Yesterday NBA Commissioner Adam Silver announced that he was suspending Donald Sterling from the LA Clippers for life. He also encouraged the other 29 NBA owners to vote in favor of forcing Sterling to sell his team. In order for that to happen, Silver needs 3/4ths of the owners to vote Sterling out.
By now the recording of Sterling's disturbing racist comments are well known throughout the world. The 24-hour news cycle exposed Sterling's embarrassing plantation mentality toward minorities. Numerous sponsors pulled their sponsorship of Sterling's Clippers, and in last night's playoff game (a Clippers win, by the way) most of the corporate billboards in Staples Center were covered up. Fans and players threatened to boycott not just Clippers games, but NBA playoff games across the country.
Many people have raised free speech or right to privacy arguments to sympathize with Sterling. They have said the NBA has no right to ban Sterling from his games and force the sale of his team as punishment for statements he made in private. These arguments are extremely misguided.
The right to free speech protects an individual against the government, not an individual against a private business like the NBA. Therefore Sterling is in no danger of being imprisoned for his comments, but he is not immune to business repercussions. It's no different to employee who gets fired for posting harsh criticism of their boss online, or pictures of themselves on a vacation when they've called in sick to work. Yes the employee has a right to post anything, but the employer has a right to fire them for unprofessional behavior.
The recording may or may not have happened without Sterling's consent, and if Sterling had not consented to the recording, he may have had his rights to privacy violated under California law (California requires all parties to consent to any recording, as opposed to the majority of states that only require one party's consent).
In this circumstance, Sterling's case is against his mistress, V. Stiviano. Sterling could argue that the intense media coverage and consequential NBA punishment were caused by the possibly illegal recording, and therefore Sterling might be able to argue that this violation of his privacy rights made him suffer severe economic damages. But his only case is against the person who illegally recorded him--the mistress Stiviano--not against TMZ, Deadspin, or the NBA. Sterling had been financially supporting this woman since 2010, so it would seem impossible for him to recover the full extent of his economic damages from Stiviano, but that's his only option under a privacy lawsuit.
Even if Sterling wants to pursue this sort of lawsuit, he'll have to get in line. Sterling's estranged wife is already suing Stiviano for all she's worth. Mrs. Sterling filed a lawsuit in March claiming that since Stiviano met Sterling at the 2010 Super Bowl, Sterling has paid for a $1.8 million duplex, 2 Bentleys, 1 Ferrari, 1 Range Rover, and nearly $240,000 in "living expenses" to Stiviano in 4 years--all constituting community property given to Stiviano without Mrs. Sterling's knowledge. Mrs. Sterling's lawsuit could bankrupt Stiviano, meaning Donald would have nothing left to recover if he pursued a privacy lawsuit now.
If Sterling has a case against the NBA, it would have to be that the NBA failed to follow its own rules in handing down the fine, lifetime ban, and especially in encouraging the forced sale of the Clippers. Michael McCann from McCann Sports Law sets out Sterling's potential case in this brilliant article. There is a valid argument here. The provisions Silver is citing to force the sale of the Clippers seem to be intended to protect the NBA from a financial leach. There is no morals clause in the NBA Constitution. This section refers to the league's right to step in and save a franchise unable to pay its bills, and the Clippers are a financially healthy business at the moment.
However, evidence was building to the contrary. Corporate sponsorships were being dropped, and the Clippers' opponent in the playoffs, the Golden State Warriors, reportedly planned to walk off the court before tip-off if Sterling wasn't severely punished before the game. NBA Players' Association Vice President Roger Mason Jr. claimed other playoff teams in other cities planned to follow suit. The NBA was facing the prospect of losing its most valuable resource--the players--if something wasn't done.
That's the key here. Sterling's comments were so reprehensible that the players were willing to walk away from the playoffs to ensure something was done. A move like that would have cost the league billions of dollars. Timing was everything.
If this recording had been leaked in the offseason, or even at the beginning of the regular season (when the NBA comes in 3rd, behind pro and college football, in ratings) I do not believe Sterling's punishment would have been so harsh. I believe this for two reasons: 1) the players would not have had nearly as much leverage to get what they wanted; and 2) the threat of economic loss would not have been great enough to justify such a harsh punishment.
There are two things to consider about Commissioner Silver in this situation.
First, he is hired by the 30 NBA owners to protect their financial interests. A work stoppage during the playoffs risks a huge sum of money. The NBA playoffs take place after the NCAA tournament for a reason. Its when the competition is lowest, and consequently when the NBA's product is most profitable. While some owners such as Dallas's Mark Cuban may have been worried about the "slippery slope" of ousting an owner as punishment for private statements, the owners were more worried about the potential enormous loss of revenue for the league if it no longer had a product to put on the air. Viewers might switch to the NHL and never come back.
Yes Silver made a strong symbolic statement that racism will not be tolerated in the NBA. Yes his actions were largely applauded by the media for standing against racism. I don't dispute that Silver should be applauded for these reasons, but in the end, I'm not so sure this punishment was motivated by a sense of justice. Silver took decisive action to protect the financial interests of 29 of the 30 NBA owners. The symbolic victory was nothing other than a positive biproduct of an action intended to keep the NBA as profitable as possible.
Second, Silver is a brilliant lawyer. He earned a law degree from University of Chicago, one of the best schools in the country, in 1988. He clerked for the Southern District of New York and worked for a New York City law firm after graduating from Chicago. He has worked for the NBA since 1992, and has fought for the owners through 2 different work stoppages. Silver is a great negotiator, and he won the faith of the owners after the 2011 lockout in particular (its clear the owners got a great deal from the lockout, as the value of NBA franchises has doubled since the new CBA was signed).
Protecting the financial interests of the owners involves protecting against potentially costly lawsuits. Much has been made of Sterling's propensity for lawsuits and how much time he spends in the courtroom, but the NBA hires a lawyer to act as commissioner in order to foresee potential legal issues before they arise and adequately guard the league against them. I have no doubt Silver is confident he can make the case that the NBA followed its own rules when punishing Sterling.
Silver will be able to point to the lost sponsors as the first domino in what could have been a disastrous loss of revenue. He can likely depend on testimony from the NBA Players' Association that they intended to boycott the playoffs unless drastic measures were taken to punish Sterling. He undoubtedly logged every conversation and meeting that took place in the 72 hours between when the recording went public and the punishment was handed down. He will be able to point to all of this as evidence supporting his actions.
Had the recording gone public at a different time, when the potential economic loss wasn't as drastic, I don't think Silver would have a strong enough justification for this action. Therefore I'm happy the story broke when it did. Timing provided Silver a sound legal justification for the strongest punishment possible. And there is simply no room, in any profession, for an employer with such a bigoted mentality toward employees.
Stories like this can do a lot to improve and progress American culture; culture Sterling clings to as an excuse for his unacceptable attitude.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Arsenal Crushes Hapless Newcastle
Arsenal moved one step closer to clinching 4th place with their win over Newcastle at the Emirates yesterday. It wasn't much of a contest, as Newcastle has completely quit on their season. More on them later.
An early Koscielny goal from a Cazorla free kick put Arsenal ahead, and only a series of impressive saves from Tim Krul kept the Gunners from opening a 3 or 4 goal lead before half time. Giroud missed two chances after an excellent Arteta pass played him in behind the defense, but the rebound of the second attempt found an offside Ozil, who calmly slotted the ball into the net.
Ozil was fantastic yesterday, constantly getting in dangerous positions and fooling defenders with pieces of great skill. His cross was inch-perfect to Giroud for the third and final goal of the match.
The win puts Arsenal 4 points ahead of Everton in the race for the 4th and final Champions League position. Next up for the Toffees is Man City at home--a match that both teams will desperately need to win to keep their respective ambitions alive. If Everton lose on Saturday, Arsenal will have clinched 4th before they play West Brom on Sunday.
Ironically for Everton, a victory against City would put local rivals Liverpool back in pole position to win the league. While I don't doubt that Everton's players will want to win, they are professional competitive athletes after all, it's an interesting situation for the Everton supporters. Arsenal's recent upturn in form and Everton's 2 losses in their last 3 matches make their Champions League hopes slim, at best. Perhaps the Everton supporters would rather see City go on to beat Liverpool for the title than winning Saturday, helping out their Red neighbors and keeping their 4th place dream alive, only for Arsenal to wake them up from it with a win over West Brom the next day.
Back to Newcastle. This was Alan Pardew's first match on the touchline after his ban for headbutting Hull player David Meyler. Newcastle has completely tanked in the spring after selling Yohan Cabaye to PSG in January. They've now lost 6 matches in a row, and 9 of 12 since the sale of their best player. While Newcastle was just 8 points behind 5th place Everton on February 2nd, they are now 23 points behind.
There are few signs of improving. Newcastle's goal difference is -18, 5th worst in the league. This suggests they've been somewhat lucky to win the matches they have. Newcastle has just 4 draws. The best player on their roster, Loic Remy, is on loan and will likely not be on the team again next season. Unless big changes happen, Newcastle looks likely to be in another relegation dogfight next year.
Owner Mike Ashley is notorious for keeping his club on a tight budget, but he made a truly costly mistake when he signed Pardew to a ludicrous 8-year contract extension. He did so to reward the manager after Newcastle's impressive 2011/2012 season in which they finished in 5th, one place above that year's Champions League winners Chelsea. Pardew's contract runs until 2020, but his team's form has truly suffered since he signed it. It seems very unlikely that he will stay at the club that long.
Newcastle was nearly relegated last season, and despite an up-turn in form in the first half of this season, the sale of Cabaye has sank Newcastle into relegation form once again this spring. The Newcastle supporters have completely turned on Pardew. They were very visible and vocal with their displeasure. Numerous banners and chants could be seen throughout the match calling for Pardew to be sacked.
Newcastle's supporters understand that their beloved club can't compete with the big boys' money, but they think their club should be challenging for a European place, and comfortably in the top half of the table every year.
Luckily for them, there is an available manager who has a track record of doing exactly that: David Moyes. Pardew's buyout won't be cheap, but Moyes seems to be a perfect fit. He succeeded at a northern club for a decade, and despite his failed stint at Old Trafford, the Scot is a clear upgrade over Pardew in every way.
An early Koscielny goal from a Cazorla free kick put Arsenal ahead, and only a series of impressive saves from Tim Krul kept the Gunners from opening a 3 or 4 goal lead before half time. Giroud missed two chances after an excellent Arteta pass played him in behind the defense, but the rebound of the second attempt found an offside Ozil, who calmly slotted the ball into the net.
Ozil was fantastic yesterday, constantly getting in dangerous positions and fooling defenders with pieces of great skill. His cross was inch-perfect to Giroud for the third and final goal of the match.
The win puts Arsenal 4 points ahead of Everton in the race for the 4th and final Champions League position. Next up for the Toffees is Man City at home--a match that both teams will desperately need to win to keep their respective ambitions alive. If Everton lose on Saturday, Arsenal will have clinched 4th before they play West Brom on Sunday.
Ironically for Everton, a victory against City would put local rivals Liverpool back in pole position to win the league. While I don't doubt that Everton's players will want to win, they are professional competitive athletes after all, it's an interesting situation for the Everton supporters. Arsenal's recent upturn in form and Everton's 2 losses in their last 3 matches make their Champions League hopes slim, at best. Perhaps the Everton supporters would rather see City go on to beat Liverpool for the title than winning Saturday, helping out their Red neighbors and keeping their 4th place dream alive, only for Arsenal to wake them up from it with a win over West Brom the next day.
Back to Newcastle. This was Alan Pardew's first match on the touchline after his ban for headbutting Hull player David Meyler. Newcastle has completely tanked in the spring after selling Yohan Cabaye to PSG in January. They've now lost 6 matches in a row, and 9 of 12 since the sale of their best player. While Newcastle was just 8 points behind 5th place Everton on February 2nd, they are now 23 points behind.
There are few signs of improving. Newcastle's goal difference is -18, 5th worst in the league. This suggests they've been somewhat lucky to win the matches they have. Newcastle has just 4 draws. The best player on their roster, Loic Remy, is on loan and will likely not be on the team again next season. Unless big changes happen, Newcastle looks likely to be in another relegation dogfight next year.
Owner Mike Ashley is notorious for keeping his club on a tight budget, but he made a truly costly mistake when he signed Pardew to a ludicrous 8-year contract extension. He did so to reward the manager after Newcastle's impressive 2011/2012 season in which they finished in 5th, one place above that year's Champions League winners Chelsea. Pardew's contract runs until 2020, but his team's form has truly suffered since he signed it. It seems very unlikely that he will stay at the club that long.
Newcastle was nearly relegated last season, and despite an up-turn in form in the first half of this season, the sale of Cabaye has sank Newcastle into relegation form once again this spring. The Newcastle supporters have completely turned on Pardew. They were very visible and vocal with their displeasure. Numerous banners and chants could be seen throughout the match calling for Pardew to be sacked.
Newcastle's supporters understand that their beloved club can't compete with the big boys' money, but they think their club should be challenging for a European place, and comfortably in the top half of the table every year.
Luckily for them, there is an available manager who has a track record of doing exactly that: David Moyes. Pardew's buyout won't be cheap, but Moyes seems to be a perfect fit. He succeeded at a northern club for a decade, and despite his failed stint at Old Trafford, the Scot is a clear upgrade over Pardew in every way.
Monday, April 28, 2014
EPL Review: April 26-27
I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again...It's a good thing I don't gamble on the EPL. While I got most of my relegation-race predictions right, I would have missed every single match involving the top 5 this weekend.
Liverpool 0 - Chelsea 2
I completely wrote off Chelsea's chances of winning at Anfield. I obviously underestimated the largeness of Mourinho's bus. Chelsea parked it in front of the Anfield goal, putting 10 behind the ball and frustrating Liverpool all match.
As reported before the weekend, Chelsea fielded a very weakened team--including a rare start for Tomas Kalas. It didn't matter. Chelsea left no space for Liverpool to get in behind. And they beat the most in-form team in the league at Anfield.
Perhaps Mourinho revealed the Reds' kryptonite. For as good as they've been all season, Liverpool really struggled when they weren't able to get their extremely fast players in behind the opposing defense. Mourinho outcoached his former pupil, Brendan Rogers. At the end of the match Rogers looked like he was going to weep.
Liverpool may have missed Jordan Henderson, but I doubt he would have been the type to open up Chelsea's wall of defenders. Simply, Liverpool needs a few more clever, creative players to open up a conservative defense like Chelsea's. They are completely reliant on Suarez in this area. Players like Coutinho and Joe Allen need more space than Chelsea afforded yesterday.
