Thursday, August 14, 2014

The Ramblin' EPL Preview/Predictions

The EPL season starts on Saturday. Last year, the league had one of its biggest-ever gaps between the top and bottom teams. 8 teams finished with 40 points (the traditional safe zone) or fewer. Man City and Liverpool both eclipsed over 100 league goals scored.

It looks as though the rich will get richer. Most of the top teams strengthened this summer, and some of the teams in the bottom half 1) struggled to keep their best players or 2) failed to strengthen enough to take a step forward. This is how I see this year's league playing out.

Predictions

1. Man City - The Citizens were the dominant team in the Premier League last year, scoring more goals than Liverpool and conceding fewer goals than every team except Chelsea. City added a very expensive, if inexperienced, center half in Mangala and a very experienced, if inexpensive, right back in Sagna. Both will add depth and quality to their defense. Fernando was added to replace Javi Garcia. And Lampard was curiously "loaned" from Man City's subsidiary club--New York City FC. The two midfield additions should help City manage when their talisman, Yaya Toure, is at the African Nations Cup. City have the same attacking firepower they showcased last season, and they have improved at the back. They are the favorites to keep league title.

2. Chelsea - The league's best defense got a whole lot better this summer. First it was a case of addition by subtraction - selling David Luiz to PSG made Chelsea more disciplined defensively. Then Chelsea brought in quality players. Courtois might be the best goalkeeper in the Premier League right now. Diego Costa and Fabregas are upgrades on Eto'o and Lampard in the attack. Filipe Luis will shift Azpilicueta over to his more natural right back position, which will improve the Chelsea defense and attack. My main question with Chelsea is a philosophical one. Hazard was vocal in his frustration about playing Mourinho's preferred conservative tactics last season. Will Mourinho be able to keep his players happy? Or will there be a mutiny on his hands when the Chelsea players get tired of parking the bus?

3. Arsenal - The Gunners opened the checkbook this summer and bought Alexis Sanchez. He immediately adds directness and pace to the Arsenal attack, but he also will need time to develop an understanding with Arsenal's other attacking options. We might not see the best of him until the spring. Debuchy is an upgrade on Sagna at right back, Chambers looks like a real gem of a prospect who can play multiple positions, and Joel Campbell will get his chance as another fast, direct attacking option. Arsenal already possessed the best group of young attacking midfielders in the league, but as of yet have not addressed their two weakest areas - holding midfield and a lack of depth in defense. Ideally they can address both areas with one signing before the window closes. A player who can play both in defensive midfield and central defense would be a perfect fit. Until then, I do not think Arsenal has enough depth to win the league, but more than enough quality to improve on last year's 4th place finish.

4. Manchester United - A new chapter begins at Old Trafford with new manager Louis Van Gaal. Rooney will partner van Persie in a 3-5-2 - a formation that gives both players freedom to roam to the wings without getting in each other's way, something the two have struggled with in their first two years together. Mata will pull the strings in his preferred central role. On paper, the 3-5-2 is a perfect fit for United's 3 best attacking players. But there are still problems in other areas. New signing Ander Herrera will need to carry a group of below average central midfielders (Fletcher, Fellaini, Carrick, and Cleverly). I can see why Van Gaal pursued Vidal so aggressively, his midfield options are far worse than his competitors'. And United's weakest area for the last two seasons has been central defense. Van Gaal's tactics address this weakness by adding a third central defender to the back line. This strategy worked wonders for Holland in a 7-game tournament, but the problem is, if Smalling, Jones, or Evans gets injured or suspended, there are zero experienced options to replace them. Van Gaal has actively pursued left-footed center backs this summer. First he missed out on Vermaelen and now Sporting has pursued legal action to keep Marcos Rojo from forcing a move to Old Trafford. I do think United will add Rojo before the deadline, and in the end, I think United will squeak into the top 4. The additional rest and preparation they will be afforded by virtue of avoiding European competition will be enough to get United back into the top 4.

5. Liverpool - Liverpool knows how nice it is to avoid European play. They won't have that luxury this year. They also won't have the league's best player anymore, as Suarez was sold to Barcelona. In Sterling, Coutinho, Lallana, and Henderson Liverpool has a good group of talented young midfielders. Daniel Sturridge was perhaps the single-biggest beneficiary of playing with Suarez last year. I don't see him holding up as the Reds' main man while also playing in more matches. Sturridge's injury record is troublesome. His new backup, Lambert, is a shorter version of Grant Holt. Lots of money was paid for Alberto Moreno and Dejan Lovren to fix Liverpool's leaky defense, when in my opinion the root of Liverpool's defensive problems lie further up the pitch. Steven Gerrard can pass the ball, but his ability to be the "shield" in front of the defense is pathetic. Lovren, who played behind the excellent Schneiderlin at Southampton last year, is going to need to cover a lot more ground in Liverpool's setup. The added fatigue of Europe, the loss of Suarez, and the lack of defensive protection from midfield will expose Liverpool this year. I see them finishing closer to sixth than fourth.

