elche--the lowest-scoring team in the Spanish League. According to WhoScored.com, Navas has been Levante's undisputed best player this season, with a match rating of 7.21 in 33 appearances and an impressive list of strengths compared to very few weaknesses. And faced with the prospect of losing him for free next season, cash-strapped Levante may be forced to sell. They will almost certainly rather sell to a club abroad than to a Spanish rival, and therefore I believe Navas would be a great, affordable addition who could provide genuine competition to Szczesny at goalkeeper.
Center Back
Matthias Ginter - Freiburg. Freiburg's Sporting Director Jochen Saier dismissed earlier reports that Dortmund had agreed to buy the 20 year old German player this summer. Saier admitted that advanced discussions had taken place with Dortmund, but explicitly said they have not received an offer. Therefore, I am interpreting Saier's statement as inviting other offers from other teams. Like Levante and Navas, Freiburg almost surely would rather sell Ginter to a foreign club than to a domestic rival. And the German contingent already in place at Arsenal makes us a great potential destination for the youngster. Ginter would be my first choice. He is a young player tipped for great things and he is versatile enough to play in central midfield when called upon.
Andrea Ranocchia - Inter Milan. Nemanja Vidic's imminent move to Milan may force 26 year old Ranocchia out. Ranocchia has been inconsistent in his time for Inter, but he has been strong this season in limited action according to WhoScored.com, with a 7.26 match rating in 20 appearances. Ranocchia would be the understudy to Mertesacker, as they are similar players whose height allows them to excel in the air. This might make it tough to convince Ranocchia to join, as Arsenal cannot guarantee immediate playing time.
That will be the most difficult part when signing the necessary cover at this position. A young player like Ginter may be inclined to sign on and wait a year or two for his opportunity, but Ranocchia is entering his prime, he will be less patient. Therefore I would classify Ranocchia as an extremely optimistic signing. More likely would be someone in the Squillaci mold, someone who is facing very little playing time anyway and would be happy to just be part of the team.
A Squillaci-esque suggestion? A return for Phillipe Senderos. The former Arsenal and current on-loan Valencia player's contract with Fulham expires this summer. He would be classified as a home-grown player for European registration purposes, which is a positive for a guy who would basically only need to be emergency cover as the 4th choice central defender. And the imminent departure of Nicklas Bendtner creates a need for another home-grown player. While the end of Senderos's Arsenal career (and his progression since) has been distinctly average, he did enjoy a few very good years quite early in his career with us. Perhaps a return could spur on a Flamini-esque renaissance.
Holding Midfielder
Lars Bender - Leverkusen. Bender was strongly linked last season after Leverkusen reportedly rejected a 19 million pound bid. Leverkusen changed their manager this spring, and Sacha Lewandowski may now agree to cash in on Bender in order to fund the acquisitions of his preferred targets.
Bender is a versatile player who can double as a fullback--which could be very important if we do lose Sagna this summer. According to some observers, Bender has had a difficult season this year as the speculation about his future has weighed heavily. However it should be noted that Bender was playing with a calf injury during much of the above article's damning 7 game winless streak.
Bender's stats on WhoScored.com seem strong. His tackling ability (nearly 4 tackles per game) is something that could be a very useful addition to the current Arsenal midfield, although questions would remain regarding Bender's distribution and his ability to read the game. He averages just 1.5 interceptions per game (compared to Arteta's 2 per game) and completed less than 40 passes per game this season (compared to Arteta's 65.7). I am of the opinion that these stats are more of a reflection of his role in Leverkusen's current setup rather than an indication of his quality as a player, however. I think Bender could add a lot to the current Arsenal team if we bought him
Winger
While I don't want to "kill Gnabry," I do think the squad could use another fast winger. The injury to Walcott has revealed a frightening lack of quick players at the club. A few have suggested that Alexis Sanchez would be available from Barcelona. While I think Sanchez is a very good player, my preference would be a slightly younger and cheaper option.
