You can read about City's penalty here. City faces a 50 million pound fine over the next three seasons, a restriction on players available in European competition to 21 players, and a cap on wages for their Champions League squad which is no higher than it is currently.
PSG's penalties are worse. You can read them here. PSG faces the 50 million pound fine, as well as the squad restrictions, but they also will reportedly have to sell players before they are allowed to buy any new ones, the net spend of the window will have to be positive. And perhaps most bizarrely, PSG will only be allowed to reinvest whatever they earn in sales on one player, rather than buying multiple players at lower fees.
Both penalties are not official yet, and both clubs are reportedly scrambling to appeal the decisions. But if the sanctions are upheld, it could severely hurt both clubs next season, and put some talented players up for sale on the transfer market.
What isn't clear is whether PSG would be forbidden from adding free transfers under UEFA's "one transfer" requirement. My guess is they won't be, because UEFA will still need to adhere to the Bosman ruling. PSG is reportedly interested in both Patrice Evra and Bacary Sagna (whom City reportedly want as well). Both players' contracts are expiring this summer. My guess is PSG could buy one player for a fee but still add free transfers such as Sagna and/or Evra without violating the "one transfer" requirement, so they would still be able to buy one other player for a fee under UEFA's sanctions.
Sagna and Evra would surely be on higher wages than the likes of Maxwell and Gregory van der Wiel, however. So what about the wage cap, you ask? It is a fair point that Sagna and/or Evra's wages likely wouldn't be cheap. But the 21-player restriction actually will help both PSG and City stay under the cap. Both clubs registered 24 players in their A squads for this year's competition, so both clubs will effectively get to move 3 players off the books (for UEFA purposes) and both should easily be able to comply with the wage cap.
It is also important to notice that the wage restriction is only on the squad submitted to UEFA for the Champions League. Both clubs will not face similar restrictions in their domestic leagues. But convincing players to stay when they will not be able to play in the Champions League could be a real problem because UEFA will not relax their "home-grown" requirement.
If you've ever played Football Manager, you know all about the home-grown requirement. A total of 8 players must have come up through a club's domestic league, and 4 of those 8 must have come from that club's academy. If a club is unable to fulfill the home-grown requirement, they are forced to leave a spot in the squad open for every missing player. That's the case with both PSG and City right now, as both clubs only registered 24 players for this year's competition because they didn't have enough home-grown players.
I'll analyze each club's position right now, and how their respective teams could change next season, starting with a list of each club's registered players, with the home-grown players listed 1st (players trained at the club are in bold and in all caps, while players trained at another club in the same nation in lower case):
PSG
1. GK - Nicolas Douchez (hg)
2. GK - MIKE MAIGNAN (HG)
3. CB - Zoumana Camara (hg)
4. LB - Lucas Digne (hg)
5. RB - Christophe Jallet (hg)
6. CM - Yohan Cabaye (hg)
7. W - Jeremy Menez (hg)
8. CM - Blaise Matuidi (hg)
9. CM - ADRIEN RABIOT (HG)
10. ST - HERVIN ONGENDA (HG)
11. GK - Salvatore Sirigu
12. CB - Thiago Silva
13. CB - Marquinhos
14. CB - Alex
15. LB - Maxwell
16. RB - Gregory van der Wiel
17. CB - Kalifa Traore
18. CM - Thiago Motta
19. CM - Marco Verratti
20. W/CF - Javier Pastore
21. W - Lucas Moura
22. ST - Edinson Cavani
23. ST/CF - Zlatan Ibrahimovic
24. W/ST - Ezequiel Lavezzi
Crucially, PSG has just 3 players registered who have been at the club for at least 3 years before their 21st birthday. Maignan is the third choice keeper. Rabiot is behind Cabaye, Matuidi, Verratti, and Thiago Motta in the midfield pecking order. And Ongenda is 3rd-or-4th-choice striker behind Ibrahimovic, Cavani, and probably also Lavezzi. Rabiot played in 6 Champions League matches this year (4 as a substitute). Ongenda and Maignan combined to play in just 1.
These players will all most likely need to play a lot more next year, even if they stay in reserve roles. 21 players is a very small squad. Both PSG and City will only be able to register 10 backups to the first 11. That means they will most likely only register 2 goalkeepers and 3 center halves in order to keep adequate depth at other positions. Therefore Maignan will most likely be their reserve goalkeeper in European matches, Rabiot will become the 3rd-or-4th-choice central midfielder, and Ongenda will be a reserve striker.
PSG has many players who came up at other French clubs, but because they only could register three from PSG, the club was forced to leave one spot open. That leaves them two options: PSG can cut 4 players from their current squad, leaving them with just 20, or bring in a 4th player who came up at PSG in order to cut only 3. PSG does have 2 players on loan that might be brought back in order to complete a 21-man squad next season.
Clement Chantome is currently on loan at Toulouse. He has played 162 games for PSG in his career, and is a player who has been rumored to be an Arsenal transfer target in the past. Chantome was disillusioned with a lack of matches after PSG's Qatari owners financed the purchases of many players in Chantome's favored central midfield role, although he can cover as a defender as well. Whilst on loan, the club brought in further competition with the purchase of Cabaye. If PSG wants to bring Chantome back into the fold, they may need to sell at least 2 central midfielders to keep him happy. The most likely to go? In my opinion, Thiago Motta and Blaise Matuidi. Verratti has too much potential and Cabaye was only just bought in January.
