Tuesday, July 15, 2014

What About Messi?

The entire German team is getting credit for their victory, and one player from Argentina is getting all the blame.

Not Gonzalo Higuain or Rodrigo Palacio, who missed golden chances to take the lead.

Not Martin Demichelis, who lost his mark and allowed Mario Gotze to score.

All the blame is landing on Lionel Messi.

People are saying three things after the final: 1) Messi couldn't win the world cup, therefore he isn't the world's best player. 2) Messi in no way was the best player in the tournament and didn't deserve his award. And 3) Messi didn't win, killing his chances of being remembered as one of the best players of all time. I'll address all three arguments.

To be fair, Messi didn't have his best match in the Final. He really struggled to impose himself, and he missed a great chance to score in the second half when his shot dragged wide of the far post. As time wound down, Germany man-marked him and never let him get the ball.

It's too simplistic to say Messi failed to make an impact in the world's biggest match and therefore he isn't the world's best player. The fact is Messi DID have an impact on the match. He drew the constant attention of multiple German players with every run he made. Messi opened up spaces for Higuain and Palacio and Aguero and Lavezzi. That they couldn't take advantage of the extra space is not Messi's fault.

1) Does this loss mean Messi is no longer the world's best player?

This really shouldn't take much thought. Messi's main competition for the title of "best player in the world" is Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal. Ronaldo didn't get out of the group stage.

If World Cup success/failure is the deciding factor, Messi certainly has a better case than Ronaldo.

If you believe Ronaldo to be the best player in the world, go ahead and make the argument, but don't use this World Cup as evidence in your favor.

I'll be happy to point out the man who won 3 consecutive Ballon d'Ors, the man who became Barcelona's all-time leading goalscorer at 24 years old, the man who scored 200 La Liga goals faster than any player in history, and the man who is just 8 goals short of becoming La Liga's all-time leading goalscorer, a record he will break before he turns 28.

Leo Messi is the best player in the world.

2) Did Messi have the best World Cup?

Again, this shouldn't take much thought. Messi wasn't even the best player on his own team in this tournament. That would go to Javier Mascherano, who provided constant protection as the shield in front of the Argentina defense. Pablo Zabaleta also could make a case that he had a better tournament than Messi. The fact is Argentina's defense shined all tournament. They only trailed in a match for the 8 final minutes of their World Cup. The attack only scored 8 goals.

Messi himself played well in the group stage (against some light competition), but failed to score in the knockout rounds. He simply didn't have as good a tournament as his peers, if you weigh the elimination games appropriately.

I wouldn't even put him in the Top 10. In addition to Mascherano and Zabaleta, Colombia's James Rodriguez, Germany's Phillip Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mats Hummels, and Manuel Neuer, the Netherlands' Arjen Robben, Costa Rica's Keylor Navas, and Chile's Alexis Sanchez all could make a real case to say they had better tournaments than Messi.

Messi is still the best player in the world, but he didn't put together the best 7 matches in this tournament. He did not deserve the award he received (and by the look on his face, he didn't want it either).

3) Has Messi missed his chance to be known as the best player of all time?

I think there are two ways to look at this argument. One is, who would be better player if both were in their prime, on the pitch, at the same time? The second, perhaps more appropriate way to view the argument, is comparing players' careers.

There is strong evidence that advancements in fitness methods, nutrition, and technical coaching have significantly impacted the modern game. Basically, the entire pool of players is much better than they were 30 years ago.

One reason Maradona could run circles around players is because the players were easier to run around back then. They treated their bodies poorly and weren't as athletic as they are today. And they weren't coached to tackle as well.

Simply put, the players of today are more athletic, more fit, and coached better than the generations before them. Soccer has evolved. It is much more difficult to stand out as a superstar in the modern era than it was a generation ago.

The very fact that Messi is mentioned in the same breath as Pele or Maradona while playing in this era suggests that if they were able to face off against each other, Messi would be the best player on the pitch. And in that sense, yes, Messi is the best player of all time.

But will Messi have the best career in world soccer history?

This is a tougher argument. Messi already has the best La Liga career of all time, and I believe Messi will have best club career of all time when he hangs up his boots.

For those who view soccer as an Olympic-style event that only happens every four years (looking at you, US media) they might very well think only World Cup champions can be considered in the "greatest of all time" discussion.

This is obviously flawed logic, but it is clear he has not had as great an international career as the likes of Pele, Maradona, or Zidane.

Messi hasn't won a thing at senior international level. He won the U-21 World Cup, and the 2008 Olympics, but has never won the World Cup or the Copa America.

The question therefore becomes how much should international success weigh into the discussion?