Even Gerrard is more of a long passer and set-piece taker. Chelsea started Mikel, Ivanovic, Kalas, Matic, and Ba. These players neutralized Liverpool's set pieces and headed away Gerrard's long passes.
I realize this is easier said than done. Mourinho's tactical pragmatism is obvious. There's a reason the man has won everything, everywhere.
Demba Ba capitalized on a Gerrard slip to put Chelsea ahead. Chelsea scored again in stoppage time as Liverpool pushed everyone too far forward searching for an equalizer.
Going into the weekend, I thought Arsenal had a faint chance of catching the Blues at 3rd place. Those hopes are dead now. But Chelsea's title hopes aren't dead yet. Neither are Liverpool's for that matter. But both do still need help. 2 more wins won't do it alone. They now need City to slip up.
Crystal Palace 0 - Man City 2
Palace had the second-best form in the league before losing at home to City. They don't anymore.
To be fair, I thought Yaya Toure was still injured, and Toure scored City's magnificent 2nd goal. Palace had secured their top flight status before even taking the pitch Sunday, and they played like a team whose job was done.
\City's 2 first half goals was enough to secure 3 points. They now sit 3 points behind Liverpool and 2 behind Chelsea with one game at hand on their title rivals. Crucially, City has an 8 goal advantage on goal difference. Having won the league on goal difference two years ago, City is in a great position to do exactly that again.
Next up for City: suddenly struggling Everton.
Southampton 2 - Everton 0
Two own goals won the match for Southampton in a match that almost surely kills Everton's chances of playing in next season's Champions League.
The Toffees have dropped unexpected points to Palace and now Southampton in the run-in. Perhaps they were looking ahead to next week's match against City and forgot that beating Southampton was no guarantee. 7 Everton players missed the match through injury, including both first choice center backs.
Southampton took advantage. Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, and Luke Shaw all played well as they seek to earn a spot on England's World Cup squad. Jack Cork and Nathaniel Clyne were outstanding as well.
The Saints were in the 3rd tier of the English League just 4 years ago. Their rise has been truly remarkable. If Southampton can keep the core of this team together next season, they could push on and make a real challenge for a Europa League, or even a Champions League position. Southampton's team is very young and very talented. With another year of experience under their belt, there's no telling how well this team can do.
Sadly, I doubt the core of this team will stay together long enough for the Saints to reap significant rewards. The Saints face many ominous questions in the summer. Shaw and Lallana will almost surely get bought by a bigger club. Manager Mauricio Pocchetino has yet to extend his contract. The Saints will have a lot of work to do to keep the progression of their team moving forward.
But the main result of Saturday's match is that Arsenal now only needs to win 2 of their next three games to guarantee 4th place. That starts with Newcastle today.
More to come on the Arsenal-Newcastle match on the blog tomorrow.
Liverpool 0 - Chelsea 2
I completely wrote off Chelsea's chances of winning at Anfield. I obviously underestimated the largeness of Mourinho's bus. Chelsea parked it in front of the Anfield goal, putting 10 behind the ball and frustrating Liverpool all match.
As reported before the weekend, Chelsea fielded a very weakened team--including a rare start for Tomas Kalas. It didn't matter. Chelsea left no space for Liverpool to get in behind. And they beat the most in-form team in the league at Anfield.
Perhaps Mourinho revealed the Reds' kryptonite. For as good as they've been all season, Liverpool really struggled when they weren't able to get their extremely fast players in behind the opposing defense. Mourinho outcoached his former pupil, Brendan Rogers. At the end of the match Rogers looked like he was going to weep.
Liverpool may have missed Jordan Henderson, but I doubt he would have been the type to open up Chelsea's wall of defenders. Simply, Liverpool needs a few more clever, creative players to open up a conservative defense like Chelsea's. They are completely reliant on Suarez in this area. Players like Coutinho and Joe Allen need more space than Chelsea afforded yesterday.
Even Gerrard is more of a long passer and set-piece taker. Chelsea started Mikel, Ivanovic, Kalas, Matic, and Ba. These players neutralized Liverpool's set pieces and headed away Gerrard's long passes.
I realize this is easier said than done. Mourinho's tactical pragmatism is obvious. There's a reason the man has won everything, everywhere.
Demba Ba capitalized on a Gerrard slip to put Chelsea ahead. Chelsea scored again in stoppage time as Liverpool pushed everyone too far forward searching for an equalizer.
Going into the weekend, I thought Arsenal had a faint chance of catching the Blues at 3rd place. Those hopes are dead now. But Chelsea's title hopes aren't dead yet. Neither are Liverpool's for that matter. But both do still need help. 2 more wins won't do it alone. They now need City to slip up.
Crystal Palace 0 - Man City 2
Palace had the second-best form in the league before losing at home to City. They don't anymore.
To be fair, I thought Yaya Toure was still injured, and Toure scored City's magnificent 2nd goal. Palace had secured their top flight status before even taking the pitch Sunday, and they played like a team whose job was done.
\City's 2 first half goals was enough to secure 3 points. They now sit 3 points behind Liverpool and 2 behind Chelsea with one game at hand on their title rivals. Crucially, City has an 8 goal advantage on goal difference. Having won the league on goal difference two years ago, City is in a great position to do exactly that again.
Next up for City: suddenly struggling Everton.
Southampton 2 - Everton 0
Two own goals won the match for Southampton in a match that almost surely kills Everton's chances of playing in next season's Champions League.
The Toffees have dropped unexpected points to Palace and now Southampton in the run-in. Perhaps they were looking ahead to next week's match against City and forgot that beating Southampton was no guarantee. 7 Everton players missed the match through injury, including both first choice center backs.
Southampton took advantage. Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, and Luke Shaw all played well as they seek to earn a spot on England's World Cup squad. Jack Cork and Nathaniel Clyne were outstanding as well.
The Saints were in the 3rd tier of the English League just 4 years ago. Their rise has been truly remarkable. If Southampton can keep the core of this team together next season, they could push on and make a real challenge for a Europa League, or even a Champions League position. Southampton's team is very young and very talented. With another year of experience under their belt, there's no telling how well this team can do.
Sadly, I doubt the core of this team will stay together long enough for the Saints to reap significant rewards. The Saints face many ominous questions in the summer. Shaw and Lallana will almost surely get bought by a bigger club. Manager Mauricio Pocchetino has yet to extend his contract. The Saints will have a lot of work to do to keep the progression of their team moving forward.
But the main result of Saturday's match is that Arsenal now only needs to win 2 of their next three games to guarantee 4th place. That starts with Newcastle today.
More to come on the Arsenal-Newcastle match on the blog tomorrow.
Friday, April 25, 2014
EPL Preview: April 26-27
While Liverpool can't clinch their first Premier League title until next week, a win over Chelsea this weekend could end the contest for all intents and purposes. Chelsea is rumored to be considering fielding a much-weakened team for their Sunday trip to Anfield, as they look to conserve their players for the upcoming Champions League semi final 2nd leg in midweek. Manchester City visit on-fire Crystal Palace, who has beaten both Everton and Chelsea in their recent run of good form, without key players Yaya Toure and David Silva. Needless to say, the drama and suspense of the title chase is fading quickly, and I would expect the gap between Liverpool and their chasers to grow even wider this weekend.
But not relegation battle. Here are 3 matches that may play a pivotal role in who goes down:
Fulham v Hull City
Fulham hosts the FA Cup finalists and may need to win to stay off the bottom of the league. The upcoming match between Cardiff and Sunderland (more on that below) means that a loss, combined with a draw in Sunderland, would do just that. An even worse scenario would be a loss combined with a victory by either club, because it would put the Cottagers a win behind with just two matches left to play.
Fulham's goal difference is hopeless, so they need as many points as they can get. Manager Felix Magath will be hoping to secure all 3 tomorrow. A draw won't really help Fulham here. Magath's a master of avoiding the drop, and he'll need to be, because he's facing serious competition from the teams behind Fulham in order to stay up.
Hull was beaten soundly by Arsenal last weekend, but their two January signings, the strikers Jelavic and Long, have been in good form this spring. They could put Fulham's defense (by far the worst in the EPL) under serious pressure. Long's pace in particular could exploit Fulham's slow back line. And Fulham's midfield is one of the few in England that won't be able to take advantage of Hull's lack of pace in that area. In a match where Fulham needs to push forward to score and win, Hull has the quality in attack to hit Fulham on the counter. I'll predict a Hull away victory here.
Things are looking grim for Fulham at the moment, after their future looked so bright two short weeks ago. I simply didn't expect the Cottagers to be overtaken by the teams behind them, but Sunderland and Cardiff have taken unexpected points in recent weeks.
Man United v Norwich
At least things aren't as ominous for Fulham as they are at both these clubs right now. Both have sacked their managers this month, and their replacements are about as unproven as it gets in the EPL.
I've written plenty about United and Moyes, so I won't re-hash that now. Ryan Giggs takes over as player-manager for the remainder of the season. I would expect the players to play harder for him than they did for their beleaguered former manager. Therefore I expect United to win comfortably tomorrow.
Norwich fought admirably against Liverpool, but a visit to Old Trafford is a different story. The Canaries have the worst away record in the league, and they look destined to be overtaken by at least one of the current bottom three. I think this is the weekend they fall into the relegation zone, and I don't think they'll pull out before season's end. The final 2 matches against City and Arsenal won't be any easier for Norwich.
Sunderland v Cardiff
Sunderland took 4 points from two matches against title challengers City and Chelsea last week. They've found the perfect time to find their best form. Cardiff has also taken 4 points from their last two matches, albeit against weaker opposition. The Bluebirds have a favorable schedule remaining against Newcastle and Chelsea (both of whom should have very little to play for), but Sunderland has a game in hand.
This is the traditional relegation 6-pointer. It's simply a must-win for both clubs. The loser would almost surely be doomed to spend next year in the Championship, and 3 points will be much more valuable to both sides than 1. This is the must-watch match of the weekend. It promises to be one of the more entertaining matches all season, as both clubs will do everything to win.
I expect Sunderland to do just that, despite their awful home record. Cardiff has only won two away matches all season. Its hard to see them winning in the Stadium of Light with so much on the line. Sunderland takes serious momentum into this weekend after taking points from two opponents in the title race. They may just believe Premier League destiny is on their side.
But not relegation battle. Here are 3 matches that may play a pivotal role in who goes down:
Fulham v Hull City
Fulham hosts the FA Cup finalists and may need to win to stay off the bottom of the league. The upcoming match between Cardiff and Sunderland (more on that below) means that a loss, combined with a draw in Sunderland, would do just that. An even worse scenario would be a loss combined with a victory by either club, because it would put the Cottagers a win behind with just two matches left to play.
Fulham's goal difference is hopeless, so they need as many points as they can get. Manager Felix Magath will be hoping to secure all 3 tomorrow. A draw won't really help Fulham here. Magath's a master of avoiding the drop, and he'll need to be, because he's facing serious competition from the teams behind Fulham in order to stay up.
Hull was beaten soundly by Arsenal last weekend, but their two January signings, the strikers Jelavic and Long, have been in good form this spring. They could put Fulham's defense (by far the worst in the EPL) under serious pressure. Long's pace in particular could exploit Fulham's slow back line. And Fulham's midfield is one of the few in England that won't be able to take advantage of Hull's lack of pace in that area. In a match where Fulham needs to push forward to score and win, Hull has the quality in attack to hit Fulham on the counter. I'll predict a Hull away victory here.
Things are looking grim for Fulham at the moment, after their future looked so bright two short weeks ago. I simply didn't expect the Cottagers to be overtaken by the teams behind them, but Sunderland and Cardiff have taken unexpected points in recent weeks.
Man United v Norwich
At least things aren't as ominous for Fulham as they are at both these clubs right now. Both have sacked their managers this month, and their replacements are about as unproven as it gets in the EPL.
I've written plenty about United and Moyes, so I won't re-hash that now. Ryan Giggs takes over as player-manager for the remainder of the season. I would expect the players to play harder for him than they did for their beleaguered former manager. Therefore I expect United to win comfortably tomorrow.
Norwich fought admirably against Liverpool, but a visit to Old Trafford is a different story. The Canaries have the worst away record in the league, and they look destined to be overtaken by at least one of the current bottom three. I think this is the weekend they fall into the relegation zone, and I don't think they'll pull out before season's end. The final 2 matches against City and Arsenal won't be any easier for Norwich.
Sunderland v Cardiff
Sunderland took 4 points from two matches against title challengers City and Chelsea last week. They've found the perfect time to find their best form. Cardiff has also taken 4 points from their last two matches, albeit against weaker opposition. The Bluebirds have a favorable schedule remaining against Newcastle and Chelsea (both of whom should have very little to play for), but Sunderland has a game in hand.
This is the traditional relegation 6-pointer. It's simply a must-win for both clubs. The loser would almost surely be doomed to spend next year in the Championship, and 3 points will be much more valuable to both sides than 1. This is the must-watch match of the weekend. It promises to be one of the more entertaining matches all season, as both clubs will do everything to win.
I expect Sunderland to do just that, despite their awful home record. Cardiff has only won two away matches all season. Its hard to see them winning in the Stadium of Light with so much on the line. Sunderland takes serious momentum into this weekend after taking points from two opponents in the title race. They may just believe Premier League destiny is on their side.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Arsenal's Potential Summer Transfer Targets
This week, basically everyone with a computer has used it to speculate on Arsenal's summer transfer targets. Since I have a computer myself, I thought I'd add to the discussion.
In my opinion, it's likely that we'll need to spend the fabled "warchest" on at least 6 players.
1. A new #2 GK to replace Fabianski and provide competition to Szczesny.
2. A new CB to replace Vermaelen--who is almost certain to leave
3. Another CB for additional cover, because we've been lucky to get away with just 3 this season.
4. A new holding midfielder to compete with, and eventually replace Arteta.
5. A versatile winger with speed to not be so reliant on Walcott.
6. A fast striker to provide something different to Giroud.
Notably, I do not think we need a replacement for Sagna if we lose him. I believe in Jenkinson. I think his athleticism is truly unique. Yes he is a raw player who is prone to making mistakes, but his technique will only become more refined with more playing time. The guy can literally run all day, he has incredible Ramsey-esque fitness and stamina. I can't think of a better quality for a fullback, especially in Arsenal's system, where fullbacks are expected to contribute to the attack as much as defense.
