Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Arsenal Win The FA Cup!

After 48 hours of...dehydration...I'm finally ready to write up a review of Saturday's FA Cup victory at Wembley. My condition had me couch-ridden, so I did have the chance to re-watch the match maybe 5 or 6 times (it was better every time), and I want to start by congratulating Arsene Wenger.

Wenger has managed Arsenal for 18 years, and when he leaves he will likely be the most highly-regarded manager in Arsenal history. It must be a massive relief for Wenger to finally end the club's 9-year trophy drought, as the stress and pressure increased every year without one. Wenger is devoted to our club and it was good to see him finally win a trophy after so many years. For all his faults, Wenger is a likeable man who stands for his convictions, misguided or not. It's enjoyable to see a good person like Wenger enjoy success. Even if I didn't support Arsenal, I'd much rather see Arsene Wenger holding the trophy at the end of the day than the likes of Mourinho or Ferguson.

Wenger's chances of doing so didn't look very good after the first 10 minutes. Hull scored twice, and Kieran Gibbs headed a third off the line as Hull had clearly prepared to attack our zonal marking and they were very dangerous on set pieces.

The first turning point in the match came from the excellent Santi Cazorla. Cazorla and Podolski lined up to take the free kick, and I must admit I thought Podolski was going to take it. He measured his steps like he was about to smash it into McGregor's near post. McGregor agreed with me. He shifted to his right and was shocked to see Cazorla's smash flying in on his left. It was an excellent goal, and a massive relief for Arsenal. Only one goal down, Arsenal had no need to rush for the equalizer.

The remainder of the first half didn't produce much, however. Arsenal looked clueless against Hull's 3 center backs, constantly trying to build through an outnumbered Giroud in the the middle, and Giroud failed to hold the ball up with any effectiveness. Ozil, Podolski, and Ramsey failed to have any real impact in the attacking third.

Hull didn't produce much of an attacking threat after their barnstorming first 10 minutes, but Stephen Quinn, Curtis Davies, Alex Bruce, and Matty Fryatt did very well to defend physically and hold the ball up well when they did have it. Hull still looked dangerous on set pieces and strong defensively. I'll be the first to admit that I was very pessimistic about our chances of winning at the break. I thought we looked doomed.

Everything changed in the second half. Wenger changed the formation to a 4-4-2 and brought on Yaya Sanogo. Make the case all you want that a club the size of Arsenal should have a better backup striker than Sanogo (I certainly have), but the raw Frenchman stood up to Hull's physicality and didn't let Hull's 3 center backs swarm Giroud like they had in the first half. Sanogo's introduction freed up Giroud considerably, and he grew in to the game as it went on. As did Ramsey.

But don't forget the changes Hull made as well. An exhausted Quinn subbed out for Sone Aluko. An injured Bruce was forced off. Paul McShane replaced him and James Chester shifted centrally. All of a sudden Hull's defense was opening up, and they couldn't keep the ball when they had it. It quickly looked like Arsenal's equalizer was imminent.

Referee Lee Probert was miserable. Arsenal had 4 penalties denied when Giroud was clothes-lined by Huddlestone, Livermore handballed Sanogo's shot, and Cazorla was taken down in the box twice. But luckily, Probert did make one crucial mistake in our favor. When Sanogo's flick went into the side-netting, Probert called a corner kick. The result: a Koscielny equalizer.

Ramsey won man of the match, but for me, that award should have gone to Koscielny. He was an absolute warrior. Koscielny was everywhere, making countless tackles, and like he so often does, scoring a vital goal when Arsenal most needed it. Always the unsung hero, Koscielny is one of the best defenders in the world.

A shocking Gibbs miss could have ended the game in regulation, and a Giroud header that went off the crossbar could have given Arsenal the lead early in extra time, but neither came to fruition. Wenger subbed Rosicky and Wilshere in for Ozil and Cazorla to play on the wings of his 4-4-2 in the 105th minute, and the fresh legs pushed the advantage further in Arsenal's favor.

Wilshere tried to play in Sanogo and the resulting tackle fell to Giroud, who instinctively back-heeled the ball into the path of Ramsey. Ramsey's first-time shot was a beauty. His great technique fired the ball into the near post in the 108th minute to take the lead.