Messi's success year-after-year at the club level is unparalleled. His failures at the international level are difficult to ignore (ironically, the woeful coaching of the Argentina team by Maradona 4 years ago has significantly hurt Messi's case in this regard).

Therefore, Messi's legacy will struggle to stand with the likes of Maradona, Pele, and Zidane when it's all said and done. Messi will be classified with the likes of Johann Cruyff, Paolo Maldini, Ferenc Puskas, Michel Platini, and Zico as one of the best players to never win a World Cup. Not a bad group to be in, but not in the top level either.

He does need a major trophy on the international level to cement his legacy. A great first step could happen next year in Chile at the Copa America.  Then again at the Super Copa America in the US in 2016, which will combine 16 teams from North and South America. If Messi can lead Argentina to victories in these tournaments, perhaps he can take momentum into Russia 2018 and win the World Cup.

Messi will be 31 years old in that tournament, which will likely be his last real chance to add a World Cup to his resume. It won't be easy, as South American teams normally struggle in European tournaments.

In all likelihood, by failing to win on Sunday, Messi has missed his chance. Messi probably will not have the best soccer career of all time.

But that doesn't mean Messi isn't the best player the world has ever seen. He just won't have the best resume.

Monday, July 14, 2014

Germans Win, Dynasty in the Making?

In a match where Argentina had by far the best chances to score, Germany ended on top with a goal from substitute Mario Gotze in the second half of extra time.

It was a fitting finish to a great World Cup, a tournament where 32 goals were scored by substitutes, the most in World Cup history.

10 years ago, Germany was knocked out of their group in Euro 2004. Placed in a group with the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and Latvia--Germany failed to win a single match in the tournament, drawing twice (failing to score against Latvia) and losing to the Czechs.

Rudi Voller was the German coach for that tournament. His team played very conservatively, an approach that had worked for Germany in the past. Germany fought all the way to the World Cup Finals in 2002 by parking the bus. Goalkeeper Oliver Kahn was the player of the tournament in 2002, suggesting Germany was perhaps fortunate to get as far as they did. But failing to score against Latvia was undeniably a low point for German football, and Voller was sacked. Jurgen Klinsmann and Jogi Loew were brought in to overhaul the entire national setup and leave the parked bus behind.

They decided to nurture a new generation of players who could play fast, attacking football. They wanted to create a specific style, focusing on passing on the ground from defense to attack as quickly as possible to create what they called "dynamic football."

Klinsmann and Loew got a lot of help from the Bundesliga. The German federation put a lot of pressure on all the German clubs in both the first and second divisions to fund youth academies. Klinsmann and Loew held workshops with all of the Bundesliga clubs to outline their principles and encouraged the Bundesliga clubs to play this style.

Attacking football requires fitter players who can run further and faster, so Klinsmann and Loew asked to monitor the fitness of the German players every three months. This was unpopular among the Bundesliga clubs. No club wanted Klinsmann pointing the finger saying this club's players have been trained properly and this club's players haven't. No club wanted to subject themselves to that kind of oversight. But for the good of German football, they bought in to Klinsmann and Loew's vision and agreed to their requests.

Klinsmann's first and only German World Cup squad included his new breed of young players who had been trained to play his style from a young age. Phillip Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Per Mertesacker, and Lukas Podolski (average age 21 in 2006) played in every match for the Germans all the way to the semi-finals. It was an impressive performance for the Germans as many in the country feared a repeat of the embarrassment of Euro 2004.

From that point on the Germans have reached at least the semi finals of every major international competition: finalists in Euro 2008, and semifinalists in the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012. Now they are finally champions.

Besides Miroslav Klose and backup goalkeeper Roman Weidenfeller; Lahm, Podolski, Schweinsteiger, and Mertesacker are now the experienced veterans in the German squad. Klinsmann and Loew's revolution has worked. Germany has cultivated a golden generation of talented players just hitting their prime.

Manuel Neuer is 28. Sami Khedira is 27. Leading scorer Thomas Muller is just 24. Playmakers Mesut Ozil and Toni Kroos are 25 and 24, respectively. Defenders Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng are both just 25. Final hero Mario Gotze is 22. Dortmund left back Erik Durm is also just 22.

Marco Reus was injured before the tournament and missed the World Cup, but he might just be the best player Germany has, and he is only 25. The Bender twins, who also missed trips to Brazil due to injury, are also 25.

And there are more young Germans fighting to break into the team. Marc-Andre ter Stegen is just 22 and has already secured a move to Barcelona. Julian Draxler and Matthias Ginter, both just 20, were in the squad in Brazil and are tipped for big things in the future. Schalke teenagers Max Meyer and Leon Goretzka have great potential as well. And don't forget 19-year-old attacking midfielder Serge Gnabry, who took a real step forward for Arsenal last season.