And I expect Hector Bellerin to be promoted to the senior team as the #2 option. Bellerin has been a bright spot in the youth teams for years since signing from La Masia with Jon Toral in 2011. He is our highest-rated young player, and it's a shame Watford changed managers early in his loan this fall. Gianfranco Zola planned to give the young Spaniard much more playing time than Giuseppe Sannino did. I think the boy is ready to make the step up.
Therefore I don't necessarily think we need to make a move for Callum Chambers or Serge Aurier--despite both being heavily linked.
Here's a look at some potential targets at the positions where I do believe we need to strengthen:
Goalkeeper
Keylor Navas - Levante. The 27 year old Costa Rican shot-stopper has reportedly refused to sign a new contract. His Levante side sit in 11th in La Liga despite scoring just 30 goals in 34 matches, only 3 more than Elche--the lowest-scoring team in the Spanish League. According to WhoScored.com, Navas has been Levante's undisputed best player this season, with a match rating of 7.21 in 33 appearances and an impressive list of strengths compared to very few weaknesses. And faced with the prospect of losing him for free next season, cash-strapped Levante may be forced to sell. They will almost certainly rather sell to a club abroad than to a Spanish rival, and therefore I believe Navas would be a great, affordable addition who could provide genuine competition to Szczesny at goalkeeper.
Center Back
Matthias Ginter - Freiburg. Freiburg's Sporting Director Jochen Saier dismissed earlier reports that Dortmund had agreed to buy the 20 year old German player this summer. Saier admitted that advanced discussions had taken place with Dortmund, but explicitly said they have not received an offer. Therefore, I am interpreting Saier's statement as inviting other offers from other teams. Like Levante and Navas, Freiburg almost surely would rather sell Ginter to a foreign club than to a domestic rival. And the German contingent already in place at Arsenal makes us a great potential destination for the youngster. Ginter would be my first choice. He is a young player tipped for great things and he is versatile enough to play in central midfield when called upon.
Andrea Ranocchia - Inter Milan. Nemanja Vidic's imminent move to Milan may force 26 year old Ranocchia out. Ranocchia has been inconsistent in his time for Inter, but he has been strong this season in limited action according to WhoScored.com, with a 7.26 match rating in 20 appearances. Ranocchia would be the understudy to Mertesacker, as they are similar players whose height allows them to excel in the air. This might make it tough to convince Ranocchia to join, as Arsenal cannot guarantee immediate playing time.
That will be the most difficult part when signing the necessary cover at this position. A young player like Ginter may be inclined to sign on and wait a year or two for his opportunity, but Ranocchia is entering his prime, he will be less patient. Therefore I would classify Ranocchia as an extremely optimistic signing. More likely would be someone in the Squillaci mold, someone who is facing very little playing time anyway and would be happy to just be part of the team.
A Squillaci-esque suggestion? A return for Phillipe Senderos. The former Arsenal and current on-loan Valencia player's contract with Fulham expires this summer. He would be classified as a home-grown player for European registration purposes, which is a positive for a guy who would basically only need to be emergency cover as the 4th choice central defender. And the imminent departure of Nicklas Bendtner creates a need for another home-grown player. While the end of Senderos's Arsenal career (and his progression since) has been distinctly average, he did enjoy a few very good years quite early in his career with us. Perhaps a return could spur on a Flamini-esque renaissance.
Holding Midfielder
Lars Bender - Leverkusen. Bender was strongly linked last season after Leverkusen reportedly rejected a 19 million pound bid. Leverkusen changed their manager this spring, and Sacha Lewandowski may now agree to cash in on Bender in order to fund the acquisitions of his preferred targets.
Bender is a versatile player who can double as a fullback--which could be very important if we do lose Sagna this summer. According to some observers, Bender has had a difficult season this year as the speculation about his future has weighed heavily. However it should be noted that Bender was playing with a calf injury during much of the above article's damning 7 game winless streak.
Bender's stats on WhoScored.com seem strong. His tackling ability (nearly 4 tackles per game) is something that could be a very useful addition to the current Arsenal midfield, although questions would remain regarding Bender's distribution and his ability to read the game. He averages just 1.5 interceptions per game (compared to Arteta's 2 per game) and completed less than 40 passes per game this season (compared to Arteta's 65.7). I am of the opinion that these stats are more of a reflection of his role in Leverkusen's current setup rather than an indication of his quality as a player, however. I think Bender could add a lot to the current Arsenal team if we bought him
Winger
While I don't want to "kill Gnabry," I do think the squad could use another fast winger. The injury to Walcott has revealed a frightening lack of quick players at the club. A few have suggested that Alexis Sanchez would be available from Barcelona. While I think Sanchez is a very good player, my preference would be a slightly younger and cheaper option.
Xherdan Shaqiri - Bayern. The 22-year old Swiss attacker made a name for himself after several impressive performances in FC Basel's success at the expense of Manchester United in the 2011 Champions League. He moved to Bayern that summer, but the form of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, combined with the acquisition of Mario Gotze, have marginalized his importance to the Bavarian giants. Shaqiri has scored 4 goals in 4 starts since Bayern clinched the Bundesliga and began rotating their squad this spring.
Shaqiri reportedly turned down an offer from Juventus but may be willing to come to London if he can be assured a starting position. I believe Shaqiri could become a fixture on the Arsenal wing for the years to come. His pace would force opposing fullbacks to be more conscientious with their forays foward. And his technical ability would fit in seamlessly into Wenger's desired style of play. We'll have to move quickly, as Liverpool are reportedly interested as well.
Other options could be Bernard, who is reportedly unsettled by the political unrest in Ukraine after just one season at Shakhtar; Adam Lallana, who has been magnificent this season for Southampton; or Julian Draxler, who we were very strongly linked to in January.
Striker
The most obvious position of need is one that has caused the most debate among supporters. Mario Mandzukic is too similar to Giroud for my liking. Diego Costa has a release clause that is almost certain to be triggered by Chelsea this summer, and we would not be able to compete with the Blues for wages. Besides, our multiple needs at multiple positions might require us to not put so many of our eggs in the striker basket.
If Manchester United agrees to sell to an English rival, 7amkickoff makes a strong argument in favor of signing Chicharito Hernandez. Hernandez is an extremely efficient goalscoring poacher whose goals/minute rate is right up there with the best forwards in world football. He is certainly worth a close look if United do decide to sell him, but I could just as easily see United refusing to sell to an EPL competitor. He could very likely become the replacement for Diego Costa at Atletico Madrid.
No need to worry, however, because I believe this position has already been addressed.
Josip Drmic - Nurnberg. A month ago, German pundit Lothar Matthaeus confidently predicted Drmic would be joining Arsenal for a reported 7 million pounds. Matthaeus was one of the first to report Robert Lewandowski's agreement to join Bayern Munich and he also correctly predicted Adrian Ramos's imminent signing for Dortmund. His record for getting these transfer stories right matches his pomposity when doing so.
Drmic is an up-and-coming 21 year old two-footed striker with pace to burn. He has scored 16 goals without much support for relegation-threatened Nurnberg this season, tied with Ramos for 3rd most in the Bundesliga. He is a very good dribbler, who can create a chance for himself as well as finish chances created by others. He is also versatile, as he can play on the wings or centrally, and could therefore realistically play in the same team as Giroud as well as being a genuine rotation option up front.
Check out this youtube highlight reel if you have never seen Drmic play. He looks like quite the diamond in the rough. A player like him would certainly cost more than 7 million if he had the exposure of the Premier League.
Drmic reportedly has a relegation release clause in his contract for a bargain 4.5 million pounds. Arsenal's reported 7 million pound bid makes a lot of sense in these circumstances. We are effectively paying 2.5 million for a first option on the player. Nurnberg will almost surely lose the player for less money if they do get relegated (and with 3 consecutive losses since the Drmic to Arsenal link went public, it looks increasingly likely that they will). Therefore Arsenal's offer provides the German club with an opportunity to accept a bid higher than his release clause before it kicks in. 7 million would constitute a great deal for both clubs involved.
And keep in mind that Wenger tends to get his business done as soon as possible in World Cup/Euro summers, to prevent the international competitions from inflating the price. Podolski and Giroud were both signed before Euro2012 was over. Nasri and Rosicky were signed before Euro2008 and World Cup 2006 began. Drmic looks set to start for the Swiss (who I think is a dark horse to do really well after dominating the qualifying stages) in the upcoming World Cup. If Matthaeus is correct that we have secured him, I applaud the club for acting so quickly and decisively. I would love to see Drmic develop into an even better player in the Arsenal shirt.
In my opinion, it's likely that we'll need to spend the fabled "warchest" on at least 6 players.
1. A new #2 GK to replace Fabianski and provide competition to Szczesny.
2. A new CB to replace Vermaelen--who is almost certain to leave
3. Another CB for additional cover, because we've been lucky to get away with just 3 this season.
4. A new holding midfielder to compete with, and eventually replace Arteta.
5. A versatile winger with speed to not be so reliant on Walcott.
6. A fast striker to provide something different to Giroud.
Notably, I do not think we need a replacement for Sagna if we lose him. I believe in Jenkinson. I think his athleticism is truly unique. Yes he is a raw player who is prone to making mistakes, but his technique will only become more refined with more playing time. The guy can literally run all day, he has incredible Ramsey-esque fitness and stamina. I can't think of a better quality for a fullback, especially in Arsenal's system, where fullbacks are expected to contribute to the attack as much as defense.
And I expect Hector Bellerin to be promoted to the senior team as the #2 option. Bellerin has been a bright spot in the youth teams for years since signing from La Masia with Jon Toral in 2011. He is our highest-rated young player, and it's a shame Watford changed managers early in his loan this fall. Gianfranco Zola planned to give the young Spaniard much more playing time than Giuseppe Sannino did. I think the boy is ready to make the step up.
Therefore I don't necessarily think we need to make a move for Callum Chambers or Serge Aurier--despite both being heavily linked.
Here's a look at some potential targets at the positions where I do believe we need to strengthen:
Goalkeeper
Keylor Navas - Levante. The 27 year old Costa Rican shot-stopper has reportedly refused to sign a new contract. His Levante side sit in 11th in La Liga despite scoring just 30 goals in 34 matches, only 3 more than Elche--the lowest-scoring team in the Spanish League. According to WhoScored.com, Navas has been Levante's undisputed best player this season, with a match rating of 7.21 in 33 appearances and an impressive list of strengths compared to very few weaknesses. And faced with the prospect of losing him for free next season, cash-strapped Levante may be forced to sell. They will almost certainly rather sell to a club abroad than to a Spanish rival, and therefore I believe Navas would be a great, affordable addition who could provide genuine competition to Szczesny at goalkeeper.
Center Back
Matthias Ginter - Freiburg. Freiburg's Sporting Director Jochen Saier dismissed earlier reports that Dortmund had agreed to buy the 20 year old German player this summer. Saier admitted that advanced discussions had taken place with Dortmund, but explicitly said they have not received an offer. Therefore, I am interpreting Saier's statement as inviting other offers from other teams. Like Levante and Navas, Freiburg almost surely would rather sell Ginter to a foreign club than to a domestic rival. And the German contingent already in place at Arsenal makes us a great potential destination for the youngster. Ginter would be my first choice. He is a young player tipped for great things and he is versatile enough to play in central midfield when called upon.
Andrea Ranocchia - Inter Milan. Nemanja Vidic's imminent move to Milan may force 26 year old Ranocchia out. Ranocchia has been inconsistent in his time for Inter, but he has been strong this season in limited action according to WhoScored.com, with a 7.26 match rating in 20 appearances. Ranocchia would be the understudy to Mertesacker, as they are similar players whose height allows them to excel in the air. This might make it tough to convince Ranocchia to join, as Arsenal cannot guarantee immediate playing time.
That will be the most difficult part when signing the necessary cover at this position. A young player like Ginter may be inclined to sign on and wait a year or two for his opportunity, but Ranocchia is entering his prime, he will be less patient. Therefore I would classify Ranocchia as an extremely optimistic signing. More likely would be someone in the Squillaci mold, someone who is facing very little playing time anyway and would be happy to just be part of the team.
A Squillaci-esque suggestion? A return for Phillipe Senderos. The former Arsenal and current on-loan Valencia player's contract with Fulham expires this summer. He would be classified as a home-grown player for European registration purposes, which is a positive for a guy who would basically only need to be emergency cover as the 4th choice central defender. And the imminent departure of Nicklas Bendtner creates a need for another home-grown player. While the end of Senderos's Arsenal career (and his progression since) has been distinctly average, he did enjoy a few very good years quite early in his career with us. Perhaps a return could spur on a Flamini-esque renaissance.
Holding Midfielder
Lars Bender - Leverkusen. Bender was strongly linked last season after Leverkusen reportedly rejected a 19 million pound bid. Leverkusen changed their manager this spring, and Sacha Lewandowski may now agree to cash in on Bender in order to fund the acquisitions of his preferred targets.
Bender is a versatile player who can double as a fullback--which could be very important if we do lose Sagna this summer. According to some observers, Bender has had a difficult season this year as the speculation about his future has weighed heavily. However it should be noted that Bender was playing with a calf injury during much of the above article's damning 7 game winless streak.
Bender's stats on WhoScored.com seem strong. His tackling ability (nearly 4 tackles per game) is something that could be a very useful addition to the current Arsenal midfield, although questions would remain regarding Bender's distribution and his ability to read the game. He averages just 1.5 interceptions per game (compared to Arteta's 2 per game) and completed less than 40 passes per game this season (compared to Arteta's 65.7). I am of the opinion that these stats are more of a reflection of his role in Leverkusen's current setup rather than an indication of his quality as a player, however. I think Bender could add a lot to the current Arsenal team if we bought him
Winger
While I don't want to "kill Gnabry," I do think the squad could use another fast winger. The injury to Walcott has revealed a frightening lack of quick players at the club. A few have suggested that Alexis Sanchez would be available from Barcelona. While I think Sanchez is a very good player, my preference would be a slightly younger and cheaper option.
Xherdan Shaqiri - Bayern. The 22-year old Swiss attacker made a name for himself after several impressive performances in FC Basel's success at the expense of Manchester United in the 2011 Champions League. He moved to Bayern that summer, but the form of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, combined with the acquisition of Mario Gotze, have marginalized his importance to the Bavarian giants. Shaqiri has scored 4 goals in 4 starts since Bayern clinched the Bundesliga and began rotating their squad this spring.