Then came the longest 12 minutes ever. Sanogo and Giroud spurned some great chances to score. Mertesacker inexplicably slipped. Aluko rushed onto the ball and dribbled past Fabianski, who bizarrely had rushed 40 yards out from his goal with his team in the lead and just 5 minutes to go. Thankfully Aluko's shot trickled wide. Got to hand it to Arsenal. We always make it interesting.

Rosicky might have scored in the final minutes but it didn't matter. Arsenal won 3-2.

Did we look overawed by the occasion and extremely complacent in the first 10 minutes? Yes. Were we stunningly poor in the first half despite being clear favorites? Yes. Did we seem to be completely unprepared to create chances against Hull's defensive formation? Yes. Was it luck that we got 4 home draws in the Cup (something that should statistically happen once every 100 years)? Yes.

But did we win? YES.

And is the trophy drought over? YES!

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

EPL Season Review: 2. Liverpool

After reviewing the Champions' season yesterday, I'll move down the table to #2: Liverpool FC.

Manager

Brendan Rogers was hired 2 years ago to take over for club legend Kenny Daglish. His first season was underwhelming because he started extremely slow. On November 30th 2012, Liverpool sat 12th in the table, with just 16 points from 14 matches.

Philippe Coutinho and Daniel Sturridge were bought in January and Liverpool's form did improve. Liverpool took 45 points from their next 24 matches, finishing 7th.

Even though they played better in the second half of last season, Liverpool was just the 6th best team in the league during the final 24 matches, behind Man United (56 pts), Arsenal (52), Tottenham (49), Chelsea (49), and Man City (46). They still finished 12 points out of the European places. It was fair to think the Reds still had a lot of work to do to step up into the Champions League.

But Rogers and the club's new owner, John Henry, insisted they aimed to do exactly that. When Arsenal publicly attempted to sign Luis Suarez, Liverpool refused to sell even when Arsenal reportedly met his release clause--risking litigation on Suarez's end to see their ambitions fulfilled. It worked.

Liverpool strengthened with several new players and enjoyed a resurgence to put together a genuine title challenge until the last few weeks of the season. After beating Man City 3-2 at Anfield in dramatic fashion with just 4 matches left to play, Liverpool was 7 points clear of Man City, and even though City had 2 games in hand, Liverpool only needed to win their remaining 4 matches to secure their first ever EPL title.

They only won 2.

New Additions

Like City, Liverpool strengthened with more than just 2 or 3 players, suggesting that major investment in the squad does not have negative effects on team chemistry. Liverpool added 7 players in the summer, 6 of whom played this year.

Simon Mignolet was bought from Sunderland and played well in goal for Liverpool this year. He started all 38 EPL matches and averaged nearly 3 saves per match. Liverpool did concede a lot of goals (50, the 8th best record in the league) but that total would almost certainly have been worse if Pepe Reina or Brad Jones had been in goal. Mignolet was a very good signing.

Mamadou Sakho was bought from PSG and rotated with the oft-injured Daniel Agger in defense. Sakho was inconsistent this season, but he made 17 starts this year, and that experience will help him adjust to the English style of play. A young player, its fair to expect Sakho to be a better, more consistent player next year.

Kolo Toure was also bought from Man City to reinforce the Liverpool defense. Toure brought experience and leadership to a team that needed it, and he started 15 matches this season. With that being said, considering how poor Liverpool's defensive record was this season, it's hard to argue that the signing of Toure (or Sakho for that matter) was a successful signing this year.

Aly Cissokho was loaned in from Lyon to provide competition and cover for Jose Enrique at left back. Cissokho was normally featured as a left wing back in a 5-3-2 formation early in the year, but his role diminished in the second half of the season as Rogers changed his tactics to a more consistent back 4 and John Flanagan was a mainstay in Cissokho's position. Cissokho played in 15 matches, 12 as a starter, this year.

Victor Moses was loaned in from Chelsea. Moses had played for Rogers when Rogers managed the Chelsea U21s. Moses must have thought moving to Liverpool would get him more playing time than if he had stayed at the Blues. In reality, he was nothing more than cover for the first team. Moses only made 6 starts, but he did make 13 substitute appearances. In all, he scored just 1 goal and assisted 4 this year. An underwhelming contribution from a player who was at his best for Wigan under Roberto Martinez a few years ago.