Xherdan Shaqiri - Bayern. The 22-year old Swiss attacker made a name for himself after several impressive performances in FC Basel's success at the expense of Manchester United in the 2011 Champions League. He moved to Bayern that summer, but the form of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, combined with the acquisition of Mario Gotze, have marginalized his importance to the Bavarian giants. Shaqiri has scored 4 goals in 4 starts since Bayern clinched the Bundesliga and began rotating their squad this spring.
Shaqiri reportedly turned down an offer from Juventus but may be willing to come to London if he can be assured a starting position. I believe Shaqiri could become a fixture on the Arsenal wing for the years to come. His pace would force opposing fullbacks to be more conscientious with their forays foward. And his technical ability would fit in seamlessly into Wenger's desired style of play. We'll have to move quickly, as Liverpool are reportedly interested as well.
Other options could be Bernard, who is reportedly unsettled by the political unrest in Ukraine after just one season at Shakhtar; Adam Lallana, who has been magnificent this season for Southampton; or Julian Draxler, who we were very strongly linked to in January.
Striker
The most obvious position of need is one that has caused the most debate among supporters. Mario Mandzukic is too similar to Giroud for my liking. Diego Costa has a release clause that is almost certain to be triggered by Chelsea this summer, and we would not be able to compete with the Blues for wages. Besides, our multiple needs at multiple positions might require us to not put so many of our eggs in the striker basket.
If Manchester United agrees to sell to an English rival, 7amkickoff makes a strong argument in favor of signing Chicharito Hernandez. Hernandez is an extremely efficient goalscoring poacher whose goals/minute rate is right up there with the best forwards in world football. He is certainly worth a close look if United do decide to sell him, but I could just as easily see United refusing to sell to an EPL competitor. He could very likely become the replacement for Diego Costa at Atletico Madrid.
No need to worry, however, because I believe this position has already been addressed.
Josip Drmic - Nurnberg. A month ago, German pundit Lothar Matthaeus confidently predicted Drmic would be joining Arsenal for a reported 7 million pounds. Matthaeus was one of the first to report Robert Lewandowski's agreement to join Bayern Munich and he also correctly predicted Adrian Ramos's imminent signing for Dortmund. His record for getting these transfer stories right matches his pomposity when doing so.
Drmic is an up-and-coming 21 year old two-footed striker with pace to burn. He has scored 16 goals without much support for relegation-threatened Nurnberg this season, tied with Ramos for 3rd most in the Bundesliga. He is a very good dribbler, who can create a chance for himself as well as finish chances created by others. He is also versatile, as he can play on the wings or centrally, and could therefore realistically play in the same team as Giroud as well as being a genuine rotation option up front.
Check out this youtube highlight reel if you have never seen Drmic play. He looks like quite the diamond in the rough. A player like him would certainly cost more than 7 million if he had the exposure of the Premier League.
Drmic reportedly has a relegation release clause in his contract for a bargain 4.5 million pounds. Arsenal's reported 7 million pound bid makes a lot of sense in these circumstances. We are effectively paying 2.5 million for a first option on the player. Nurnberg will almost surely lose the player for less money if they do get relegated (and with 3 consecutive losses since the Drmic to Arsenal link went public, it looks increasingly likely that they will). Therefore Arsenal's offer provides the German club with an opportunity to accept a bid higher than his release clause before it kicks in. 7 million would constitute a great deal for both clubs involved.
And keep in mind that Wenger tends to get his business done as soon as possible in World Cup/Euro summers, to prevent the international competitions from inflating the price. Podolski and Giroud were both signed before Euro2012 was over. Nasri and Rosicky were signed before Euro2008 and World Cup 2006 began. Drmic looks set to start for the Swiss (who I think is a dark horse to do really well after dominating the qualifying stages) in the upcoming World Cup. If Matthaeus is correct that we have secured him, I applaud the club for acting so quickly and decisively. I would love to see Drmic develop into an even better player in the Arsenal shirt.
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