Shaqiri reportedly turned down an offer from Juventus but may be willing to come to London if he can be assured a starting position. I believe Shaqiri could become a fixture on the Arsenal wing for the years to come. His pace would force opposing fullbacks to be more conscientious with their forays foward. And his technical ability would fit in seamlessly into Wenger's desired style of play. We'll have to move quickly, as Liverpool are reportedly interested as well.
Other options could be Bernard, who is reportedly unsettled by the political unrest in Ukraine after just one season at Shakhtar; Adam Lallana, who has been magnificent this season for Southampton; or Julian Draxler, who we were very strongly linked to in January.
Striker
The most obvious position of need is one that has caused the most debate among supporters. Mario Mandzukic is too similar to Giroud for my liking. Diego Costa has a release clause that is almost certain to be triggered by Chelsea this summer, and we would not be able to compete with the Blues for wages. Besides, our multiple needs at multiple positions might require us to not put so many of our eggs in the striker basket.
If Manchester United agrees to sell to an English rival, 7amkickoff makes a strong argument in favor of signing Chicharito Hernandez. Hernandez is an extremely efficient goalscoring poacher whose goals/minute rate is right up there with the best forwards in world football. He is certainly worth a close look if United do decide to sell him, but I could just as easily see United refusing to sell to an EPL competitor. He could very likely become the replacement for Diego Costa at Atletico Madrid.
No need to worry, however, because I believe this position has already been addressed.
Josip Drmic - Nurnberg. A month ago, German pundit Lothar Matthaeus confidently predicted Drmic would be joining Arsenal for a reported 7 million pounds. Matthaeus was one of the first to report Robert Lewandowski's agreement to join Bayern Munich and he also correctly predicted Adrian Ramos's imminent signing for Dortmund. His record for getting these transfer stories right matches his pomposity when doing so.
Drmic is an up-and-coming 21 year old two-footed striker with pace to burn. He has scored 16 goals without much support for relegation-threatened Nurnberg this season, tied with Ramos for 3rd most in the Bundesliga. He is a very good dribbler, who can create a chance for himself as well as finish chances created by others. He is also versatile, as he can play on the wings or centrally, and could therefore realistically play in the same team as Giroud as well as being a genuine rotation option up front.
Check out this youtube highlight reel if you have never seen Drmic play. He looks like quite the diamond in the rough. A player like him would certainly cost more than 7 million if he had the exposure of the Premier League.
Drmic reportedly has a relegation release clause in his contract for a bargain 4.5 million pounds. Arsenal's reported 7 million pound bid makes a lot of sense in these circumstances. We are effectively paying 2.5 million for a first option on the player. Nurnberg will almost surely lose the player for less money if they do get relegated (and with 3 consecutive losses since the Drmic to Arsenal link went public, it looks increasingly likely that they will). Therefore Arsenal's offer provides the German club with an opportunity to accept a bid higher than his release clause before it kicks in. 7 million would constitute a great deal for both clubs involved.
And keep in mind that Wenger tends to get his business done as soon as possible in World Cup/Euro summers, to prevent the international competitions from inflating the price. Podolski and Giroud were both signed before Euro2012 was over. Nasri and Rosicky were signed before Euro2008 and World Cup 2006 began. Drmic looks set to start for the Swiss (who I think is a dark horse to do really well after dominating the qualifying stages) in the upcoming World Cup. If Matthaeus is correct that we have secured him, I applaud the club for acting so quickly and decisively. I would love to see Drmic develop into an even better player in the Arsenal shirt.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
What's Next for Manchester United?
Manchester United officially sacked David Moyes today. Having already gone into length in my defense of Moyes earlier this month, I won't get into that again now. Instead I'll be looking forward to see what might be next for (what used to be) England's biggest club.
Ryan Giggs will be the interim manager for the rest of the season. Perhaps Giggs can win the big job for himself by guiding United past Tottenham and into the Europa League. But I think this is unlikely. Moyes's replacement will most likely be a foreign manager who has won things.
Jurgen Klopp rumors have been dismissed by Borussia Dormund. Klopp is under contract until 2018 and he reportedly intends to honor that contract.
Diego Simeone is a young, up-and-coming manager who has built a powerhouse team at Atletico. His side have withstood the sales of many key players and keep improving year-to-year. But Simeone has a bit of a checkered history with United, after being roundly vilified in the UK for "getting Beckham sent off" in France '98. I could see United's entitled supporters (literally) turning on him very quickly if things don't go their way immediately.
For this reason, I think the two most likely candidates to replace Moyes are a Frenchman and a Dutchman.
Laurent Blanc has managed PSG to consecutive Ligue 1 titles (in all likelihood). He also won the French cup this year and was very unlucky not to be playing in the semifinals of the Champions League tonight after losing to Chelsea. He has experience managing big egos with massive salaries, and he's a former United defender. Blanc seems to be a very logical choice because he is yet to sign a new contract for the Parisian giants and would be available for a return to Manchester if United were interested.
However, Louis Van Gaal is the overwhelming favorite to take the job with the bookies. Van Gaal will be free after coaching the Netherlands at the World Cup this summer. He has built very young, successful teams at Ajax, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich. And his close relationship with Robin van Persie is well-known. Van Gaal's track record with youth could help rebuild the club from the bottom-up, and in that sense he might be exactly what United needs. But I'm not sure United fans have the patience for him. They clearly had no patience for Moyes.
Regardless of who replaces Moyes, they will be taking over a team in decline, with major issues at every level. United has relied on their more senior players for far too long, and they did very little to bring in and keep quality young players as Sir Alex Ferguson sought to end his managerial career on a high note.
Other than van Persie and the recent acquisition of Juan Mata, Man United has failed to bring in good players for the last 5 years. They failed to adequately reinvest the 80 million the club made on the Ronaldo sale in 2009. It's finally catching up to them.
They bought Ashley Young, Chris Smalling, Chicharito Hernandez, David De Gea, Phil Jones, Alexander Buttner, Shinji Kagawa, Wilfried Zaha and Nick Powell, all of whom were 24 or younger when they joined the club. None have developed into world class players. None were great purchases.
Meanwhile Paul Pogba wasted away in United's academy, and refused to sign a new contract at Old Trafford when he turned 21. Pogba is now much better than any of the 9 players I mentioned above.
Ferguson did win the league twice in 3 years (2010/11 and 2012/13), but make no mistake, United's long-term strength was sacrificed in order to pay for short-term success.
The defense and midfield aged and now lack the athleticism to compete at the top level. Very few of United's defenders and midfielders would start for any of United's rivals in the top 4. The young players Fergie bought to replace his senior stars haven't been up to standard.
And while there is quality in United's attack, there is a major problem with the team's chemistry in this area. The Rooney/van Persie situation has snowballed into a very serious financial and footballistic issue for the club.
As I pointed out yesterday, Rooney's contract is toxic. 300k per week drains the club's resources, which is a major concern as Financial Fair Play begins. In addition, it will make Rooney very difficult to sell on the transfer market. Few clubs can afford to match that weekly wage. The ones that can already possess the world's best strikers. And there are better players out there (Diego Costa, Luis Suarez, etc.) who do a lot more on the pitch for much less money.
Rooney and van Persie cannot play together. Sir Alex Ferguson understood this in his final season. He benched Rooney to play van Persie, and van Persie rewarded him with incredibly clinical finishing.
Check out this article, written before the season, by statsbomb.com. It showed that United had the best goal difference in the league while having just the 8th best shot difference in 2012/13.
Most EPL statistical analysis is simple. The more times you shoot, the more likely you are to score. And along those lines, the less shots you allow, the less likely you are to concede goals.
Fergie's final season defied this simple logic. The best goal difference on the 8th best shot difference implies that United was hyper-efficient when finishing chances. A lot of that had to do with van Persie.
Van Persie scored 30 goals for United last season on just 168 total shots. That's a goal/shot ratio of 17.8%.
Compare that with Rooney this season. Rooney has scored 17 goals in all competitions and has taken 128 shots. His ratio is just 13.3%.
To me, the answer is simple. Van Persie is a better player than Rooney. Attempts to play the two together have failed, and therefore the best course of action for United is to bench Rooney as Fergie did two years ago.
Which brings us full circle to the main problem--Rooney's contract. No club can afford to pay 300k per week to a player sitting on the bench, especially as FFP is being implemented.
Only one thing's certain. Whoever takes the Old Trafford job this summer will have a very difficult time appeasing supporters with utterly ridiculous expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if a big name pulls a "Guardiola" and turns them down again.
Ryan Giggs will be the interim manager for the rest of the season. Perhaps Giggs can win the big job for himself by guiding United past Tottenham and into the Europa League. But I think this is unlikely. Moyes's replacement will most likely be a foreign manager who has won things.
Jurgen Klopp rumors have been dismissed by Borussia Dormund. Klopp is under contract until 2018 and he reportedly intends to honor that contract.
Diego Simeone is a young, up-and-coming manager who has built a powerhouse team at Atletico. His side have withstood the sales of many key players and keep improving year-to-year. But Simeone has a bit of a checkered history with United, after being roundly vilified in the UK for "getting Beckham sent off" in France '98. I could see United's entitled supporters (literally) turning on him very quickly if things don't go their way immediately.
For this reason, I think the two most likely candidates to replace Moyes are a Frenchman and a Dutchman.
Laurent Blanc has managed PSG to consecutive Ligue 1 titles (in all likelihood). He also won the French cup this year and was very unlucky not to be playing in the semifinals of the Champions League tonight after losing to Chelsea. He has experience managing big egos with massive salaries, and he's a former United defender. Blanc seems to be a very logical choice because he is yet to sign a new contract for the Parisian giants and would be available for a return to Manchester if United were interested.
However, Louis Van Gaal is the overwhelming favorite to take the job with the bookies. Van Gaal will be free after coaching the Netherlands at the World Cup this summer. He has built very young, successful teams at Ajax, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich. And his close relationship with Robin van Persie is well-known. Van Gaal's track record with youth could help rebuild the club from the bottom-up, and in that sense he might be exactly what United needs. But I'm not sure United fans have the patience for him. They clearly had no patience for Moyes.
Regardless of who replaces Moyes, they will be taking over a team in decline, with major issues at every level. United has relied on their more senior players for far too long, and they did very little to bring in and keep quality young players as Sir Alex Ferguson sought to end his managerial career on a high note.
Other than van Persie and the recent acquisition of Juan Mata, Man United has failed to bring in good players for the last 5 years. They failed to adequately reinvest the 80 million the club made on the Ronaldo sale in 2009. It's finally catching up to them.
They bought Ashley Young, Chris Smalling, Chicharito Hernandez, David De Gea, Phil Jones, Alexander Buttner, Shinji Kagawa, Wilfried Zaha and Nick Powell, all of whom were 24 or younger when they joined the club. None have developed into world class players. None were great purchases.
Meanwhile Paul Pogba wasted away in United's academy, and refused to sign a new contract at Old Trafford when he turned 21. Pogba is now much better than any of the 9 players I mentioned above.
Ferguson did win the league twice in 3 years (2010/11 and 2012/13), but make no mistake, United's long-term strength was sacrificed in order to pay for short-term success.
The defense and midfield aged and now lack the athleticism to compete at the top level. Very few of United's defenders and midfielders would start for any of United's rivals in the top 4. The young players Fergie bought to replace his senior stars haven't been up to standard.
And while there is quality in United's attack, there is a major problem with the team's chemistry in this area. The Rooney/van Persie situation has snowballed into a very serious financial and footballistic issue for the club.
As I pointed out yesterday, Rooney's contract is toxic. 300k per week drains the club's resources, which is a major concern as Financial Fair Play begins. In addition, it will make Rooney very difficult to sell on the transfer market. Few clubs can afford to match that weekly wage. The ones that can already possess the world's best strikers. And there are better players out there (Diego Costa, Luis Suarez, etc.) who do a lot more on the pitch for much less money.
Rooney and van Persie cannot play together. Sir Alex Ferguson understood this in his final season. He benched Rooney to play van Persie, and van Persie rewarded him with incredibly clinical finishing.
Check out this article, written before the season, by statsbomb.com. It showed that United had the best goal difference in the league while having just the 8th best shot difference in 2012/13.
Most EPL statistical analysis is simple. The more times you shoot, the more likely you are to score. And along those lines, the less shots you allow, the less likely you are to concede goals.
Fergie's final season defied this simple logic. The best goal difference on the 8th best shot difference implies that United was hyper-efficient when finishing chances. A lot of that had to do with van Persie.
Van Persie scored 30 goals for United last season on just 168 total shots. That's a goal/shot ratio of 17.8%.
Compare that with Rooney this season. Rooney has scored 17 goals in all competitions and has taken 128 shots. His ratio is just 13.3%.
To me, the answer is simple. Van Persie is a better player than Rooney. Attempts to play the two together have failed, and therefore the best course of action for United is to bench Rooney as Fergie did two years ago.
Which brings us full circle to the main problem--Rooney's contract. No club can afford to pay 300k per week to a player sitting on the bench, especially as FFP is being implemented.
Only one thing's certain. Whoever takes the Old Trafford job this summer will have a very difficult time appeasing supporters with utterly ridiculous expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if a big name pulls a "Guardiola" and turns them down again.
Monday, April 21, 2014
EPL Review: April 19-20
Fulham finally lost, Norwich still can't win, and Cardiff secured a point to move them ahead of the Cottagers on goal difference. Cardiff now sits in 18th, just 2 points behind Norwich. The relegation race will be decided in the next three weeks.
But the best action of the weekend took place at the top of the table.
Chelsea 1 - Sunderland 2
Sunderland took momentum from their mid-week draw against Manchester City to become the first EPL team to beat Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea was distracted by their upcoming midweek Champions League and next weekend's trip to Anfield, but for the Blues to lose to the bottom team in the league at home in the final run-in almost surely dooms what title hopes they had. Liverpool are now extremely strong favorites to win the league.
The victory came from a late penalty, won by Jozy Altidore. I say Altidore won the penalty because Cesar Azpilacueta did not concede it. Altidore's left leg stretched well outside his body, to an unnatural position, but into Azpilacueta's slide. Altidore went to the ground, and the referee pointed to the spot. But it was Altidore who initiated the contact, and the Blues were perhaps unlucky to lose in that manner. Not that I care how they lose.
Make no mistake, the Blues' lack of offensive firepower cost them more than dodgy refereeing on Saturday. Sunderland's defense was opened up by Tottenham just two weeks ago for five goals. Harry Kane was even scoring goals. To only score one goal at home against the worst team in the league is downright pitiful.