Iago Aspas flopped. The Spaniard started matches early in the year, but failed to convince. In 5 starts and 9 substitute appearances, Aspas scored no goals, and only assisted 1. He fell out of favor with Rogers quickly, only playing in 4 matches (all as a substitute) after December.

Tiago Ilori is a young defender who was bought from Sporting Lisbon. He did not make a single Premier League appearance this year.

In summary, only Mignolet played a major role for Liverpool this year, but the 7 new players Rogers brought in provided competition for places and kept the first team players working hard to keep their place. Rogers can hardly be seen as a wizard in the transfer market, in fact most of these players did not work out, but it would be difficult to argue that reinforcing the squad disrupted Liverpool's team chemistry and hurt their chances at all this season.

Key Players

Luis Suarez won the PFA Player of the Year award. He led the league in goals with 31, assisted 12, and started every EPL match after sitting out the first 5 suspended. He matured, developed into a leader, and was only booked 6 times all season. Suarez was never sent off. Suarez is the best striker in the Premier League, and one of the best strikers in the world.

Steven Gerrard took on a deeper defensive midfield role and he pulled the strings for Liverpool this season. His set piece delivery was very strong, and the experienced Liverpool captain scored 13 goals and assisted 13 more, landing a spot on the PFA Team of the Season. But Gerrard was just as vital to the club's resurgence as he was in their ultimate collapse. His slip against Chelsea in the final weeks of the season proved to be too much for the team to overcome. He will need to rebound quickly as the veteran will captain England at the World Cup this summer.

Jordan Henderson was an extremely important player for Liverpool this year. Raheem Sterling was outstanding this spring, and deservedly received a lot of praise, but Henderson's strength and mobility helped him form a great partnership with Gerrard in midfield. Henderson's athleticism complimented Gerrard's technical ability very well, but his reckless tackle in stoppage time in their victory over Man City suspended him for 3 of Liverpool's final 4 matches. Those results: a 3-2 win at relegated Norwich, the 2-nil loss to Chelsea at Anfield, and the 3-3 draw at Crystal Palace. The only three matches Henderson failed to play, Henderson scored 4 goals and assisted 7 more in 35 starts. But his stupid tackle at the end of the City match might have been just as catastrophic as Gerrard's slip.

Looking Ahead

Liverpool has qualified for the Champions League, and therefore will need to rotate more than they did this season. That means they'll need to strengthen once again. The defense, in particular, needs new reinforcements. Rogers will now face the additional challenge of juggling multiple competitions, and with many of the team's key players expected to feature at this summer's World Cup, it seems unlikely that Liverpool will avoid injuries to key players like they have this year. If Rogers can keep his team in the top 4 and return them to the Champions League next season, that will be viewed as a success.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

EPL Season Review: 1. Manchester City

The Premier League season ended this weekend without much suspense. There were no relegation battles, nobody cares about the Europa League, and Man City only needed a draw to win their second championship in 3 years.

This is the first of a 4-piece series that will take place over the summer, reviewing each Champions league club's campaign.

1. Manchester City

Manager

Roberto Mancini was sacked last summer to make room for the more diplomatic (and less costly) Manuel Pellegrini from Malaga. Pellegrini won many trophies while managing in South America in the late 90s and early 2000s, but this is his first major trophy in 10 years of managing in Europe. He won the Capital One Cup in February, but the Premier League Title is undoubtedly the most impressive achievement on Pellegrini's CV.

Pellegrini previously led the "Yellow Submarine" at Villarreal (who famously lost to a Jens Lehmann penalty save in the 2004/05 Champions League semifinal) and a spent brief season at Real Madrid before being replaced by Jose Mourinho. Beating Mourinho to the title must be particularly sweet for Pellegrini this year, but the fact is Mourinho did City a massive favor on the way.

I'll discuss Chelsea's crucial win at Anfield later in the week, but City's destiny was out of their hands until Mourinho's Chelsea beat the league-leading Reds in the 35th week of the season.

It was anticipated that Pellegrini would play his favored 4-2-3-1 at City this year, but he also utilized a 4-4-2 frequently. His tactics were flexible, and he favored the more attacking approach when he expected his opponent to sit deep and prioritize defense.

