NCAA Championship Preview

UConn--a 7 seed--will play Kentucky--an 8 seed--tonight in Dallas for the NCAA Championship. While both teams' seeds suggest they have been massive underdogs in this year's tournament, both programs have won NCAA championships in the last 4 years. And the two teams couldn't be more different.

Kentucky won it all just 2 years ago. The core of that team is gone now. A team that was built around the most talented freshmen in the country jumped to the NBA (or in Kyle Wiltjer's case transferred to Gonzaga) and coach John Calipari replaced them with...more freshmen.

Kentucky's "Fab 5" hasn't been the media sideshow that Michigan's 5 freshmen starters were in the early 90s. Mainly because Kentucky was distinctly average in the regular season. Kentucky was swept by Arkansas, lost at LSU, lost at South Carolina, and lost to Florida by an average of 15 points in 2 regular season matchups.

Heading into the tournament, Kentucky's record in games decided by 5 points or less was 2-8. They looked like a team that wasn't mature enough to handle the pressure in the most crucial moments. A team that was prone to mental errors and mistakes due to their lack of experience.

Since then, Kentucky has won 4 consecutive games by 5 points or less to get to the Championship game. The first team ever to do that in the NCAA tournament. The script flipped completely. Almost overnight, Kentucky's kid's grew up. All of a sudden, Kentucky's freshmen are the kings of the clutch moments.

UConn won it all 3 years ago behind a series of heroic performances by senior UConn guard Kemba Walker. Shabazz Napier and Niels Giffey were freshmen, and both played heavy minutes for John Calhoun's championship team. Napier was the starting point guard. In the 3 years since, John Calhoun resigned due to health problems, the Big East fell apart, and the program faced a one-year post-season ban last season due to NCAA academic sanctions.

The UConn stars stuck around through this adversity, and it has reaped major rewards for the Huskies. UConn's best 4 players are upperclassmen. Napier and Giffey are seniors, and Napier is reminding a lot of people of Walker with his number of impressive performances in the tournament. Ryan Boatright and DeAndre Daniels are juniors.

New coach Kevin Ollie had a very long NBA career, and like Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State, this professional approach to college coaching seems to be working very well. Ollie's tactical decisions against Florida confused the Gators after the SEC champs and #1 overall seed failed to build on their early 16-4 lead in the semifinal.

The contrasts between UConn and Kentucky couldn't be more obvious. Only time will tell whether UConn's experience will win over Kentucky's talent.

EPL Review April 6 - Another Great Sunday on Merseyside

For the second straight week both Liverpool-based Premier League clubs took all the points on a Sunday. Liverpool moved back to the top of the league after some poor refereeing by Anthony Taylor tied the match up. And Everton thoroughly outplayed Arsenal in the early match, winning 3-0.

Everton plays at Sunderland next Saturday so at least I won't have to write about another great Sunday in Merseyside next week I guess.

The two Liverpool clubs are the most in-form teams in the Premier League at the moment. Liverpool is top of the league with a run of 9 consecutive victories. Everton has now won 6 in a row.

West Ham 1 - Liverpool 2

The referee took center stage today, as both of Liverpool's goals came from penalty kicks. But the worst decision by Anthony Taylor upheld a West Ham equalizer that surely should have been ruled out for a foul. Andy Carroll smacked Simon Mignolet in the face and arm on a corner kick, causing the Liverpool goalkeeper to drop the ball, and Guy Demel scored.

Taylor's linesman even called the foul, only for the head referee to overrule him. Just another case of awful Premier League refereeing in a season highlighted by many bizarre, inexplicable decisions.

Everton 3 - Arsenal 0

Roberto Martinez must have learned a lot from his team's 4-1 loss to Arsenal in the FA Cup a month ago. Martinez tweaked his tactics, shifting to a 4-3-3 instead of the 4-2-3-1 Everton has used for most of the year. Martinez also opted for Steven Naismith in the middle as a false 9, and moved more traditional center-forwards Romelu Lukaku and Kevin Mirallas out to the wings. Naismith dropped deep to create space for the other two forwards, and Martinez's change in strategy was very effective.

The shift of Lukaku in particular paid big dividends. Lukaku was allowed to manhandle Nacho Monreal (who looks increasingly out of his depth in the English game) instead of taking on a more physical matchup with either of Arsenal's center backs. Lukaku cut in on his stronger left foot without much of a fight from Monreal, and he was a real problem for Arsenal today, heavily involved in both of Everton's first two goals.

On the other side of the pitch, it was a truly pathetic performance by Arsenal, and a concerning one considering the Gunners' last away match was a similar capitulation at Stamford Bridge. The Gunners offered very little going forward until Aaron Ramsey and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain were introduced in the second half. But at that point Arsenal was already 3-nil down. Next up is the FA Cup semi-final, and the timing couldn't be any worse for Wenger's team.

On January 18th, Arsenal topped the league with 51 points after 22 matches. Since then, Liverpool has taken 31 of 33 available points in 11 matches.

Arsenal has taken just 13.

The Gunners now sit just one point ahead of Everton in 4th place, with Everton holding a game in hand. Arsenal will need Everton to drop points in order to secure another season in the Champions League.

Arsenal missed a real chance to take control of 4th place today. And now the Gunners are closer to  6th place Manchester United than they are to either Chelsea or Liverpool at the top.