Mourinho has bemoaned his lack of striking options all year, but perhaps he should look to his midfield as well. Eden Hazard has been out for two weeks with an injury, and in that time Chelsea have crashed out of the title race. The Blues have lacked creative playmaking without their injured star.
Hull 0 - Arsenal 3
Hull was fairly good early but faded quickly as Arsenal exposed their 4-4-2 on the counter attack for two first half goals.
Wojciech Szczesny made a series of great early plays, smothering numerous crosses and making a few saves to keep a clean sheet. It was a much better performance for the young polekeeper after he struggled against West Ham in midweek.
Hull was extremely physical early. Mikel Arteta lost his front tooth to a Shane Long elbow. David Meyler upended Nacho Monreal with a very aggressive tackle. But Arsenal responded to the physical play with absolute quality on the counter attack.
Mesut Ozil returned from injury and was fantastic yesterday. His vision and composure made all the difference. He constantly kept Arsenal's spacing by taking the right positions and found the right player when he had the ball. Even though he did not finish the match with any goals or assists, both of Arsenal's crucial first half goals were sparked by Ozil passes.
Aaron Ramsey was everywhere. His runs forward to support the attack were outstanding. He scored the first goal after an Ozil pass found Santi Cazorla and Cazorla one-timed a pass into Ramsey's feet. Ramsey coolly finished at the far post.
For the second, Ramsey turned provider. An Ozil through ball found Olivier Giroud on the right wing. Giroud's cross to Ramsey was chested down right into the path of Lukas Podolski who finished with a well-placed volley. Then in the second half, a Cazorla cut-back found Ramsey yet again. Ramsey's shot was saved, but Podolski scored on the rebound.
Podolski has now scored 4 goals in 2 matches since his frustration at his substitution at Wembley a week ago. But the real story yesterday was Ramsey. Ramsey is the most dynamic midfielder in the Premier League, and his injury derailed what could have been a truly historic season. As I've said before, Ramsey might be the most dynamic British midfielder in EPL history.
Hull cannot play their two strikers, Long and Jelavic, in the FA Cup final next month, so they will likely sit back and play more conservatively after paying the price for pushing too far forward yesterday. In that sense, I don't believe this match was any indication of how easy Arsenal will have it in the Final next month. But the Gunners will crucially take confidence into that match, as well as in the EPL run-in. Much needed confidence too, as Everton is nipping at their heels.
Everton 2 - Man United 0
David Moyes's return to Goodison was met by a Grim Reaper in the stands, foreshadowing the many reports that Moyes has been sacked this morning.
I've went into detail as to why I don't think Moyes is to blame for United's problems once already this year. I have to say I'm surprised this has happened. And I think United may be worse off with a new manager. The team he inherited simply isn't good enough to win anything.
United were beaten soundly by Everton, despite dominating possession. Everton's direct play exposed United's weak, slow central midfield and put United's defense under constant pressure. The flanks were taken apart as well. And United had no cutting edge in the final third.
I've went into detail as to why I don't think Moyes is to blame for United's problems once already this year. I have to say I'm surprised this has happened. And I think United may be worse off with a new manager. The team he inherited simply isn't good enough to win anything.
United were beaten soundly by Everton, despite dominating possession. Everton's direct play exposed United's weak, slow central midfield and put United's defense under constant pressure. The flanks were taken apart as well. And United had no cutting edge in the final third.
Jonny Evans and Phil Jones struggled all day. The Toffees played long balls into Romelu Lukaku, and Lukaku's flick-ons to Naismith were easy as neither Darren Fletcher nor Michael Carrick tracked back well at all.
United had all the possession but was toothless in attack. For Arsenal, when this happens the blame lands completely on Giroud. England fans won't want to hear this, especially ahead of the World Cup, but Wayne Rooney simply isn't good enough. The lion's share of blame for United's struggles should land squarely on the England "superstar."
Rooney has 15 EPL goals this year. Giroud has 14. The comparison is more valid than England and United fans would like to admit. It's much more convenient to blame Moyes, but Rooney earns 300,000 pounds a year. He's playing like a striker who doesn't make 100,000. And nowhere near Luis Suarez, who makes 200,000 after his new contract this fall.
Compare Suarez to Rooney. Both wanted to leave their club this summer. Both were coaxed into staying by being given new contracts. Suarez's pay increased from 150k to 200k, and he will likely break the EPL single-season goalscoring record this year despite missing the first 7 games through suspension. Rooney upped his pay from 200k to 300k, and Rooney has repaid his club with a series of Giroudian performances.
This isn't to say Giroud is a bad player, but considering Rooney's salary, its fair to expect much more from him. 3 times more.
Rooney's track record suggests such expectations are far-fetched, however. Average seasons like this one are far more common than great ones. Only twice has 28-year-old Rooney eclipsed the 20-goal mark in the league. Last season he scored 12 league goals. In 2010/11 he scored just 11. He scored only 12 in 07/08 and 08/09. He simply didn't deserve the contract when he got it, and still does not deserve it now.
United now are mathematically eliminated from the Champions League and have real work to do to catch Tottenham for the last spot in the Europa League.
Keep blaming Moyes all you like for their fall from grace this season, but the highest-paid player in the EPL has been distinctly average all year. 20 million per goal is simply nowhere near good enough.
Changing the manager won't get rid of Rooney's toxic contract.
And with the possibility of no European football staring United in the face right now, the Rooney issue could become a serious drain on the club's resources in the coming years.
Keep blaming Moyes all you like for their fall from grace this season, but the highest-paid player in the EPL has been distinctly average all year. 20 million per goal is simply nowhere near good enough.
Changing the manager won't get rid of Rooney's toxic contract.
And with the possibility of no European football staring United in the face right now, the Rooney issue could become a serious drain on the club's resources in the coming years.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Arsenal Steps Up to Beat West Ham
After a dismal display in the first half, Arsenal responded to beat West Ham United and took 4th place back, for a day at least!
Arsenal was lucky not to be 2 goals behind after 40 minutes. Matt Jarvis jumped over a sloppy Sagna challenge and the referee failed to award a penalty. Olivier Giroud whiffed at a great chance from a cross and feebly tried and failed to chip the goalkeeper when through one-on-one.
Jarvis scored the scrappy opening goal. It was the type of goal Arsenal always seems to concede. Antonio Nocerino made a run from midfield and shot on goal, and Wojciech Szczesny could only parry the ball into the middle of the box, and Jarvis headed the rebound in.
Make no mistake, no player should take a larger share of the blame for the goal than Szczesny himself.
The boy is not improving. Everton constantly exploited the space in between our center backs and full-backs two weeks ago, and West Ham did so as well for their opening goal. Szczesny needs to be the general shouting orders at his defense. He has the vantage point to communicate with the defense and get their positioning right. He is consistently failing in that role.
The positioning was horrible again last night. Koscielny was in the middle of the box and Vermaelen had followed his mark all the way to the touchline. Nocerino's run wasn't tracked well by Kallstrom, either, but Koscielny needed to be in a better position to tighten the gap between the two.
Furthermore, Szczesny's tendency to give up a rebound in a very dangerous position hurt Arsenal yet again. Nocerino's shot came from an impossible angle near the endline. Szczesny was standing on his near post and covering the entire goal. It was impossible for Nocerino to score. But Szczesny's parry put the ball in a more dangerous area than from where the Italian's shot came.
Szczesny needs to do better from that position. A top goalkeeper for a top club either puts that ball out for a corner or smothers it and gives his team possession.
I frankly feared the worst after the opener. Luckily Szczesny was not tested again. West Ham had just two shots on target all match, Nocerino's shot from the endline and Jarvis's headed goal on the rebound. The younger of Arsenal's two polekeepers failed his only test.
Thank God every other Arsenal player passed their tests in flying colors.
Santi Cazorla was thoroughly excellent in midfield after playing the full 2 hours at Wembley Saturday. Mikel Arteta also did not let the fatigue get to him, and the Spaniard had one of his best games all season. Kim Kallstrom was great in his first start. His willingness to try ambitious longer passes made the Arsenal attack more diverse and unpredictable. And Stewart Downing's pinpoint pass to Cazorla set up Arsenal's equalizer.
Wait, Downing plays for West Ham? Could have fooled me last night.
Olivier Giroud scored a fantastic goal from a Kallstrom-esque long pass by Vermaelen--who did very well at left back last night (although again...Stewart Downing...). Giroud's first touch took the ball down incredibly well and his finish nutmegged the West Ham goalkeeper to take the lead.
Giroud's first touch may be as good as I've ever seen for a player his size. His importance to Arsenal's possession game is huge. He provides the focal point for the midfielders to play around, and his deft one-touch passing can turn opposing defenders inside-out. This first touch has led to fantastic assists to Rosicky and of course Wilshere in two candidates for goal of the season. Today he made another goal of the year candidate for himself from the complete opposite type of chance, a long ball. He just needs to finish more consistently to be the top class striker Arsene Wenger believes he can be.
Maybe Giroud should take lessons from his teammate, Lukas Podolski. Podolski has finishing down to a science. The German was the man of the match. After being visibly and vocally frustrated with his substitution at Wembley, Podolski scored two unstoppable shots when he received the ball in dangerous positions.
The first came five minutes after West Ham's opener. Downing's "clearance" found Cazorla just outside the box and Cazorla fed Podolski on the left side of the penalty area. The German took a touch with his right and coolly slotted the ball in the far post with his left before the defense could react and get back into a compact position.
The second put Arsenal up by 2 goals and ended the game. Aaron Ramsey's header put Podolski in a dangerous position, and the German let the ball roll onto his left foot and fired a powerful shot directly over the goalkeeper's head. The shot was so strong that the keeper had no time to react and get his hands up to stop it.
The win puts Arsenal back in 4th place, for a day at least. Everton hosts Crystal Palace at Goodison later today. But looking at the schedule ahead, no match will pose a similar challenge in the run-in. The FA Cup Final is after the season ends, so Arsenal will get plenty of time to rest in between the remaining matches.
With Flamini returning and reports that Mesut Ozil will also be available for the Hull match on Sunday, things are finally looking up for the Arsenal.
Arsenal was lucky not to be 2 goals behind after 40 minutes. Matt Jarvis jumped over a sloppy Sagna challenge and the referee failed to award a penalty. Olivier Giroud whiffed at a great chance from a cross and feebly tried and failed to chip the goalkeeper when through one-on-one.
Jarvis scored the scrappy opening goal. It was the type of goal Arsenal always seems to concede. Antonio Nocerino made a run from midfield and shot on goal, and Wojciech Szczesny could only parry the ball into the middle of the box, and Jarvis headed the rebound in.
Make no mistake, no player should take a larger share of the blame for the goal than Szczesny himself.
The boy is not improving. Everton constantly exploited the space in between our center backs and full-backs two weeks ago, and West Ham did so as well for their opening goal. Szczesny needs to be the general shouting orders at his defense. He has the vantage point to communicate with the defense and get their positioning right. He is consistently failing in that role.
The positioning was horrible again last night. Koscielny was in the middle of the box and Vermaelen had followed his mark all the way to the touchline. Nocerino's run wasn't tracked well by Kallstrom, either, but Koscielny needed to be in a better position to tighten the gap between the two.
Furthermore, Szczesny's tendency to give up a rebound in a very dangerous position hurt Arsenal yet again. Nocerino's shot came from an impossible angle near the endline. Szczesny was standing on his near post and covering the entire goal. It was impossible for Nocerino to score. But Szczesny's parry put the ball in a more dangerous area than from where the Italian's shot came.
Szczesny needs to do better from that position. A top goalkeeper for a top club either puts that ball out for a corner or smothers it and gives his team possession.
I frankly feared the worst after the opener. Luckily Szczesny was not tested again. West Ham had just two shots on target all match, Nocerino's shot from the endline and Jarvis's headed goal on the rebound. The younger of Arsenal's two polekeepers failed his only test.
Thank God every other Arsenal player passed their tests in flying colors.
Santi Cazorla was thoroughly excellent in midfield after playing the full 2 hours at Wembley Saturday. Mikel Arteta also did not let the fatigue get to him, and the Spaniard had one of his best games all season. Kim Kallstrom was great in his first start. His willingness to try ambitious longer passes made the Arsenal attack more diverse and unpredictable. And Stewart Downing's pinpoint pass to Cazorla set up Arsenal's equalizer.
Wait, Downing plays for West Ham? Could have fooled me last night.
Olivier Giroud scored a fantastic goal from a Kallstrom-esque long pass by Vermaelen--who did very well at left back last night (although again...Stewart Downing...). Giroud's first touch took the ball down incredibly well and his finish nutmegged the West Ham goalkeeper to take the lead.
Giroud's first touch may be as good as I've ever seen for a player his size. His importance to Arsenal's possession game is huge. He provides the focal point for the midfielders to play around, and his deft one-touch passing can turn opposing defenders inside-out. This first touch has led to fantastic assists to Rosicky and of course Wilshere in two candidates for goal of the season. Today he made another goal of the year candidate for himself from the complete opposite type of chance, a long ball. He just needs to finish more consistently to be the top class striker Arsene Wenger believes he can be.
Maybe Giroud should take lessons from his teammate, Lukas Podolski. Podolski has finishing down to a science. The German was the man of the match. After being visibly and vocally frustrated with his substitution at Wembley, Podolski scored two unstoppable shots when he received the ball in dangerous positions.
The first came five minutes after West Ham's opener. Downing's "clearance" found Cazorla just outside the box and Cazorla fed Podolski on the left side of the penalty area. The German took a touch with his right and coolly slotted the ball in the far post with his left before the defense could react and get back into a compact position.
The second put Arsenal up by 2 goals and ended the game. Aaron Ramsey's header put Podolski in a dangerous position, and the German let the ball roll onto his left foot and fired a powerful shot directly over the goalkeeper's head. The shot was so strong that the keeper had no time to react and get his hands up to stop it.
The win puts Arsenal back in 4th place, for a day at least. Everton hosts Crystal Palace at Goodison later today. But looking at the schedule ahead, no match will pose a similar challenge in the run-in. The FA Cup Final is after the season ends, so Arsenal will get plenty of time to rest in between the remaining matches.
With Flamini returning and reports that Mesut Ozil will also be available for the Hull match on Sunday, things are finally looking up for the Arsenal.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Arsenal v West Ham Preview
Arsenal hosts West Ham United tonight, just 3 days after playing 120 minutes at Wembley and winning the FA Cup semifinal on penalties. A victory would put Arsenal ahead of Everton before the Toffees play Crystal Palace at Goodison tomorrow.
The problem is, I have absolutely no clue who will be fit to play tonight.