The results speak for themselves. Pellegrini's City had the best goal difference in the league (+65). They scored the most goals (102) and conceded the second-least (37). Mancini's final team conceded less goals (34) but crucially only scored 66. City's increased firepower had a lot to do with Pellegrini's attacking philosophy, but also was helped by a few crucial new additions (more on them below).

While their total point total (86) would not have beaten Man United last year, they conceded 6 less goals and scored 16 more than last year's champions, leading to far superior goal differential. It's fair to argue that City was more dominant than United was last season.

New Additions

Pellegrini bought 5 new players in the summer, nearly all in midfield and attack. Some have argued that adding more than 2 or 3 players in any one window disrupts team chemistry, but Pellegrini was able to make his new additions fit into the City team seamlessly.

Fernandinho was bought from Shaktar Donetsk and often paired with Yaya Toure in central midfield. The Brazilian made 33 EPL appearances this season, scoring 5 goals and assisting 3 more. His production was nice, considering his role. Fernandinho was the team's most defensive midfielder in the majority of his appearances, and his defensive discipline allowed Toure the freedom to attack. He is a quick, mobile midfielder who is strong in the tackle (if not in the air) and proved to be a great complement to the Ivorian superstar. Toure put together one of the best seasons by a midfielder in Premier League history (more on that below) and a large part of that was his partnership with Fernandinho.

Martin Demichelis had worked Pellegrini first at River Plate in Argentina, and then again at Malaga. He is a defender Pellegrini trusts, and even though his adaptation to English football was a little rocky at the start, Demichelis's leadership and communication from the back was vital for City at the "business end" of the season. Demichelis featured prominently in the club's last 5 matches--all victories--in which the club only conceded 3 goals. In the end he played 27 EPL matches and scored 2 goals.

Alvaro Negredo was bought from Sevilla to play up front. He was very impressive early in the season, but was resigned to a substitute role later in the year as Edin Dzeko found some good form. In the end, Negredo made 21 starts and 11 appearances as a substitute, scoring 9 goals and assisting 3 more.

Jesus Navas was also bought from Sevilla. The winger rotated with James Milner on the right and overcame a history of homesickness to put together a strong season in his first year in England. Navas played in 30 matches, 18 as a starter, scored 4 goals (some of them spectacular), and assisted 7 more. One would suspect his production will only improve as he adapts to the English style of play.

Stevan Jovetic was bought from Fiorentina. The young Montenegran striker has been tipped as a future star, but he battled several injuries and faced a large amount of competition for places, and therefore didn't put together an impressive season. Jovetic only started one EPL match, although he did appear as a substitute 11 times. He scored 3 goals in his first season in the Premier League.

Key Players

Yaya Toure was absolutely outstanding this year. First on Pellegrini's teamsheet, the Ivorian started 35 matches and scored a ludicrous 20 EPL goals from 64 total shots. He assisted 9 more, tied with David Silva for the most on the team. At this point, Toure has a genuine argument that he is the best midfielder in the world.

Pablo Zabaleta was a rock in the City defense this year, and Pellegrini relied on him heavily. Like Toure, Zabaleta played in 35 EPL matches (one as a substitute). Zabaleta has become the best right back in the Premier League, and arguably the best in the world at his position.

Samir Nasri started 29 matches and appeared as a substitute 5 times. After a frustrating season under Mancini, as the Italian often publicly criticized and scapegoated Nasri for his team's lack of offensive firepower, the Frenchman contributed with 7 goals and 7 assists this season. Nasri broke the deadlock with a great goal in the title-clinching victory over West Ham on the final day.

Looking Ahead

I looked ahead to City's upcoming problems with Financial Fair Play last week. In the article you'll see why I think it will be very hard for City to strengthen again in the summer.

However, if City can keep the core of this team in tact, they will still likely be the favorites next year. The reality is that City had to cope without three of their best players (Vincent Kompany, David Silva, and Sergio Aguero) for stretches of the season due to injuries. That they were still so dominant is a scary prospect for the rest of the league. City could struggle in the Champions League due to the lack of depth afforded to them under UEFA's sanctions, but they will most likely still be the favorites to repeat and win a third Premier League title in 4 years.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

How Financial Fair Play Could Impact Next Season

Yesterday it was reported that Manchester City and PSG face the stiffest penalties under UEFA's new Financial Fair Play (FFP) legislation.

