Saturday, April 5, 2014

EPL Review April 5 - The Relegation Rundown

Most of today's drama took place at the bottom of the Premier League table, as City and Chelsea won by 3 goal margins at home to keep their title credentials. Hull all but secured their safety with a 1-0 home win against Swansea.

The away team won every other match today. These 3 were the most crucial to the upcoming relegation fight.

Cardiff 0 - Crystal Palace 3

Cardiff seems doomed to the Championship at this point. The Bluebirds (in red shirts) were thoroughly outplayed and outmatched by Tony Pulis's Crystal Palace. And while it looks as though Cardiff failed to take their last chance to escape from the bottom 3, their remaining fixtures are actually very kind.

It will take a much better effort than what Cardiff put forth today, but the Bluebirds could stay up yet.

Cardiff's last 5 matches are Southampton (A), Stoke (H), Sunderland (A), Newcastle (A), and Chelsea (H). Cardiff has the worst away form in the league, but they are fortunate to visit Southampton and Newcastle this late in the season. Both opponents are safely mid-table and will not have much to play for. Newcastle in particular looks like a team that has checked out completely. And a loss at Anfield would most likely mean the Blues will clinch their position in the table before their last match at Cardiff. Chelsea could possibly be resting their star players in what would amount to a meaningless match for them.

Sunderland away will obviously be a must-win match for both sides. The loser will surely sink to the Championship, and a draw could possibly bring the same result for both clubs. Sunderland currently sits bottom with 25 points and 3 games in hand. If Sunderland wins just one of those 3 extra matches it would move the Black Cats into 18th. Cardiff must beat Sunderland if they want to continue fighting in the top division after so many years in the lower leagues.

Norwich City 0 - West Brom 1

The Baggies rebounded from a shocking 3-3 draw against Cardiff last week to take the three points in East Anglia today. Norwich were unlucky not to equalize, hitting the woodwork multiple times. But the win moved West Brom ahead of Norwich on goal difference, and the Canaries now sit in the dreaded 17th position, nervously looking over their shoulder when they need to be fixated on a daunting schedule ahead.

West Brom's season has been as bizarre as Morgan Amalfitano's personal competition for Premier League goal of the season. West Brom has just 12 losses this season, less than Newcastle, Stoke, West Ham, and Hull. But before today's win at Carrow Road, West Brom had the least amount of wins in the league. Now they are tied for last with Cardiff and Sunderland with just 6 wins. Obviously, they've drawn a lot of matches. 14 to be specific. 4 more than anyone else.

West Brom knows they'll need to win a few more to ensure safety. And their schedule is similar to Cardiff's in that it features a few teams who won't have much to play for. The Baggies' last 6 matches are: Tottenham (H), City(A), West Ham (H), Arsenal (A), Sunderland (A), and Stoke (H).

While the matches against City and Arsenal away will be tough to take anything from, the other matches look better for West Brom. Mid-table matchups with Spurs, West Ham, and Stoke--all at home--could be what keeps West Brom up another year.

Norwich, on the other hand, has an absolute gauntlet ahead of them. Norwich plays Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (A), and Arsenal (H). Norwich already has the 2nd worst away record in the league, and they haven't even played at Old Trafford or at Stamford Bridge yet! Add in next week's relegation 6-pointer at Craven Cottage and Norwich looks very likely to end up in the bottom 3.

It's entirely possible Norwich will end the season with the 32 points they have right now. Chris Hughton has a massive job ahead of him. Norwich's unlikely victories against some of England's best clubs have kept them in the Premier League for 3 years. They'll need to replicate that form if they are earn a 4th.

Aston Villa 1 - Fulham 2

Hugo Rodallega--whose late-season goals saved Wigan from the drop a few times in seasons' past--scored the winner to secure a vital 3 points for Fulham. Fulham took advantage of a toothless Villa team that just this week lost Benteke for the remainder of the season as the big Belgian was injured in training.

Villa isn't safe yet, and they have a fairly difficult 6 matches remaining. They play Crystal Palace (A), Southampton (H), Swansea (A), Hull (H), Manchester City (A), and Tottenham (A). Villa must win their 2 remaining home matches against Southampton and Hull. That would get them to the fabled 40-point mark.

The other matches aren't so easy. Villa will have to visit 3 teams who are either fighting for the title or fighting for their own survival. They couldn't have picked a worse time to play at Crystal Palace.

Without Benteke, Villa may struggle to score goals. Not a good sign for a team that is tied for 4th worst in the league with 48 goals conceded. Paul Lambert is a good manager, and he will need to be if he is going to keep Villa out of the bottom 3 at season's end.

Fulham is on their tails. Today's victory moved Fulham from last to 18th. The Cottagers may have just enough to stay up after all.

Fulham is the anti-West Brom. They've drawn only 3 matches, won 8, and lost a whopping 22. They've lost more home matches than anyone. Only Norwich has more away losses.

Fulham has conceded an embarrassing 74 goals. Well over 2 per match, and 3 times more than West London rivals Chelsea.

And yet a few more 2-1 victories may be all it takes for Felix Magath to work his magic and save the Cottagers from the brink of relegation yet again. The man does not go down easy. In fact he never has.

Fulham plays Norwich (H), Spurs (A), Hull (H), Stoke (A), and finally Crystal Palace (H). The significance of the Norwich match is obvious. And given Norwich's woeful away record, Fulham will be very confident next week. Plus, in all likelihood, Crystal Palace's current form will guarantee their safety before Fulham's last match. Spurs, Hull, and Stoke all seem safe already. Its a very kind schedule for Fulham.

I'll admit I completely wrote Fulham off months ago. But surprising, unpredictable results like today's are what makes the Premier League so great...as long as you aren't a gambler!

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