The backline should be fairly easy. Wojciech Szczesny should start in goal. Per Mertesacker should keep his place despite playing 120 minutes at Wembley, because his position involves less running and he should still be fit to play. Laurent Koscielny could replace Thomas Vermaelen and return to the side alongside the German. Arsenal's defensive record when the Mertesacker and Koscielny play together at the Emirates is superb. Carl Jenkinson and Kieran Gibbs should start so Bacary Sagna and Nacho Monreal can rest.
The midfield isn't so easy. Mathieu Flamini will serve the 2nd of his 2-match suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Aaron Ramsey, who was out for nearly 4 months, played 110 minutes Saturday. Handing Ramsey another start on such short rest would seem foolish and risky. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mikel Arteta played the full 120 at Wembley. They probably shouldn't start either. Jack Wilshere is out injured as well, meaning 5 of our best central midfielders are (or should be) ruled out of the starting lineup.
It might be time for Kim Kallstrom's first start. He is certainly the most fresh of our midfielders, after playing just 10 minutes at Wembley. But who will play alongside him?
My best guess would be Isaac Hayden. Hayden has played a couple times for the first team in his Arsenal career, and has featured heavily for the Arsenal U-21s in the last two seasons. Hayden did not play in the U-21s 4-0 loss to Leicester yesterday, suggesting he will at least be in the squad tonight. Hayden is known for his versatility and defensive ability, as the tough-tackling player can double as a defender. Without other credible options available, Hayden could be in line to play tonight.
The attacking positions aren't much easier to pick. Lukas Podolski was subbed out at Wembley, and thererfore should start again. Olivier Giroud should come in for Yaya Sanogo. Santi Cazorla played all 120 minutes as well and Cazorla should also be rested. Mesut Ozil is still out injured. As Thomas Eisfeld played for the U-21s yesterday, he likely will not feature either. That leaves Tomas Rosicky, who will need to pass a late fitness test. There are simply no other options to replace Cazorla in the #10 role.
The right wing is even harder to predict. The Ox put in a full shift on the right wing at Wembley, and is unlikely to start there again tonight. Serge Gnabry is reportedly still out injured, and obviously Theo Walcott is still recovering from his torn ACL and cannot play.
That leaves very few options, but my best guess would be another youth player, Hector Bellerin. Bellerin's natural position is right full-back, but he has strong attacking qualities. Gianfranco Zola loaned Bellerin to Watford earlier this season to play as a wing-back in a different system. But Zola was sacked, and Watford's new manager wasn't as keen on the young Spaniard, so Bellerin was recalled to Arsenal. Bellerin has been on the bench for the last few matches, and it may be time for his first Premier League start.
Arsene Wenger faces the dilemma of picking a fatigued team or an inexperienced one. Personally, I hope he chooses the latter. There are 6 crucial matches remaining this season and further injury problems need to be avoided at all costs. Fatigued players are more likely to be injured.
In addition, a fatigued team could potentially be overrun by West Ham. The Hammers have not played in 9 days. In Rosicky, Giroud, and Podolski the Gunners should still have enough firepower to score goals. And if Koscielny returns to the back line, Arsenal should be more solid defensively. A team with Hayden in midfield and Bellerin on the right wing should still be enough to win this game tonight.
Regardless of the team selection, the players will need to take momentum from the positive result at Wembley and win tonight or else risk falling further behind Everton in the race for 4th place. Full review to come on the blog tomorrow.
The problem is, I have absolutely no clue who will be fit to play tonight.
The backline should be fairly easy. Wojciech Szczesny should start in goal. Per Mertesacker should keep his place despite playing 120 minutes at Wembley, because his position involves less running and he should still be fit to play. Laurent Koscielny could replace Thomas Vermaelen and return to the side alongside the German. Arsenal's defensive record when the Mertesacker and Koscielny play together at the Emirates is superb. Carl Jenkinson and Kieran Gibbs should start so Bacary Sagna and Nacho Monreal can rest.
The midfield isn't so easy. Mathieu Flamini will serve the 2nd of his 2-match suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Aaron Ramsey, who was out for nearly 4 months, played 110 minutes Saturday. Handing Ramsey another start on such short rest would seem foolish and risky. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mikel Arteta played the full 120 at Wembley. They probably shouldn't start either. Jack Wilshere is out injured as well, meaning 5 of our best central midfielders are (or should be) ruled out of the starting lineup.
It might be time for Kim Kallstrom's first start. He is certainly the most fresh of our midfielders, after playing just 10 minutes at Wembley. But who will play alongside him?
My best guess would be Isaac Hayden. Hayden has played a couple times for the first team in his Arsenal career, and has featured heavily for the Arsenal U-21s in the last two seasons. Hayden did not play in the U-21s 4-0 loss to Leicester yesterday, suggesting he will at least be in the squad tonight. Hayden is known for his versatility and defensive ability, as the tough-tackling player can double as a defender. Without other credible options available, Hayden could be in line to play tonight.
The attacking positions aren't much easier to pick. Lukas Podolski was subbed out at Wembley, and thererfore should start again. Olivier Giroud should come in for Yaya Sanogo. Santi Cazorla played all 120 minutes as well and Cazorla should also be rested. Mesut Ozil is still out injured. As Thomas Eisfeld played for the U-21s yesterday, he likely will not feature either. That leaves Tomas Rosicky, who will need to pass a late fitness test. There are simply no other options to replace Cazorla in the #10 role.
The right wing is even harder to predict. The Ox put in a full shift on the right wing at Wembley, and is unlikely to start there again tonight. Serge Gnabry is reportedly still out injured, and obviously Theo Walcott is still recovering from his torn ACL and cannot play.
That leaves very few options, but my best guess would be another youth player, Hector Bellerin. Bellerin's natural position is right full-back, but he has strong attacking qualities. Gianfranco Zola loaned Bellerin to Watford earlier this season to play as a wing-back in a different system. But Zola was sacked, and Watford's new manager wasn't as keen on the young Spaniard, so Bellerin was recalled to Arsenal. Bellerin has been on the bench for the last few matches, and it may be time for his first Premier League start.
Arsene Wenger faces the dilemma of picking a fatigued team or an inexperienced one. Personally, I hope he chooses the latter. There are 6 crucial matches remaining this season and further injury problems need to be avoided at all costs. Fatigued players are more likely to be injured.
In addition, a fatigued team could potentially be overrun by West Ham. The Hammers have not played in 9 days. In Rosicky, Giroud, and Podolski the Gunners should still have enough firepower to score goals. And if Koscielny returns to the back line, Arsenal should be more solid defensively. A team with Hayden in midfield and Bellerin on the right wing should still be enough to win this game tonight.
Regardless of the team selection, the players will need to take momentum from the positive result at Wembley and win tonight or else risk falling further behind Everton in the race for 4th place. Full review to come on the blog tomorrow.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Weekend Review: EPL + FA Cup
Weekends like this are what English soccer is all about.
EPL
The Premier League relegation race got much tighter, while the leaders from Liverpool separated from their chasers.
Crystal Palace secured their 3rd successive victory over Aston Villa, who look in serious danger now. Fulham also kept their momentum rolling after beating Norwich. Cardiff secured an unlikely 3 points at Southampton to keep their survival hopes alive. West Brom, the masters of the Premier League draw, managed to snatch another from the jaws of victory after going 3-nil up in the first 30 minutes against Tottenham. And a Wes Brown own goal probably put the final nail in Sunderland's coffin at the bottom of the league.
Combine these results with Chelsea's 1-nil victory over Swansea today and the bottom of the table looks like this:
14. Aston Villa - 33 Played - 34 Points
15. Swansea - 34 Played - 33 Points
16. West Brom - 33 Played - 33 Points
17. Norwich - 34 Played - 32 Points
18. Fulham - 34 Played - 30 Points
19. Cardiff - 34 Played - 29 Points
20. Sunderland - 32 Played - 25 Points
Norwich's remaining matches are all against teams in the top 7. They look almost as doomed as Sunderland. But Swansea, West Brom, and Villa should all be looking over their shoulders nervously as well. As I mentioned on last week's relegation rundown, both Fulham and Cardiff have favorable schedules remaining against mid-table clubs with little to play for.
Liverpool's 3-2 home victory over Man City has put them 7 points ahead of the Citizens, meaning City could win their remaining two games in hand and still not catch the Reds.
Luis Suarez was booked in the first five minutes, and then proceeded to out-muscle two City defenders and assist Raheem Sterling's opener. Perhaps that gives Suarez too much credit, however. Sterling showed remarkable composure and trickery to catch both Vincent Kompany and Joe Hart leaning the wrong direction and take the lead. Suarez's pass put Sterling in a great position, but Sterling did remarkably well to finish the chance.
Brendan Rogers tweaked his formation and played a 4-3-1-2, giving Sterling a free role behind the two strikers. When Suarez or Sturridge dropped deeper to get the ball, Sterling made run after run in behind the defense, and the City midfield struggled to track back and mark him. It worked incredibly well in the first half. Liverpool created numerous chances and eventually doubled their lead on a corner.
City lost Yaya Toure to injury in the first half, and they were creating very little. Gael Clichy in particular had a terrible half, as he was shrugged off by Suarez in the buildup to the first goal and failed to mark Martin Skrtel on the 2nd. Edin Dzeko probably should have won a penalty after the Bosnian jumped over a Sakho tackle aimed at Dzeko's knees, but the referee called goal kick. At halftime it looked like there could only be one winner. That feeling faded quickly.
James Milner subbed in for Jesus Navas, who struggled to deal with the physicality of the occasion in the first half. Milner made an instant impact, constantly combining with the consistently excellent David Silva to run circles around young John Flanagan and they put the Liverpool defense under constant pressure. Silva scored the first City goal and created the second in a five minute stretch. All of a sudden, it was game on with 30 minutes remaining.
The match got very testy. Suarez was lucky not to be sent off with a second yellow as he flailed to the ground and the referee refused to call a foul. He quite clearly dived, and was lucky to stay on the pitch. Flanagan also got away with some rough challenges in the Liverpool penalty area. Daniel Sturridge was injured and Joe Allen subbed in, hurting Liverpool's attack. City looked the more likely team to win all of a sudden. They brought on Sergio Aguero to finish the job.
And all of a sudden Liverpool took the lead again.
A Liverpool long throw was hurled into the City box and flicked toward Vincent Kompany. Kompany's clearance was terrible, slicing off his foot. Coutinho calmly finished and the Reds secured 3 points.
The referee did quite rightly send off Jordan Henderson for a studs-up challenge late in stoppage time. But then he missed a clear Skrtel handball on City's last possession. It seemed as if the Anfield crowd got the best of the referee today. Liverpool got a majority of the decisions their way.
But give Liverpool some credit, too. Liverpool's dominance in the 1st half should have led to more than just 2 goals. The Reds' ridiculous form continues; they've now taken 34 points from their last 12 matches. Title-winning form in the business end of the season.
City was by far the better team in the 2nd half, and now will have to hope that Liverpool drops points to keep their title dreams alive. That could be much more likely now that Henderson faces a 3-match ban, and will miss the Chelsea match as a result.
Plenty of drama remains at both the top and bottom of the league in the final month.
FA CUP
Lower-league clubs took the lead at Wembley in both semi-finals, only for their Premier League opponents to overcome those deficits and clinch their places in the final.
Hull won in a wide-open 5-3 match after falling behind twice in the first half. Sheffield United got the opener through Jose Baxter, and took the lead once again just minutes after Hull equalized.
Steve Bruce brought on a second striker in the second half, and the Blades struggled mightily to deal with the tactical change. Hull took a 4-2 lead fairly early in the 2nd half, but Sheffield United scored in the 89th minute to put the pressure back on the Tigers. The referee curiously called for just 3 minutes of stoppage time in what was, at that point, a 4-goal half. And David Meyler clinched the match for Hull as Sheffield pushed forward looking for an equalizer.
Hull will face Arsenal in the final. The Gunners went through on penalties after Per Mertesacker made up for his giving away a penalty by scoring the equalizer off a scuffed shot by the excellent Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Lukasz Fabianski has put in some very impressive performances for Arsenal in limited duty this season. He was fantastic in the earlier cup matches against Tottenham, Liverpool, and Everton. He also did remarkably well filling in for Wojcech Szczesny in the Champions League against Bayern after Szczesny was sent off in the 1st leg and suspended for the 2nd.
Yesterday was no different for the oldest of Arsenal's 2 Pole-keepers. Fabianski saved the first two penalties, putting Arsenal in a fantastic position. Mikel Arteta, Kim Kallstrom, Olivier Giroud, and Santi Cazorla all calmly slotted in their penalties to win it like the experienced professionals they are.
In what has been an excruciating spring, the penalty victory brings much needed relief to Arsenal supporters, players, and the manager. Hopefully we can take momentum from this to kick on and put real pressure on Everton in the race for 4th place.
It won't be easy. Everton is flying at the moment. And the Arsenal team does still look fatigued and lacking a cutting edge in attack. We play West Ham in midweek on very short rest after playing 120 minutes at Wembley, and the Hammers will be very well rested after sitting out this weekend.
But with Ramsey and Gibbs back and Koscielny and Ozil reportedly close to rejoining the team, Arsenal may be getting fit at just the right time to pull off a 17th consecutive qualification for Europe's top competition.
Friday, April 11, 2014
EPL Weekend Preview
After looking ahead to the FA Cup yesterday, today I'll preview three of the most important weekend fixtures in the Premier League. The title race and relegation battle could possibly be decided in the next two days.
Fulham v Norwich
In last Saturday's relegation rundown, I looked ahead to Norwich's trip to Fulham as their best chance to win any points before the season is over, as the Canaries play Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their last 4. And then manager Chris Hughton was sacked on Sunday.
Hughton's sacking was bizarre. It seems Norwich is already consigned to relegation. And Fulham can move to within 2 points of Norwich with a victory tomorrow. I expect Norwich to sit deep and try to catch Fulham on the counter.
There is as much optimism at Craven Cottage as there is pessimism at Carrow Road. I can only see one team winning this: Fulham.
Sunderland v Everton
The Black Cats were abysmal at Spurs on Monday. After pouncing on an early Spurs error to take an unlikely lead, Sunderland capitulated defensively and got their marking all wrong for a series of Christian Eriksen crosses. Spurs ended up winning 5-1.
Sunderland sits at the bottom of the table but has two games in hand, although it is hard to see them winning those extra matches in their current form. The ship has to be turned around, immediately, if Sunderland can make up enough ground to stay up.