You can read about City's penalty here. City faces a 50 million pound fine over the next three seasons, a restriction on players available in European competition to 21 players, and a cap on wages for their Champions League squad which is no higher than it is currently.

PSG's penalties are worse. You can read them here. PSG faces the 50 million pound fine, as well as the squad restrictions, but they also will reportedly have to sell players before they are allowed to buy any new ones, the net spend of the window will have to be positive. And perhaps most bizarrely, PSG will only be allowed to reinvest whatever they earn in sales on one player, rather than buying multiple players at lower fees.

Both penalties are not official yet, and both clubs are reportedly scrambling to appeal the decisions. But if the sanctions are upheld, it could severely hurt both clubs next season, and put some talented players up for sale on the transfer market.

What isn't clear is whether PSG would be forbidden from adding free transfers under UEFA's "one transfer" requirement. My guess is they won't be, because UEFA will still need to adhere to the Bosman ruling. PSG is reportedly interested in both Patrice Evra and Bacary Sagna (whom City reportedly want as well). Both players' contracts are expiring this summer. My guess is PSG could buy one player for a fee but still add free transfers such as Sagna and/or Evra without violating the "one transfer" requirement, so they would still be able to buy one other player for a fee under UEFA's sanctions.

Sagna and Evra would surely be on higher wages than the likes of Maxwell and Gregory van der Wiel, however. So what about the wage cap, you ask? It is a fair point that Sagna and/or Evra's wages likely wouldn't be cheap. But the 21-player restriction actually will help both PSG and City stay under the cap. Both clubs registered 24 players in their A squads for this year's competition, so both clubs will effectively get to move 3 players off the books (for UEFA purposes) and both should easily be able to comply with the wage cap.

It is also important to notice that the wage restriction is only on the squad submitted to UEFA for the Champions League. Both clubs will not face similar restrictions in their domestic leagues. But convincing players to stay when they will not be able to play in the Champions League could be a real problem because UEFA will not relax their "home-grown" requirement.

If you've ever played Football Manager, you know all about the home-grown requirement. A total of 8 players must have come up through a club's domestic league, and 4 of those 8 must have come from that club's academy. If a club is unable to fulfill the home-grown requirement, they are forced to leave a spot in the squad open for every missing player. That's the case with both PSG and City right now, as both clubs only registered 24 players for this year's competition because they didn't have enough home-grown players.

I'll analyze each club's position right now, and how their respective teams could change next season, starting with a list of each club's registered players, with the home-grown players listed 1st (players trained at the club are in bold and in all caps, while players trained at another club in the same nation in lower case):

PSG

1. GK - Nicolas Douchez (hg)
2. GK - MIKE MAIGNAN (HG)
3. CB - Zoumana Camara (hg)
4. LB - Lucas Digne (hg)
5. RB - Christophe Jallet (hg)
6. CM - Yohan Cabaye (hg)
7. W - Jeremy Menez (hg)
8. CM - Blaise Matuidi (hg)
9. CM - ADRIEN RABIOT (HG)
10. ST - HERVIN ONGENDA (HG)
11. GK - Salvatore Sirigu
12. CB - Thiago Silva
13. CB - Marquinhos
14. CB - Alex
15. LB - Maxwell
16. RB - Gregory van der Wiel
17. CB - Kalifa Traore
18. CM - Thiago Motta
19. CM - Marco Verratti
20. W/CF - Javier Pastore
21. W - Lucas Moura
22. ST - Edinson Cavani
23. ST/CF - Zlatan Ibrahimovic
24. W/ST - Ezequiel Lavezzi

Crucially, PSG has just 3 players registered who have been at the club for at least 3 years before their 21st birthday. Maignan is the third choice keeper. Rabiot is behind Cabaye, Matuidi, Verratti, and Thiago Motta in the midfield pecking order. And Ongenda is 3rd-or-4th-choice striker behind Ibrahimovic, Cavani, and probably also Lavezzi. Rabiot played in 6 Champions League matches this year (4 as a substitute). Ongenda and Maignan combined to play in just 1.