Alternatively, Jean-Christophe Bahebeck is a 21 year old winger who has played 13 matches on loan at Valenciennes this season after playing more for Troyes last year, and he could be the fourth homegrown player in next year's team if PSG wants to register the maximum of 21 players. Still, Bahebeck would face serious competition for his place, as PSG already has Lavezzi, Moura, Menez, and Pastore who play on the wing. Registering Bahebeck as a 5th winger would make PSG sacrifice depth at other positions. Therefore if Bahebeck is the answer, at least one of the above wingers would need to be sold to make room.
Another option would be adding a player who previously trained in PSG's youth academy, and has since moved away. These players would fit that category:
Sylvain Distin (Everton), Lorik Cana (Lazio), Boukary Drame (Chievo), Sol Bamba (Trabzonspor), Youssouf Mulumbu (West Brom), David N'Gog (Swansea), Franck Dja Djedje (Sarpsborg), and Mamadou Sakho (Liverpool).
Of these options, I think Distin, Cana, or Sakho would be the most likely to return. PSG could sell Camara or Alex to make room. But it may be hard for PSG to get any of the above three players to agree to come back and sit behind Thiago Silva and Marquinhos.
So far the most noise is being made around PSG selling Edinson Cavani. Cavani's transfer fee would likely be in excess of 40 million pounds; he was bought for 50 million from Napoli just last summer. The sale of Cavani could do a lot to balance PSG's books for future compliance with FFP restrictions, and his pricetag would be hefty enough to fund the acquisition of basically whatever single player they wish to add. PSG would be allowed to reinvest the Cavani money in a cheaper striker to replace him, and keep the majority of their title-winning team in tact. This is a possibility, but I think it's more likely for PSG to sell a defender, midfielder, or winger due to the home-grown requirement. The Cavani sale might be on, but not without also selling someone who plays a different position.
PSG could drop Traore, Camara, Matuidi, and Thiago Motta from their UEFA squad and bring back Chantome and still have enough depth to compete for the trophy.
Man City
1. GK - Joe Hart (hg)
2. GK - EIRIK HOLMEN JOHANSEN (HG)
3. RB - MICAH RICHARDS (HG)
4. CB - Joleon Lescott (hg)
5. LB - Gael Clichy (hg)
6. CB - DEDRYCK BOYATA (HG)
7. W - James Milner (hg)
8. CM - Jack Rodwell (hg)
9. GK - Costel Pantilimon
10. CB - Vincent Kompany
11. RB - Pablo Zabaleta
12. LB - Aleksandar Kolarov
13. CB - Martin Demichelis
14. CB - Matija Nastasic
15. W - Samir Nasri
16. CM - Javi Garcia
17. W - Jesus Navas
18. W - David Silva
19. CM - Fernandinho
20. CM - Yaya Toure
21. ST - Alvaro Negredo
22. ST - Edin Dzeko
23. ST - Sergio Aguero
24. ST - Stevan Jovetic
Hart was bought from Shrewsbury at age 19, meaning he only trained at City for 2 years before his 21st birthday. Therefore City has only 3 true home-grown players, and they, like PSG, had to leave a spot open in order to compensate.
Johansen is the 3rd choice keeper, Boyata the 5th choice center half, and Richards only played 3 Champions League matches this year.
Lescott is out of contract in the summer and is reportedly not going to stay at City, meaning City will not be able to sacrifice any of their other England-based home-grown players (Hart, Clichy, Milner, or the injury-prone Rodwell) without buying other England-based players to replace them.
It is very difficult to see how City will be able to comply with the squad restrictions and still field a deep, competitive team for the Champions League next season. Johansen could be the backup keeper, and Richards could be the backup right back, but Nastasic or Demichelis may need to be sacrificed in order to make room for Boyata in the team as the only reserve center half.
Furthermore, there is no on-loan player like Chantome would could add proven, quality depth and versatility as a home-grown player. Center half Karim Rekik has played in 21 matches on loan at PSV this year - but City already has an abundance of center halves. John Guidetti is a striker currently on loan at Stoke who has only played 6 matches - and City already has 4 strikers registered. Emir Huws is a midfielder who has played well in 17 appearances for Birmingham City this spring - and he'd be my best guess as the 4th home-grown player in City's squad for next season.
City could register Huws and Rodwell as backups to Toure and Fernandinho in central midfield, meaning Javi Garcia would likely be on his way out the door. They could keep all 4 strikers registered if they sacrificed either Nastasic or Demichelis at center half and left Boyata as the only backup.
The prospect of keeping Boyata as the lone backup to Kompany and Nastasic/Demichelis would make City vulnerable to suspensions and injuries at such a crucial position. Richards can play there, but what if Zabaleta and one of the center halves are out simultaneously? Yaya Toure has played at the back for Barcelona in the past, and Rodwell could possibly play there. Alternatively, City could sacrifice Jovetic, their 4th striker, to keep a more reliable 3rd center half in the team.
The end result would be dropping Pantilimon, Lescott, one of Nastasic/Demichelis/Jovetic, and Javi Garcia from the UEFA squad while registering Huws as the 21st player.
If City wants to strengthen with new signings this summer, they will be forced to sacrifice others from the Champions League squad in order to do so. This means their reported interest in Falcao would almost certainly have to be matched with the sale of at least one striker, or their interest in Bayern's Javi Martinez would likely need to be matched with the sale of another midfielder on top of Garcia (but not Rodwell). Their reported interest Bacary Sagna would seem to make no sense whatsoever. Zabaleta is a superior player, while his deputy Richards has vital home-grown status and can't leave the club (sorry, Brendan Rogers).
Basically, I don't see how City can truly strengthen if the current sanctions are upheld. This is great news to everyone else in the Premier League, but only time will tell if the sanctions will remain this harsh.
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