Everton is coming off a very impressive home victory against Arsenal last Sunday. The Toffees have 4th place in their own hands. Win out and the Champions League spot is their's. Everton has much more difficult matches ahead in their remaining schedule, and they play 3 in the next week. Everton has a midweek matchup with Crystal Palace before taking on David Moyes at Goodison next Sunday. Therefore I would expect Martinez to rotate his team and rest a few of his better players at the Stadium of Light. Perhaps a weakened team can be beaten by Sunderland, but I doubt it. Everton should win this.
Liverpool v Man City
This head-to-head matchup of the title favorites could easily decide who ends up champions a month from now. City is four points behind the leaders but has two games in hand. They simply need to draw to keep their 4 point advantage. If Liverpool can win, however, They will move 7 points ahead of City, meaning City could win their two extra matches and still not catch the Reds.
Liverpool is the in-form team in the league, taking an astounding 31 points from their last 11 matches. They havent dropped any points at Anfield since a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on January 18th. City will have to be at their best to keep control of their Premier League destiny.
City has the talent to do this. By most accounts, City have the strongest team in the league. They beat Liverpool 2-1 at the Etihad on Boxing Day, but the stakes were much lower in that match, and Liverpool wasn't playing this well.
Normally I would side with the better manager in such a crucial match, but both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rogers have never faced this type of pressure in their careers. Pellegrini has never won a European league, his last title came with River Plate in Argentina in 2002. Rogers has never been in the top 4, let alone faced the pressure of a title run-in. Therefore, if I had to predict a result, I would pick a draw.
I will be traveling all day tomorrow so I won't be able to post to the blog until Sunday. Expect a full review of all of this weekend's EPL and FA Cup matches on Sunday afternoon.
Fulham v Norwich
In last Saturday's relegation rundown, I looked ahead to Norwich's trip to Fulham as their best chance to win any points before the season is over, as the Canaries play Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their last 4. And then manager Chris Hughton was sacked on Sunday.
Hughton's sacking was bizarre. It seems Norwich is already consigned to relegation. And Fulham can move to within 2 points of Norwich with a victory tomorrow. I expect Norwich to sit deep and try to catch Fulham on the counter.
There is as much optimism at Craven Cottage as there is pessimism at Carrow Road. I can only see one team winning this: Fulham.
Sunderland v Everton
The Black Cats were abysmal at Spurs on Monday. After pouncing on an early Spurs error to take an unlikely lead, Sunderland capitulated defensively and got their marking all wrong for a series of Christian Eriksen crosses. Spurs ended up winning 5-1.
Sunderland sits at the bottom of the table but has two games in hand, although it is hard to see them winning those extra matches in their current form. The ship has to be turned around, immediately, if Sunderland can make up enough ground to stay up.
Everton is coming off a very impressive home victory against Arsenal last Sunday. The Toffees have 4th place in their own hands. Win out and the Champions League spot is their's. Everton has much more difficult matches ahead in their remaining schedule, and they play 3 in the next week. Everton has a midweek matchup with Crystal Palace before taking on David Moyes at Goodison next Sunday. Therefore I would expect Martinez to rotate his team and rest a few of his better players at the Stadium of Light. Perhaps a weakened team can be beaten by Sunderland, but I doubt it. Everton should win this.
Liverpool v Man City
This head-to-head matchup of the title favorites could easily decide who ends up champions a month from now. City is four points behind the leaders but has two games in hand. They simply need to draw to keep their 4 point advantage. If Liverpool can win, however, They will move 7 points ahead of City, meaning City could win their two extra matches and still not catch the Reds.
Liverpool is the in-form team in the league, taking an astounding 31 points from their last 11 matches. They havent dropped any points at Anfield since a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on January 18th. City will have to be at their best to keep control of their Premier League destiny.
City has the talent to do this. By most accounts, City have the strongest team in the league. They beat Liverpool 2-1 at the Etihad on Boxing Day, but the stakes were much lower in that match, and Liverpool wasn't playing this well.
Normally I would side with the better manager in such a crucial match, but both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rogers have never faced this type of pressure in their careers. Pellegrini has never won a European league, his last title came with River Plate in Argentina in 2002. Rogers has never been in the top 4, let alone faced the pressure of a title run-in. Therefore, if I had to predict a result, I would pick a draw.
I will be traveling all day tomorrow so I won't be able to post to the blog until Sunday. Expect a full review of all of this weekend's EPL and FA Cup matches on Sunday afternoon.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
FA Cup Scouting Report: Wigan Athletic + Thoughts on Wenger
Arsenal gears up for the club's first match at Wembley since Carling Cup Final disappointment against Birmingham City in 2011. The Gunners' FA Cup Semi Final opponent are the current cup holders, Wigan Athletic.
Last year was bittersweet for Wigan. Their FA Cup victory was dampened by their relegation from the Premier League. This specific combination of success and failure has presented Wigan with a interesting set of challenges this season.
The FA Cup holders qualify automatically for the Europa League and the 6 extra matches that come with that. The Championship also has 24 clubs, not 20, and there are 8 more matches per season in the Championship than in the Premier League. As a result, the Championship is a very difficult competition to win without a large squad. The season starts earlier in the summer, leaving less time to prepare in the pre-season. Combine that with midweek trips to Slovenia and Russia, and its clear Wigan wouldn't have as much time to train and prepare for matches as they were used to in the EPL.
The time on the training ground was always going to be important because Wigan's squad started a serious transition. Several Wigan players--such as Arouna Kone, Antolin Alcaraz, Maynor Figueroa, and James McCarthy--left the club. The Latics faced a daunting fixture list with 14 more fixtures than last season while losing a significant amount of depth. Getting back up to the Premier League was always going to be difficult.
On top of that, manager Roberto Martinez left the club to replace David Moyes at Everton. Wigan replaced him with Owen Coyle. Coyle struggled to juggle the additional fixtures with Wigan's lack of depth. After three consecutive home losses, Coyle was sacked on December 2nd.
Coyle had only won 6 Championship matches on December 2nd. The Latics had drawn 4, and lost 6. Coyle's team was distinctly average. They were 14th in the Championship, they were going out of the Europa League in the group stage, and they were killed 5-0 at Manchester City in the Capital One Cup. Coyle's team looked lost. The difficulties of the fixture list seemed to be too much for the Scot to handle. When Coyle's team conceded 3 easy goals at home against Derby County, that was his kiss of death.
In stepped Uwe Rosler. And Wigan's fortunes changed straight away.
Wigan has won 13 Championship matches since sacking Coyle. They have drawn 5 and lost only 7. Wigan has been much better under Rosler, taking 44 points of the 75 available (59%) after taking just 22 of 48 (46%) under Coyle. The results have showed this. They have risen from 14th to 5th in the Championship. Their EPL dream is back on.
But perhaps Rosler's Wigan has been most impressive in the FA Cup. After needing a replay in Milton Keynes to beat MK Dons in Round 3, Wigan has beaten 3 consecutive Premier League opponents to reach Wembley for the second straight year. Wigan beat Crystal Palace and Cardiff before going into a quarterfinal at the Etihad for a rematch of last year's final. The Latics beat City 2-nil.
Rosler has fixed the defensive problems that cost Coyle his job; problems that existed even under Martinez in the Premier League. Wigan now has the 4th best defense in the Championship.
Leon Barnett, Emmerson Boyce, and James Perch all bring Premiership experience to the Wigan back-line. James McArthur is a box-to-box midfielder with excellent stamina, and FA Cup hero Ben Watson adds defensive backbone to the Wigan midfield. Wigan can struggle to score goals, but Manchester United loanee Nick Powell is the team's leading scorer with 7 goals. Jordi Gomez, Marc-Antoine Fortune, James McClean, and Callum McManaman also bring attacking ability and Premier League experience.
Make no mistake, Wigan fields a team of Premier League cast-offs and misfits. There is a reason these players have Premier League experience. Perhaps the exceptions are Powell and McManaman, but these players cannot match the quality Arsenal has in their locker--even with so many players out injured.
However, Rosler seems to be getting the maximum in FA Cup matches. It would be a real mistake to take Wigan lightly. They have beaten 3 straight Premier League opponents, two of which away from home, to get back to Wembley. Rosler has stressed that the pressure is completely on Arsenal to win the game, and that his team has nothing to lose. If Wigan takes that mindset and plays as well as they did at the Etihad a month ago, they can beat anyone.
Arsenal will need to be much better than how they've played currently to beat Wigan on Saturday.
On a separate note, a few have asked why I haven't participated in the "Wenger: should he stay or go" discussion that has been flying around the Arsenal blogosphere the last few days.
Believe me, I was furious after the Everton defeat and I wanted to post my angry reactions. I understand completely why people chose to question Wenger's ability after yet another bitterly disappointing defeat in which Arsenal was (and I saw this on nearly every post I found) "out-fought and out-thought" by Martinez'z Everton. I planned on writing something similar.
But I knew I needed to calm down. I knew that as big a match last Sunday's match at Everton was, this week's match was bigger. I took some time and wrote about NCAA basketball instead, which helped my emotions cool off. I gained some needed perspective that only time could provide.
The bottom line is that major questions should be asked of Arsene Wenger. There is no doubt about that.
But not right now.
The season is not over yet.
For the first time in 5 years Arsenal still has a trophy to play for in April. I don't see any benefit in putting additional pressure on the manager and our players like many have all week. I'm not saying I disagree with the opinions being shared; in fact I agree with most of them. I just don't see any possible benefit in sharing them right now, because there is still so much left to play for. And this team obviously struggles to deal with additional pressure.
The best example is how poorly we played on Wenger's 1,000th career match after a week of media conversation about Wenger and his place in history. These players quite clearly can't handle the pressure of playing for their manager's legacy. There hasn't been a worse performance all season than at Stamford Bridge. Out of the match in 15 minutes. That's how we responded to this kind of pressure before.
I don't see any benefit in ramping up that pressure again by keeping the Wenger conversation going all week. The reactions on Sunday and Monday made sense, but after that, it all seems unnecessary and self-defeating. The players don't need to be reminded. I can't see them improving their efforts to make sure Wenger's legacy ends on a high note. I can only see a repeat of the recent massacres at Stamford Bridge and Goodison, when the pressure has been at its highest.
The fact is, this Saturday is the biggest game since the Cup Final in 2011. This cup (because of the lack of quality opposition remaining) presents a great chance of finally ending the trophy drought. We are the overwhelming favorites. We simply need to finish the job.
That trophy is all our players need to be focused on right now. Wigan is a tough opponent. They need to be focused on Wigan and not how each remaining match will write the ending to Arsene Wenger's book. When there are no more trophies left to play for, let the manager come under scrutiny.
But not right now.
Last year was bittersweet for Wigan. Their FA Cup victory was dampened by their relegation from the Premier League. This specific combination of success and failure has presented Wigan with a interesting set of challenges this season.
The FA Cup holders qualify automatically for the Europa League and the 6 extra matches that come with that. The Championship also has 24 clubs, not 20, and there are 8 more matches per season in the Championship than in the Premier League. As a result, the Championship is a very difficult competition to win without a large squad. The season starts earlier in the summer, leaving less time to prepare in the pre-season. Combine that with midweek trips to Slovenia and Russia, and its clear Wigan wouldn't have as much time to train and prepare for matches as they were used to in the EPL.
The time on the training ground was always going to be important because Wigan's squad started a serious transition. Several Wigan players--such as Arouna Kone, Antolin Alcaraz, Maynor Figueroa, and James McCarthy--left the club. The Latics faced a daunting fixture list with 14 more fixtures than last season while losing a significant amount of depth. Getting back up to the Premier League was always going to be difficult.
On top of that, manager Roberto Martinez left the club to replace David Moyes at Everton. Wigan replaced him with Owen Coyle. Coyle struggled to juggle the additional fixtures with Wigan's lack of depth. After three consecutive home losses, Coyle was sacked on December 2nd.
Coyle had only won 6 Championship matches on December 2nd. The Latics had drawn 4, and lost 6. Coyle's team was distinctly average. They were 14th in the Championship, they were going out of the Europa League in the group stage, and they were killed 5-0 at Manchester City in the Capital One Cup. Coyle's team looked lost. The difficulties of the fixture list seemed to be too much for the Scot to handle. When Coyle's team conceded 3 easy goals at home against Derby County, that was his kiss of death.
In stepped Uwe Rosler. And Wigan's fortunes changed straight away.
Wigan has won 13 Championship matches since sacking Coyle. They have drawn 5 and lost only 7. Wigan has been much better under Rosler, taking 44 points of the 75 available (59%) after taking just 22 of 48 (46%) under Coyle. The results have showed this. They have risen from 14th to 5th in the Championship. Their EPL dream is back on.
But perhaps Rosler's Wigan has been most impressive in the FA Cup. After needing a replay in Milton Keynes to beat MK Dons in Round 3, Wigan has beaten 3 consecutive Premier League opponents to reach Wembley for the second straight year. Wigan beat Crystal Palace and Cardiff before going into a quarterfinal at the Etihad for a rematch of last year's final. The Latics beat City 2-nil.
Rosler has fixed the defensive problems that cost Coyle his job; problems that existed even under Martinez in the Premier League. Wigan now has the 4th best defense in the Championship.
Leon Barnett, Emmerson Boyce, and James Perch all bring Premiership experience to the Wigan back-line. James McArthur is a box-to-box midfielder with excellent stamina, and FA Cup hero Ben Watson adds defensive backbone to the Wigan midfield. Wigan can struggle to score goals, but Manchester United loanee Nick Powell is the team's leading scorer with 7 goals. Jordi Gomez, Marc-Antoine Fortune, James McClean, and Callum McManaman also bring attacking ability and Premier League experience.
Make no mistake, Wigan fields a team of Premier League cast-offs and misfits. There is a reason these players have Premier League experience. Perhaps the exceptions are Powell and McManaman, but these players cannot match the quality Arsenal has in their locker--even with so many players out injured.
However, Rosler seems to be getting the maximum in FA Cup matches. It would be a real mistake to take Wigan lightly. They have beaten 3 straight Premier League opponents, two of which away from home, to get back to Wembley. Rosler has stressed that the pressure is completely on Arsenal to win the game, and that his team has nothing to lose. If Wigan takes that mindset and plays as well as they did at the Etihad a month ago, they can beat anyone.
Arsenal will need to be much better than how they've played currently to beat Wigan on Saturday.
On a separate note, a few have asked why I haven't participated in the "Wenger: should he stay or go" discussion that has been flying around the Arsenal blogosphere the last few days.