These players will all most likely need to play a lot more next year, even if they stay in reserve roles. 21 players is a very small squad. Both PSG and City will only be able to register 10 backups to the first 11. That means they will most likely only register 2 goalkeepers and 3 center halves in order to keep adequate depth at other positions. Therefore Maignan will most likely be their reserve goalkeeper in European matches, Rabiot will become the 3rd-or-4th-choice central midfielder, and Ongenda will be a reserve striker.

PSG has many players who came up at other French clubs, but because they only could register three from PSG, the club was forced to leave one spot open. That leaves them two options: PSG can cut 4 players from their current squad, leaving them with just 20, or bring in a 4th player who came up at PSG in order to cut only 3. PSG does have 2 players on loan that might be brought back in order to complete a 21-man squad next season.

Clement Chantome is currently on loan at Toulouse. He has played 162 games for PSG in his career, and is a player who has been rumored to be an Arsenal transfer target in the past. Chantome was disillusioned with a lack of matches after PSG's Qatari owners financed the purchases of many players in Chantome's favored central midfield role, although he can cover as a defender as well. Whilst on loan, the club brought in further competition with the purchase of Cabaye. If PSG wants to bring Chantome back into the fold, they may need to sell at least 2 central midfielders to keep him happy. The most likely to go? In my opinion, Thiago Motta and Blaise Matuidi. Verratti has too much potential and Cabaye was only just bought in January.

Alternatively, Jean-Christophe Bahebeck is a 21 year old winger who has played 13 matches on loan at Valenciennes this season after playing more for Troyes last year, and he could be the fourth homegrown player in next year's team if PSG wants to register the maximum of 21 players. Still, Bahebeck would face serious competition for his place, as PSG already has Lavezzi, Moura, Menez, and Pastore who play on the wing. Registering Bahebeck as a 5th winger would make PSG sacrifice depth at other positions. Therefore if Bahebeck is the answer, at least one of the above wingers would need to be sold to make room.

Another option would be adding a player who previously trained in PSG's youth academy, and has since moved away. These players would fit that category:

Sylvain Distin (Everton), Lorik Cana (Lazio), Boukary Drame (Chievo), Sol Bamba (Trabzonspor), Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom), David N'Gog (Swansea), Franck Dja Djedje (Sarpsborg), and Mamadou Sakho (Liverpool).

Of these options, I think Distin, Cana, or Sakho would be the most likely to return. PSG could sell Camara or Alex to make room. But it may be hard for PSG to get any of the above three players to agree to come back and sit behind Thiago Silva and Marquinhos.

So far the most noise is being made around PSG selling Edinson Cavani.  Cavani's transfer fee would likely be in excess of 40 million pounds; he was bought for 50 million from Napoli just last summer. The sale of Cavani could do a lot to balance PSG's books for future compliance with FFP restrictions, and his pricetag would be hefty enough to fund the acquisition of basically whatever single player they wish to add. PSG would be allowed to reinvest the Cavani money in a cheaper striker to replace him, and keep the majority of their title-winning team in tact. This is a possibility, but I think it's more likely for PSG to sell a defender, midfielder, or winger due to the home-grown requirement. The Cavani sale might be on, but not without also selling someone who plays a different position.

In summary, PSG has a real problem here. While the Cavani speculation has been their most widely reported plan (possibly because it generates the most hits), it would seem to be the dumbest option available to the French club, because they have no credible home-grown replacements at forward. Chantome is probably the most sensible option as the 4th home-grown player, and therefore I think Thiago Motta and possibly also Matuidi are the most likely to leave the club this summer. Both would be great additions for the many clubs in the world that are on the market for holding midfielders.

PSG could drop Traore, Camara, Matuidi, and Thiago Motta from their UEFA squad and bring back Chantome and still have enough depth to compete for the trophy.