6. Tottenham - New manager Mauricio Pocchetino will take over and immediately improve Spurs after suffering under the tactically inept Tim Sherwood for half a year. The squad will need to take a step forward in Pocchetino's system. After a full year getting adjusted to England, it will be a make-or-break season for the several players bought with the Gareth Bale money a year ago. While I doubt Erik Lamela will ever live up to his transfer fee, I do think Pocchetino will have Spurs playing better than they did last season. Unlike other teams, Spurs have an abundance of first team players, 32 to be exact, and should be able to adequately handle Europa League commitments. In all Spurs will have the quantity to stay in the top 7 and stay in the Europa League, but not the quality to crack the top 4 and secure Champions League.

7. Everton - The Toffees are the opposite of Spurs. They have quality in their team, but not quantity. Last year's 5th place finish will add Europa League matches to their schedule. Lukaku and Barry were brought in on permanent contracts after impressing on loan last year, but consequently most of Everton's resources were spent keeping the status quo, rather than adding players they'll need to push on and build on last year's finish. Roberto Martinez is one of the league's best managers, but with an aging defense and a lack of depth throughout the squad, Everton will struggle to replicate last year's great form.

8. Stoke - Stoke is one of the league's best teams at home. The Potters are decent defensively but a bit toothless in attack. Mark Hughes attempted to address the problem by bringing in two new forwards: Man U and Barcelona castoffs Mame Biram Diouf and Bojan Krkic. Hughes has had his struggles at either ends of the League with Man City and QPR, but he seems at his best with mid-table clubs like Stoke. Can he build Stoke into a dark horse for Europe like his old teams at Blackburn?

9. Southampton - Southampton may have lost more assets than any club this summer. Their manager and 5 starters stepped up to bigger clubs. While many are fearing the worst (some even picking the Saints to finish in the bottom 3) I actually really like the moves Southampton made to replace what they lost this summer. The defense will be weaker and might concede more shots, so Southampton bought Fraser Forster. Forster is a big upgrade over Boruc in goal. Ronald Koeman is an experienced manager and he has bought two of the best attackers from the Dutch league in Tadic and Pelle. They will replace Lallana and Lambert. Tadic was the best player in Holland last season according to whoscored.com, and he has impressed in preseason. Only time will tell if Pelle can transition into a better striker than Lambert. Eredivisie forwards can be unpredictable in the Premier League. You never know if you're paying for Bony or Alfonso Alves. Saints' recent acquisition of Shane Long, who has scored goals wherever he's played in England, seems like a wise insurance policy. If Southampton can keep Schneiderlin, I think they are a safe pick to finish mid-table.

10. Swansea - Like Man United, Swansea will have the weight of European play lifted off their shoulders this season. Fabianski (like Mannone at Sunderland last year) could shine as the replacement for Vorm in a first team role. Argentine international Federico Fernandez is a big upgrade on the departed Chico Flores in defense. Sigurdsson returns to the club where he was at his best. And even if Swansea cannot keep their star striker Wilfried Bony, experienced Frenchman Bafetimbi Gomis could fill in and do well. Swansea had the 8th best goal difference in the league last season, they were better than their league position often reflected. Without the distraction of Europa League football, I see the Swans as a safe bet for a mid-table finish.

11. Crystal Palace - Tony Pulis worked wonders after being hired last winter, adding several crucial players in January and leading Crystal Palace on a rampant run of form in the second half of the season, securing unlikely safety from relegation with ease. Pulis is not the neutral's manager. His teams are often extremely conservative and pragmatic, but also effective. I can't say I particularly like him or his preferred style of play. But I can admit that it works. The Eagles failed to strengthen with new players this summer, and still have a somewhat weak squad, and they really struggle to score goals, but Pulis keeps teams in the Premier League. He'll do so again with Crystal Palace this season.

EDIT: According to reports, Pulis has resigned. Suddenly Crystal Palace's Premier League future doesn't seem so secure.

12. Newcastle United - Newcastle was one of the league's biggest surprises in the first half of the season. Then they sold Yohan Cabeye. The wheels fell off as Alan Pardew headbutted an opposing player and the Newcastle players simply stopped caring about winning and losing. In the second half of the year, Newcastle was one of the league's worst teams. Cabeye and Remy, their two best players from last year, are gone. Hatem Ben Arfa, probably Newcastle's most talented player, has been frozen out by Pardew for an "unprofessional attitude" (which is rich, coming from Pardew). New players have been added to steer the ship back on course, but most are not from England, and therefore Cabella, De Jong, Janmaat, Riviere, and Ferreyra will all need time to adapt. Newcastle should still have enough talent to stay up, but not enough to put together a genuine threat for a European place.

