Argentina has faced Germany in the quarter-final stage of the last two World Cups. Jens Lehmann's penalty heroics knocked them out in 2006 and a superb German team performance led to a 4-0 victory in Cape Town four years ago.
This year, Argentina have had the good fortune of avoiding the Germans until the Final. No European team has ever won a World Cup in the Americas. Will Germany be the first?
Germany arrives on a roll, having just destroyed hosts Brazil 7-1 on Tuesday. The Germans started with an early set piece goal, and then passed the ball into the net 4 times in 6 minutes to take a 5-0 lead into halftime.
Watch the highlights of the Argentina/Germany match 4 years ago. The ease with which Germany scored their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th goals. It reminds you of the Brazilian demolition that took place on Tuesday.
Germany does well against South American opposition. They have struggled against more physical tests like Algeria and Ghana who played a direct, attacking style. The whole world knows Argentina has great forwards, but do they have a good enough defense to keep the Germans from dominating yet again?
Germany found most of their success in 2010 down their left hand side, or Argentina's right. In Cape Town, Argentina played Nicolas Otamendi, a center back, out of position on right. Lukas Podolski tore him apart. Now Argentina plays Pablo Zabaleta in that position, arguably the best right back in the world. Consider that problem fixed.
Against Brazil, most of what Germany created came down their right, where Phillip Lahm overlapped Thomas Muller, or quickly through the middle, storming forward in numbers after a midfield tackle. Argentina's left back Marcos Rojo has had a strong World Cup, and Javier Mascherano has been possibly the best player in the tournament in central midfield.
Defensively, Germany might struggle to deal with pace, especially on their left hand side, where Benedikt Howedes is playing out of position as a left back, and Mesut Ozil, who is not a natural winger, is asked to track back and help Howedes defend. Mats Hummels and Per Mertesacker lack pace--they were exposed by Algeria and have not played together for Germany since then. Jerome Boateng sometimes gets caught out of position and is prone to occasional lapses in concentration.
Thats where Messi enters in. Messi is at his best cutting in from the right hand side onto his stronger left foot. Lavezzi provides pace, and so would Aguero if he is fit. Gonzalo Higuain will stay on the shoulder of the last defender and be a threat for through balls in behind a defense that has a vulnerability to through balls. Manuel Neuer has performed admirably as a sweeper keeper, rushing out of his box to make last-ditch clearances. One mistake, however, and Argentina could score easily.
Looking at form, Germany should win this. They are on fire and have easily been the most impressive team in the tournament. They have scored 18 goals and conceded just 4. They've only gone to extra time once in knockout play. And they've never needed penalties.
But looking at the matchup, Argentina seems to have the players who could really test the Germans' weaknesses, perhaps more than any other team in the tournament. Argentina has been stronger in defense than in years' past, and the quality of their attack is unquestioned.
South American teams have done really well in the World Cup for two reasons. First, they are used to the hot, humid conditions. But more importantly, they have enjoyed fantastic support in the stadiums. It was a real shame that 4 of the South American teams got grouped together in the knockout rounds, as I would have expected Chile and Colombia to go further in the tournament against different opponents.
It's a tough match to predict, but when two teams seem to be equal on paper, I give the advantage to the team with a superior goalkeeper. Manuel Neuer is the best goalkeeper in the world. Sergio Romero is nowhere close to that.
So I'll pick Germany. 2-nil.
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