Man City

1. GK - Joe Hart (hg)
2. GK - EIRIK HOLMEN JOHANSEN (HG)
3. RB - MICAH RICHARDS (HG)
4. CB - Joleon Lescott (hg)
5. LB - Gael Clichy (hg)
6. CB - DEDRYCK BOYATA (HG)
7. W - James Milner (hg)
8. CM - Jack Rodwell (hg)
9. GK - Costel Pantilimon
10. CB - Vincent Kompany
11. RB - Pablo Zabaleta
12. LB - Aleksandar Kolarov
13. CB - Martin Demichelis
14. CB - Matija Nastasic
15. W - Samir Nasri
16. CM - Javi Garcia
17. W - Jesus Navas
18. W - David Silva
19. CM - Fernandinho
20. CM - Yaya Toure
21. ST - Alvaro Negredo
22. ST - Edin Dzeko
23. ST - Sergio Aguero
24. ST - Stevan Jovetic

Hart was bought from Shrewsbury at age 19, meaning he only trained at City for 2 years before his 21st birthday. Therefore City has only 3 true home-grown players, and they, like PSG, had to leave a spot open in order to compensate.

Johansen is the 3rd choice keeper, Boyata the 5th choice center half, and Richards only played 3 Champions League matches this year.

Lescott is out of contract in the summer and is reportedly not going to stay at City, meaning City will not be able to sacrifice any of their other England-based home-grown players (Hart, Clichy, Milner, or the injury-prone Rodwell) without buying other England-based players to replace them.

It is very difficult to see how City will be able to comply with the squad restrictions and still field a deep, competitive team for the Champions League next season. Johansen could be the backup keeper, and Richards could be the backup right back, but Nastasic or Demichelis may need to be sacrificed in order to make room for Boyata in the team as the only reserve center half.

Furthermore, there is no on-loan player like Chantome would could add proven, quality depth and versatility as a home-grown player. Center half Karim Rekik has played in 21 matches on loan at PSV this year - but City already has an abundance of center halves. John Guidetti is a striker currently on loan at Stoke who has only played 6 matches - and City already has 4 strikers registered. Emir Huws is a midfielder who has played well in 17 appearances for Birmingham City this spring - and he'd be my best guess as the 4th home-grown player in City's squad for next season.

City could register Huws and Rodwell as backups to Toure and Fernandinho in central midfield, meaning Javi Garcia would likely be on his way out the door. They could keep all 4 strikers registered if they sacrificed either Nastasic or Demichelis at center half and left Boyata as the only backup.

The prospect of keeping Boyata as the lone backup to Kompany and Nastasic/Demichelis would make City vulnerable to suspensions and injuries at such a crucial position. Richards can play there, but what if Zabaleta and one of the center halves are out simultaneously? Yaya Toure has played at the back for Barcelona in the past, and Rodwell could possibly play there. Alternatively, City could sacrifice Jovetic, their 4th striker, to keep a more reliable 3rd center half in the team.

The end result would be dropping Pantilimon, Lescott, one of Nastasic/Demichelis/Jovetic, and Javi Garcia from the UEFA squad while registering Huws as the 21st player.

If City wants to strengthen with new signings this summer, they will be forced to sacrifice others from the Champions League squad in order to do so. This means their reported interest in Falcao would almost certainly have to be matched with the sale of at least one striker, or their interest in Bayern's Javi Martinez would likely need to be matched with the sale of another midfielder on top of Garcia (but not Rodwell). Their reported interest Bacary Sagna would seem to make no sense whatsoever. Zabaleta is a superior player, while his deputy Richards has vital home-grown status and can't leave the club (sorry, Brendan Rogers).

Basically, I don't see how City can truly strengthen if the current sanctions are upheld. This is great news to everyone else in the Premier League, but only time will tell if the sanctions will remain this harsh.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Liverpool Collapse / Arsenal in for Muller?

Yesterday Liverpool needed a win at Crystal Palace to keep their title hopes alive. The Reds went 3-0 up in the first 60 minutes and pushed for more goals, hoping to cut into Man City's goal differential advantage.

When Damien Delaney scored to make the score 3-1, Liverpool's hubris was exposed. The Reds pushed even higher to restore a 3 goal winning margin. Yannick Bolasie (formerly of Plymouth Argyle) burned past England right back Glen Johnson and found Dwight Gayle (the former Peterborough player) to make it 3-2. Minutes later, Martin Skrtel inexplicably was caught in no man's land as Glenn Murray (formerly of Rochdale) chested the ball into the path of Gayle for the equalizer. In less than 10 minutes, not only had Liverpool's precious margin of victory disintegrated, they crucially lost the 3 points.