More great young players will follow. And Germany will continue to be a real force. The question therefore is, will anyone catch them? With Spain and Italy in decline, Germany is the clear favorite to win Euro 2016 in France and the Russian World Cup in 2018.

Yesterday could just be the first of many achievements enjoyed by the Germans in the coming years with this group of young, excellent players. Germany has the makings of a dynasty that could enjoy the same 6-year period of success that Spain just did.

And for this embarrassment of riches, all credit should go to to Klinsmann and Loew--the masterminds of German's football revolution a decade ago.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Will Argentina Finally Beat Germany?

Argentina has faced Germany in the quarter-final stage of the last two World Cups. Jens Lehmann's penalty heroics knocked them out in 2006 and a superb German team performance led to a 4-0 victory in Cape Town four years ago.

This year, Argentina have had the good fortune of avoiding the Germans until the Final. No European team has ever won a World Cup in the Americas. Will Germany be the first?

Germany arrives on a roll, having just destroyed hosts Brazil 7-1 on Tuesday. The Germans started with an early set piece goal, and then passed the ball into the net 4 times in 6 minutes to take a 5-0 lead into halftime.

Watch the highlights of the Argentina/Germany match 4 years ago. The ease with which Germany scored their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th goals. It reminds you of the Brazilian demolition that took place on Tuesday.

Germany does well against South American opposition. They have struggled against more physical tests like Algeria and Ghana who played a direct, attacking style. The whole world knows Argentina has great forwards, but do they have a good enough defense to keep the Germans from dominating yet again?

Germany found most of their success in 2010 down their left hand side, or Argentina's right. In Cape Town, Argentina played Nicolas Otamendi, a center back, out of position on right. Lukas Podolski tore him apart. Now Argentina plays Pablo Zabaleta in that position, arguably the best right back in the world. Consider that problem fixed.

Against Brazil, most of what Germany created came down their right, where Phillip Lahm overlapped Thomas Muller, or quickly through the middle, storming forward in numbers after a midfield tackle. Argentina's left back Marcos Rojo has had a strong World Cup, and Javier Mascherano has been possibly the best player in the tournament in central midfield.

Defensively, Germany might struggle to deal with pace, especially on their left hand side, where Benedikt Howedes is playing out of position as a left back, and Mesut Ozil, who is not a natural winger, is asked to track back and help Howedes defend. Mats Hummels and Per Mertesacker lack pace--they were exposed by Algeria and have not played together for Germany since then. Jerome Boateng sometimes gets caught out of position and is prone to occasional lapses in concentration.

Thats where Messi enters in. Messi is at his best cutting in from the right hand side onto his stronger left foot. Lavezzi provides pace, and so would Aguero if he is fit. Gonzalo Higuain will stay on the shoulder of the last defender and be a threat for through balls in behind a defense that has a vulnerability to through balls. Manuel Neuer has performed admirably as a sweeper keeper, rushing out of his box to make last-ditch clearances. One mistake, however, and Argentina could score easily.

Looking at form, Germany should win this. They are on fire and have easily been the most impressive team in the tournament. They have scored 18 goals and conceded just 4. They've only gone to extra time once in knockout play. And they've never needed penalties.

But looking at the matchup, Argentina seems to have the players who could really test the Germans' weaknesses, perhaps more than any other team in the tournament. Argentina has been stronger in defense than in years' past, and the quality of their attack is unquestioned.

South American teams have done really well in the World Cup for two reasons. First, they are used to the hot, humid conditions. But more importantly, they have enjoyed fantastic support in the stadiums. It was a real shame that 4 of the South American teams got grouped together in the knockout rounds, as I would have expected Chile and Colombia to go further in the tournament against different opponents.

It's a tough match to predict, but when two teams seem to be equal on paper, I give the advantage to the team with a superior goalkeeper. Manuel Neuer is the best goalkeeper in the world. Sergio Romero is nowhere close to that.

So I'll pick Germany. 2-nil.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Arsenal Signs Alexis Sanchez

An Absolute Masterstroke.

Arsenal has bought a world class player. And with the money spent, Arsenal might just play a big role in financing the departure of the EPL's best player for the second season running.

First, Sanchez is a great addition to the team. His speed, strength, and dribbling ability helps him create his own chances. He has a good eye for a pass and can create chances for others.

According to WhoScored.com, Sanchez was Barcelona's second-best player last season, behind only Messi. The best Barcelona player not named Messi. Think about that.