Believe me, I was furious after the Everton defeat and I wanted to post my angry reactions. I understand completely why people chose to question Wenger's ability after yet another bitterly disappointing defeat in which Arsenal was (and I saw this on nearly every post I found) "out-fought and out-thought" by Martinez'z Everton. I planned on writing something similar.
But I knew I needed to calm down. I knew that as big a match last Sunday's match at Everton was, this week's match was bigger. I took some time and wrote about NCAA basketball instead, which helped my emotions cool off. I gained some needed perspective that only time could provide.
The bottom line is that major questions should be asked of Arsene Wenger. There is no doubt about that.
But not right now.
The season is not over yet.
For the first time in 5 years Arsenal still has a trophy to play for in April. I don't see any benefit in putting additional pressure on the manager and our players like many have all week. I'm not saying I disagree with the opinions being shared; in fact I agree with most of them. I just don't see any possible benefit in sharing them right now, because there is still so much left to play for. And this team obviously struggles to deal with additional pressure.
The best example is how poorly we played on Wenger's 1,000th career match after a week of media conversation about Wenger and his place in history. These players quite clearly can't handle the pressure of playing for their manager's legacy. There hasn't been a worse performance all season than at Stamford Bridge. Out of the match in 15 minutes. That's how we responded to this kind of pressure before.
I don't see any benefit in ramping up that pressure again by keeping the Wenger conversation going all week. The reactions on Sunday and Monday made sense, but after that, it all seems unnecessary and self-defeating. The players don't need to be reminded. I can't see them improving their efforts to make sure Wenger's legacy ends on a high note. I can only see a repeat of the recent massacres at Stamford Bridge and Goodison, when the pressure has been at its highest.
The fact is, this Saturday is the biggest game since the Cup Final in 2011. This cup (because of the lack of quality opposition remaining) presents a great chance of finally ending the trophy drought. We are the overwhelming favorites. We simply need to finish the job.
That trophy is all our players need to be focused on right now. Wigan is a tough opponent. They need to be focused on Wigan and not how each remaining match will write the ending to Arsene Wenger's book. When there are no more trophies left to play for, let the manager come under scrutiny.
But not right now.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
World's Best Make Champions League Semis, and Chelsea Does Too
Today the final spots in the UEFA Champions League Semi-Final were taken by Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich. Yesterday Real Madrid and Chelsea qualified in very exciting matches.
Here are my thoughts on the remaining 4 teams:
(in order of quality)
1. Bayern Munich
- Guardiola's team dominates possession and exerts full control over long stretches of matches by working hard to get the ball back within seconds of losing it. Manchester United tried to slow Bayern down by throwing the entire team behind the ball.
- United was able to take the lead in both legs, but Bayern was so resilient (or United was so mentally fragile, depending how you look at it) that Bayern equalized immediately.
- That Bayern was able to withstand the loss of their most defensive-minded midfielders (Schweinsteiger and Martinez) to win the tie was particularly impressive. But the remaining 3 teams will all pose a much bigger threat than United did (even Chelsea). United looks out of place at this level.
2. Atletico Madrid
- This year's "surprise" semifinalists are superior to their Galactico neighbors. Atletico dominated Barcelona at the Camp Nou, hitting the crossbar thee times after Koke scored what turned out to be the winning goal in the first 5 minutes.
- Atletico shouldn't be surprising anyone because they are first in La Liga. Koke and Diego Costa will probably start for Spain in the upcoming World Cup as well.
- Diego Simeone has built a real powerhouse club here. He might be on a few of the big clubs' wishlists this summer, but it will take a lot to convince Simeone to leave Atletico. Having played for Atletico for 6 seasons as a player, Simeone is enjoying his renaissance, and might not want to leave the club again any time soon.
3. Real Madrid
- Last night, Real was torn to shreds by Marco Reus. Reus scored 2 first half goals against Madrid to really scare the Galacticos, and if Henrik Mkhitaryan had scored instead of hitting the post after rounding Iker Casillas in the 2nd half, Madrid would have thrown away their 3-0 win in the first leg.
- Notably, Ronaldo was rested for last night's game. The Ballon d'Or winner clearly makes Madrid a better team. But not without controversy. Ronaldo has been jeered recently at the Bernabeau, as Madrid fans have grown tired of Ronaldo's selfishness. Some fans think Ronaldo puts his own numbers ahead of the club by failing to pass to teammates in better scoring positions and trying to shoot for goal himself instead.
- Madrid is currently 3rd in La Liga, and while they do have a very potent attack, the midfield and defense haven't been up to standard. Madrid looks beatable right now. Its hard to see how they could handle the Bayern or Atletico attacks. But Chelsea, that's another story.
4. Chelsea
- Chelsea was the only club to win their quarter-final via the away goals tie-braker. The away goal that won the tie was a penalty kick.
- The Blues caught a huge break in that PSG's best attacker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, was injured in the first leg. Without Ibrahimovic, PSG struggled to convert multiple chances to score away goals last night. Chelsea survived truly by the thinnest, and luckiest, of margins.
- Hazard was injured last night and might not be fit for the semi-finals. Chelsea cannot play Nemanja Matic, their next best player, in European competition. Chelsea's best striker is 33-year-old Samuel Eto'o. The players Chelsea has available simply aren't good enough to win this. Just like they weren't good enough in 2012 and...oh wait.
- But their manager is so fast! Jose Mourinho showed last night while he was sprinting down the touchline after Demba Ba's late winner that he is miles quicker than his captain and resident-racist: John Terry.
Here are my thoughts on the remaining 4 teams:
(in order of quality)
1. Bayern Munich
- Guardiola's team dominates possession and exerts full control over long stretches of matches by working hard to get the ball back within seconds of losing it. Manchester United tried to slow Bayern down by throwing the entire team behind the ball.
- United was able to take the lead in both legs, but Bayern was so resilient (or United was so mentally fragile, depending how you look at it) that Bayern equalized immediately.
- That Bayern was able to withstand the loss of their most defensive-minded midfielders (Schweinsteiger and Martinez) to win the tie was particularly impressive. But the remaining 3 teams will all pose a much bigger threat than United did (even Chelsea). United looks out of place at this level.
2. Atletico Madrid
- This year's "surprise" semifinalists are superior to their Galactico neighbors. Atletico dominated Barcelona at the Camp Nou, hitting the crossbar thee times after Koke scored what turned out to be the winning goal in the first 5 minutes.
- Atletico shouldn't be surprising anyone because they are first in La Liga. Koke and Diego Costa will probably start for Spain in the upcoming World Cup as well.
- Diego Simeone has built a real powerhouse club here. He might be on a few of the big clubs' wishlists this summer, but it will take a lot to convince Simeone to leave Atletico. Having played for Atletico for 6 seasons as a player, Simeone is enjoying his renaissance, and might not want to leave the club again any time soon.
3. Real Madrid
- Last night, Real was torn to shreds by Marco Reus. Reus scored 2 first half goals against Madrid to really scare the Galacticos, and if Henrik Mkhitaryan had scored instead of hitting the post after rounding Iker Casillas in the 2nd half, Madrid would have thrown away their 3-0 win in the first leg.
- Notably, Ronaldo was rested for last night's game. The Ballon d'Or winner clearly makes Madrid a better team. But not without controversy. Ronaldo has been jeered recently at the Bernabeau, as Madrid fans have grown tired of Ronaldo's selfishness. Some fans think Ronaldo puts his own numbers ahead of the club by failing to pass to teammates in better scoring positions and trying to shoot for goal himself instead.
- Madrid is currently 3rd in La Liga, and while they do have a very potent attack, the midfield and defense haven't been up to standard. Madrid looks beatable right now. Its hard to see how they could handle the Bayern or Atletico attacks. But Chelsea, that's another story.
4. Chelsea
- Chelsea was the only club to win their quarter-final via the away goals tie-braker. The away goal that won the tie was a penalty kick.
- The Blues caught a huge break in that PSG's best attacker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, was injured in the first leg. Without Ibrahimovic, PSG struggled to convert multiple chances to score away goals last night. Chelsea survived truly by the thinnest, and luckiest, of margins.
- Hazard was injured last night and might not be fit for the semi-finals. Chelsea cannot play Nemanja Matic, their next best player, in European competition. Chelsea's best striker is 33-year-old Samuel Eto'o. The players Chelsea has available simply aren't good enough to win this. Just like they weren't good enough in 2012 and...oh wait.
- But their manager is so fast! Jose Mourinho showed last night while he was sprinting down the touchline after Demba Ba's late winner that he is miles quicker than his captain and resident-racist: John Terry.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Hungry Huskies Win, NCAA Loses
Seconds after leading his school to its 4th NCAA
tournament victory in 15 years, Shabazz Napier grabbed the microphone and
addressed 80,000 people in AT&T Stadium:
“Ladies and gentlemen, you’re looking at the hungry Huskies! This is what happens when you ban us! Last year, two years, we worked so hard for it. Two years—“
At that point CBS acted swiftly to hide what they deemed to be Napier's criticism of the NCAA from their televised broadcast. CBS company-man/anchorman Jim Nantz grabbed the
microphone from Napier to tell him he had been named Tournament MVP, and
CBS cut to a commercial break.
CBS must have worried giving Napier a chance to air his school’s
grievances might jeopardize the network’s 11 year-$10.8 billion broadcasting contract with the NCAA.
This morning, numerous reports have labeled Napier’s 3
sentences “controversial,” but was it as controversial as the academic ban
Napier referred to?
In 2012, the NCAA handed UConn a 1-year postseason ban for failing to meet academic standards. What was once a 1-or-2 scholarship penalty swiftly turned into a much more serious punishment.
The NCAA changed the rules (or rather, the punishment for breaking the rules) mid-game, and UConn’s paid the price for what amounted to a retroactive punishment for conduct that never had been judged so harshly. UConn players who had done everything right were punished harshly for the actions of a few players who came and left the program before they ever arrived.
Why is this the first time you've heard about the NCAA's retroactive punishment?
CBS is a major partner with Turner Broadcasting in the NCAA Tournament. Turner
controls Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com. As mentioned earlier, CBS/Turner’s
exclusive broadcasting contract cost nearly $11 billion
and will last until 2025.
ESPN also has a $500 million broadcasting contract for regular
season and NIT basketball games that also lasts until 2025.
The
unfairness of UConn’s postseason ban was largely swept under the rug because
the two major American sports “journalism” outlets had a major stake in
protecting and promoting the best interests of the NCAA.
How exactly did the NCAA change the punishment on UConn?
The NCAA uses an Academic Performance Rate (APR) to evaluate
whether a specific program complies with academic standards. The rate is fairly
simple to explain. Each school must keep over 92.5% their scholarship players
academically eligible over a 2-year period, and 90% over a 4-year period.
A player can leave a school early to play professionally,
but must be in good academic standing at the time of dropping out in order to
help the program’s APR and not hurt it.
First of all, the system in itself slants against basketball and for football. NCAA basketball players must be enrolled
in both the fall and spring semesters in order to participate. NCAA football
players only must be enrolled in the fall. Basketball players have to juggle
academic and athletic commitments over two semesters, not just one.
In addition, football players can drop out before the
spring semester in order to prepare for the NFL draft and their programs’ don’t
feel nearly the same consequences as basketball players. Basketball players are forced to
decide whether to complete a spring semester at a school they plan to leave or improve
their skills in the gym to impress their future employer.
At the end of the day, isn't college supposed to be about
developing students into professionals?
The NBA draft is nothing more than a
job offer to a college student. Should a school’s computer science department
be penalized if its best students drop out to take jobs at Google? If an NBA
team wants to give a college athlete a professional contract, why should the
NCAA punish the program that helped that athlete develop into a professional?
Was the NCAA trying to act in its athletes’ best
interests with this? Or were they maintaining the appearance of academia and rebuilding their case that basketball
players are “student-athletes,” and not employees?
Anyway, I’m getting sidetracked. Back to the injustices
of the APR as it applies to college basketball in general, and UConn in
particular.
The lower numbers of scholarships allowed on a college
basketball team mean one or two bad students are very hard to recover from. Football
teams are allowed 85 scholarship players. Basketball teams are allowed 13.
A football team can have 13 academically-ineligible athletes (equivalent
to an entire basketball roster) and have the same rate as a basketball team
with 2 guys out.
This makes it extremely difficult for basketball programs
to recover from a couple players who decided not to take their academic
commitments seriously. APR is measured
over 2 and 4 year increments, which is not enough time for a program with a bad
academic year to recover.
For example, for the sake of easy math, let’s say men’s
basketball had the same scholarship limit as women’s basketball—15.
One year X
team had 15 scholarship players. 11 finished the year in good academic standing.
Another left school early to go to the NBA but took his May finals and left in
good academic standing.
2 are academically ineligible but still in school,
trying to get their grades up. 1 more left school without taking his finals in
pursuit of the NBA. The program gets credit for 12 of the 15 players and
scores an academic progress rate of 80%.
That rate is multiplied by 1,000 to get the 3-digit score
the NCAA uses to evaluate academic progress. So in the above example, X team would
have an APR of 800.
Even if X team keeps all of its players in good
academic standing the next year, the two year rate
would still be 27/30 or 90%, bringing their score up to just 900.
NCAA guidelines set the minimum 2-year APR at 925 and 4-year
minimum at 900. But before 2012, failure to comply with these guidelines simply
meant programs would lose one or two scholarships until the APR rose to an
acceptable rate. The penalty changed
drastically in 2012, but the NCAA still used academic numbers from 2009, 2010,
and 2011 (when the punishment was far less severe) to get a 2012 APR score.
UConn had a bad academic season in 2009/10. The Huskies' APR was 826.
In 2010/11, however, the Huskies excelled in both the classroom and on the
court, winning the national championship and scoring an APR of 978.
Despite this significant improvement, UConn’s 2-year APR
was just 902, 23 points below the NCAA’s minimum. The NCAA suspended UConn from
2012/13 postseason play as punishment.
Shabazz Napier's freshman year began in 2010. No player on the current UConn team played with the "bad apples" of 2009. And when he signed to play for UConn, the punishment for such a low APR was not nearly as severe. He and his teammates had every right to feel hard-done-by.
Napier's team
was unfairly punished. And he stuck with UConn through the bad times. A
champion in his freshman year, perhaps no single player faced more adversity
during his time in school. No player has ever faced a bigger temptation to
leave a school behind and go pro. But Napier stuck through it all. And he
brought his team back to the top on his way out the door.
Frankly, I wish Napier had been given more time to speak. I wanted to hear everything he had to say.
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