Credit to Crystal Palace. What Tony Pulis has done with this team is nothing short of miraculous. Before Pulis was hired, Palace looked doomed to relegation. But their form this spring has been spectacular, they've beaten both Liverpool and Chelsea at home and Everton away, all with players who have spent a majority of their careers in the lower divisions.

I was not a fan of Pulis's at Stoke, but he has this Palace team playing a more entertaining style, believe it or not. At Stoke, Pulis won games with long throws, physicality, and conservative defending. Palace defends deep and plays physically, but they also have been ruthless on the counter this spring. Bolasie and Jason Puncheon have been very good on the wings. Mile Jedinak has had a great season in central midfield. Joe Ledley and Scott Dann were inspired Pulis January signings. Julian Speroni, who is out of contract this summer, has been great in goal.

But make no mistake, Palace was safe, and they had nothing to play for yesterday. It showed for 75 minutes. And Liverpool bottled it. All to try to better their goal difference. On the 2nd and 3rd goals, Liverpool's defenders were caught well out of position. There is no excuse for such foolish defending when you have a lead and need the win.

Many have drawn comparisons to Arsenal's 4-4 draw from 4-0 up at St James Park a few years ago. To me, this was a bit different. The goals came over a 40 minute period after Arsenal was down to 10 men and Phil Dowd made a number of controversial decisions to help the home team. I was actually reminded of two different matches in Arsenal history.

First was the 3-2 loss to Wigan in 2010. While Arsenal's title chances weren't nearly as strong in that match, there still was a slight chance of winning the title, and it completely faded away with 3 goals in 10 minutes. A Fabianski error and some very poor defending from the likes of Sylvester led to the loss after leading 2-0 after 80 minutes.

The other was the 2-2 draw at St Andrews in 2008 where Clichy foolishly gave away the penalty that killed Arsenal's title bid. I was only reminded of this because Luis Suarez "pulled a Gallas" by weeping uncontrollably on the pitch after the full time whistle.

We've stormed into 4th after it looked to be in jeopardy a month ago. If we win the FA Cup in 2 weeks, this could be the best season in a decade. And on top of that, in the last week we've seen John Terry, Ashley Cole, Steven Gerrard, and Suarez cry. What a great week!

On to other potentially Arsenal-related news, Thomas Muller is reportedly unhappy at Bayern Munich. Links to Man United have been very strong, as Muller is a player who got his promotion to first team football under Louis Van Gaal. But given the logjam of strikers United have already (and their rumored pursuit of Cavani), it's hard to see how Muller will get more time on the pitch at United than he does at Bayern right now. Muller won't get paid as much as Rooney, and he isn't better than van Persie. Not yet anyway.

Muller is versatile. He can play as a second striker or on the wings. But United already have Mata, Kagawa, and Rooney who play in these positions behind Van Persie. It would surely make more sense for them to add a quicker player on the wing to add something different to their attack. Muller would face competition from numerous similar players for playing time.

Arsenal would seem to be a much more attractive option. Muller would almost surely slot in as the first choice striker immediately. He's a much more clinical striker than Giroud but his versatility means he could slot in to a different position and play with Giroud if necessary.

 Muller is a player who I've rated very highly since I first saw him win the Golden Boot for Germany at the 2010 World Cup at the age of 20. Bayern's additions of Gotze and Lewandowski have marginalized his importance for the Bavarian giants, and if he wants to leave to play first team football, we would seem to be a genuine option.

He would be an upgrade on Giroud up front, we would have Champions League football to offer, and our contingent of Germans could help Muller settle in quickly. We also have Andries Jonker, Van Gaal's former number 2 at Bayern.

Jonker, who will be Arsenal's new director of youth development next season, was instrumental in the development and eventual promotion of Alaba, Badstuber, and Muller in his time at Bayern Munich. He's a very highly rated coach who the Bayern players genuinely loved to play for when he was the interim boss after Van Gaal was sacked. Perhaps a chance to reunite with Jonker, combined with Champions League football and a clearer path to the first team, can persuade Muller to come to North London rather than Old Trafford.

Muller can be the "world class striker" Gooners are crying out for. Sign him up, Arsene!