Sanchez scored 19 goals in just 27 starts, the second-most on the team, despite being the 3rd or 4th attacking option behind Messi, Neymar, and sometimes Pedro.

Sanchez should compliment Giroud very nicely. Having trained at Barcelona for three years, Sanchez possesses the intelligence and movement to find Giroud for 1-2s and break open defenses even in tight spaces. But Sanchez also thrives in space. The prospect of Ozil finding passes for the Chilean to start a break is mouth-watering.

Make no mistake, Sanchez joins Arsenal and instantly becomes the team's #1 attacking option. Ozil will provide the supply. Giroud will provide the link up play and occupy the center backs. Walcott will provide spacing by threatening to get in behind the defense. Ramsey will make late runs in to the penalty area. And Sanchez will be the fulcrum of the attack.

Sanchez was forced to play the Walcott role at Barcelona. The team didn't run through him, it ran through Messi. A reduced role in a less direct style of play didn't suit Sanchez's qualities as a player. His adaptation to a very unique style of play was delayed by injuries in his first season at the Camp Nou. He was good, but not great in his lone season with Pep Guardiola.

Guardiola left and Tito Vilanova tried to keep the team playing the same way in 2012. Sanchez struggled to fit in and he began to feel the wrath of the Barcelona fans. Read this excerpt from BarcaBlaugranes.com's 2012/13 Season in Review.
"Expectations were fairly low for Alexis Sanchez going into the 2012-13 season as just about everybody expected him to fail. And at first all those critics appeared to be right as Alexis struggled to find the back of the net. It took him 15 La Liga appearances to find the back of the net for the first time - week 23 (April 10th) against Getafe. It wasn't for lack of trying though as Alexis consistently found himself in dangerous scoring positions, but just couldn't find a way past opposing goalkeepers..."
"But it was like that goal against Getafe was all that Alexis needed to break the slump he was in. Over the last three months of the season the forward made 12 league appearances, nine starts, during which he scored 7 goals and added 6 assists..."
"Alexis didn't change his game to get better production - he played the same way he did before, but once he started bagging goals the confidence returned and Alexis started playing without the constant pressure."
Remind you of anyone? You could substitute 'Alexis Sanchez' for 'Aaron Ramsey' and use the above language to describe each players' 2012/13 campaigns.

Both struggled with confidence as they were put under pressure by the fans. Both continued to work hard and never gave up. Both kept finding dangerous positions. And both worked through the tough times to come out world class players on the other side.

It's no surprise Sanchez improved further under the coaching of Gerardo Martino, who started the transition away from Guardiola's tiki-taka to a faster, more direct attack.

Sanchez had shined in this style as the main attacking option with Chile and with Udinese--where he was so good that Barcelona shelled out serious money (roughly the same transfer fee that Arsenal paid today) for the 22-year-old in 2011.

Sanchez thrives in space, and tiki-taka built up the play too slowly for Sanchez to truly showcase his ability. When Martino encouraged the team to attack more quickly, Sanchez was able to take the momentum from the spring of 2012 and keep it for an entire season.

Sanchez scored some magnificent goals for Barcelona this year, and perhaps most impressively, he saved his best work for against the biggest opponents.

His Classico goal in October was spectacular. In February, he put Barcelona ahead in the 6th minute with a chip from an impossible angle against Valencia. And in Barcelona's final match of the season, Sanchez's near-post rocket flew by Thibaut Courtois to put his team, albeit briefly, in position to win the Spanish title.

Arsenal's struggles against the big teams last season is well documented. The Gunners won just once in 8 Premier League matches against the Manchester clubs, Liverpool, and Chelsea. In Sanchez, Arsenal has secured a player who shines in the big moments. Sanchez has technical qualities that will improve the team. But I believe his mental strength, which will strengthen the team psychologically, is the best aspect of this transfer.

Arsenal needed a world class forward, and got one in Sanchez. He is a great signing for the club, just like Mesut Ozil was last September. And the parallels continue.

The purchase of Mesut Ozil helped Real Madrid raise the funds needed to purchase Gareth Bale last summer. Arsenal bought a world class midfielder with funds that were used to steal away the Premier League's best player from our biggest rival.

It seems very likely that Arsenal's transfer payment for Sanchez will be directly reinvested by Barcelona to poach Luis Suarez from Liverpool, again removing one of the world's best players from the Premier League from a club that has reasserted top-4 credentials.

Arsenal's money could now be spent luring away Liverpool's most intimidating player (in more ways than one). Just adding Sanchez would likely have been enough for Arsenal to leapfrog the Reds next season. And just losing Suarez would have likely knocked Liverpool down a few pegs. Arsenal's money just might make both happen.

THAT is money well spent!