13. West Ham - Big Sam gets his teams to be solid defensively and direct in attack. That's what he does. And the West Ham fans aren't happy. They want attractive, attacking football. New signings Enner Valencia and Mauro Zarate will need to add flair and creativity to the West Ham attack in order to keep the Hammers' fans off Big Sam's back. All I can say to the West Ham fans is: be careful what you wish for. While sacking Big Sam might move the parked bus away from The Boleyn Ground, it might take the club right back to the Championship. Allardyce has an average, aging squad playing about as well as can be expected. It took multiple loaned players to keep West Ham from the drop zone last year. Anyone replacing Big Sam would not have an easy job changing the club's philosophy and keeping them in the Premier League.

14. Leicester City - One of the 3 new teams in the league this year, Leicester City is an unknown quantity. They haven't spent money on proven players this summer, and could struggle to stay up. The last two Championship winners, Reading and Cardiff, have gone straight back down the following year. Leicester will want to reverse that trend, and I think they will. The Foxes took 102 points last year. 2 other teams have ever eclipsed the 100 point mark in the Championship's history: 05-06 Reading and 09-10 Newcastle. Both clubs enjoyed long stays in the Premier League while relying mostly on the players who got them up. I think Leicester could do the same. It won't be easy, Leicester faces Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal, Stoke, and Man U in their first 5 matches. But I think the Foxes will have what it takes to stay in the Premier League.

15. QPR - 'Arry is back! I can't wait to see him give transfer updates from his car window on deadline day. Unlike Leicester and Burnley, QPR is very much a known quantity. They only spent one year in the second division, and rely on lots of players with plenty of top-level experience. And they've followed the safest formula to stay in the EPL: augmenting the team with proven top-level players, both young and old. The additions of Ferdinand, Caulker, Mutch, and Isla should be enough to keep QPR up.

16. Aston Villa - Their owner is actively trying to sell the club but no buyers have emerged. The chief executive quit and no one really knows why. Their manager has done well on a shoestring budget but now has deal with Roy Keane breathing down his neck. Things don't look good behind the scenes at Villa Park. Because the owner is eager to sell the club, very little funds have been made available for Paul Lambert to strengthen the squad. As a result, Aston Villa will need to avoid injuries at all costs this year, because their squad is extremely weak. The first 11, when Benteke, Weimann, Delph, and Vlaar are fit, is very good. But the replacements aren't. Villa could really struggle to stay up if the injuries pile up.

17. Hull City - Like Everton and Liverpool, I don't think Hull will be able to cope with the additional load of European play this year. I see them having a season like Swansea did last year - struggling to get away from the relegation zone and finally pulling into safety when they get knocked out of the Europa League. The 12 million pounds made from the sale of Shane Long will need to be reinvested in multiple players. To be fair, Hull has spent well so far this summer. Ince, Snodgrass, and Robertson all look like great prospects for the Tigers. Perhaps Steve Bruce will find a few more players to add the depth Hull will need to compete on 2 fronts. But Bruce will want to avoid his dreaded second-season-syndrome, too. After impressive first seasons at Wigan and Sunderland, he has been sacked in his second season at both clubs. Bruce will hope the third time will be the charm.

18. West Brom - Who hires the managers at West Brom? Time to fire that guy! Pepe Mel barely kept the club up, and he was sacked. Next up: Allan Irvine. Seriously, who is Allan Irvine? A Qualified Insurance Broker of course! (He was also David Moyes's former youth team coach.) Irvine has his work cut out for him. West Brom has no quality strikers and an old back line (somehow made older with the new acquisition of Lescott). I see the Baggies finally getting relegated this season.

19. Sunderland - Unable to bring back Borini and desperately trying to keep hold of Wickham, Sunderland doesn't look like they will be good enough to stay up this term. After miraculously pulling out of the relegation places last year, this version of Sunderland is weaker, less talented and more injury prone. Their two best attackers, Borini and Scocco, are gone. Jack Colback was one of their better players for a few years, and he joined rivals Newcastle. The dependable Korean Ki has been replaced by Jack Rodwell, who misses more games injured than he plays. I honestly don't know what Poyet is doing with the Black Cats. I don't see him in this job at Christmas, and I don't see Sunderland staying in the Premier League.

20. Burnley - This is what I know about Burnley: their best player is a right back who doesn't defend and their manager, Paul Dyche, is nicknamed "the Ginger Mourinho." Their biggest purchase of the summer has been Michael Kightly. I read one Burnley supporter's preview of the season ahead, which proclaimed: "I predicted Burnley would finish mid-table last season, and I won't underestimate Dyche again." I didn't have the author's intended reaction to this assertion. Instead of believing in the "Ginger Mourinho's" ability to overachieve, I'm thinking a squad that was picked to finish mid-table in the Championship a year ago will be completely out of place in the Premier League. Burnley is going right back down, to the disappointment of red-heads everywhere.

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