Arsenal has completely collapsed this spring. But in the FA Cup, Arsenal does have a chance at redemption. A chance to bring some joy back to the fans after a devastating 3 months. Next week's trip to Wembley is absolutely vital if Arsenal is going to save their disintegrating season.

EPL Review April 5 - The Relegation Rundown

Most of today's drama took place at the bottom of the Premier League table, as City and Chelsea won by 3 goal margins at home to keep their title credentials. Hull all but secured their safety with a 1-0 home win against Swansea.

The away team won every other match today. These 3 were the most crucial to the upcoming relegation fight.

Cardiff 0 - Crystal Palace 3

Cardiff seems doomed to the Championship at this point. The Bluebirds (in red shirts) were thoroughly outplayed and outmatched by Tony Pulis's Crystal Palace. And while it looks as though Cardiff failed to take their last chance to escape from the bottom 3, their remaining fixtures are actually very kind.

It will take a much better effort than what Cardiff put forth today, but the Bluebirds could stay up yet.

Cardiff's last 5 matches are Southampton (A), Stoke (H), Sunderland (A), Newcastle (A), and Chelsea (H). Cardiff has the worst away form in the league, but they are fortunate to visit Southampton and Newcastle this late in the season. Both opponents are safely mid-table and will not have much to play for. Newcastle in particular looks like a team that has checked out completely. And a loss at Anfield would most likely mean the Blues will clinch their position in the table before their last match at Cardiff. Chelsea could possibly be resting their star players in what would amount to a meaningless match for them.

Sunderland away will obviously be a must-win match for both sides. The loser will surely sink to the Championship, and a draw could possibly bring the same result for both clubs. Sunderland currently sits bottom with 25 points and 3 games in hand. If Sunderland wins just one of those 3 extra matches it would move the Black Cats into 18th. Cardiff must beat Sunderland if they want to continue fighting in the top division after so many years in the lower leagues.

Norwich City 0 - West Brom 1

The Baggies rebounded from a shocking 3-3 draw against Cardiff last week to take the three points in East Anglia today. Norwich were unlucky not to equalize, hitting the woodwork multiple times. But the win moved West Brom ahead of Norwich on goal difference, and the Canaries now sit in the dreaded 17th position, nervously looking over their shoulder when they need to be fixated on a daunting schedule ahead.

West Brom's season has been as bizarre as Morgan Amalfitano's personal competition for Premier League goal of the season. West Brom has just 12 losses this season, less than Newcastle, Stoke, West Ham, and Hull. But before today's win at Carrow Road, West Brom had the least amount of wins in the league. Now they are tied for last with Cardiff and Sunderland with just 6 wins. Obviously, they've drawn a lot of matches. 14 to be specific. 4 more than anyone else.

West Brom knows they'll need to win a few more to ensure safety. And their schedule is similar to Cardiff's in that it features a few teams who won't have much to play for. The Baggies' last 6 matches are: Tottenham (H), City(A), West Ham (H), Arsenal (A), Sunderland (A), and Stoke (H).

While the matches against City and Arsenal away will be tough to take anything from, the other matches look better for West Brom. Mid-table matchups with Spurs, West Ham, and Stoke--all at home--could be what keeps West Brom up another year.

Norwich, on the other hand, has an absolute gauntlet ahead of them. Norwich plays Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (A), and Arsenal (H). Norwich already has the 2nd worst away record in the league, and they haven't even played at Old Trafford or at Stamford Bridge yet! Add in next week's relegation 6-pointer at Craven Cottage and Norwich looks very likely to end up in the bottom 3.

It's entirely possible Norwich will end the season with the 32 points they have right now. Chris Hughton has a massive job ahead of him. Norwich's unlikely victories against some of England's best clubs have kept them in the Premier League for 3 years. They'll need to replicate that form if they are earn a 4th.

Aston Villa 1 - Fulham 2

Hugo Rodallega--whose late-season goals saved Wigan from the drop a few times in seasons' past--scored the winner to secure a vital 3 points for Fulham. Fulham took advantage of a toothless Villa team that just this week lost Benteke for the remainder of the season as the big Belgian was injured in training.

Villa isn't safe yet, and they have a fairly difficult 6 matches remaining. They play Crystal Palace (A), Southampton (H), Swansea (A), Hull (H), Manchester City (A), and Tottenham (A). Villa must win their 2 remaining home matches against Southampton and Hull. That would get them to the fabled 40-point mark.

The other matches aren't so easy. Villa will have to visit 3 teams who are either fighting for the title or fighting for their own survival. They couldn't have picked a worse time to play at Crystal Palace.

Without Benteke, Villa may struggle to score goals. Not a good sign for a team that is tied for 4th worst in the league with 48 goals conceded. Paul Lambert is a good manager, and he will need to be if he is going to keep Villa out of the bottom 3 at season's end.

Fulham is on their tails. Today's victory moved Fulham from last to 18th. The Cottagers may have just enough to stay up after all.

Fulham is the anti-West Brom. They've drawn only 3 matches, won 8, and lost a whopping 22. They've lost more home matches than anyone. Only Norwich has more away losses.

Fulham has conceded an embarrassing 74 goals. Well over 2 per match, and 3 times more than West London rivals Chelsea.

And yet a few more 2-1 victories may be all it takes for Felix Magath to work his magic and save the Cottagers from the brink of relegation yet again. The man does not go down easy. In fact he never has.

Fulham plays Norwich (H), Spurs (A), Hull (H), Stoke (A), and finally Crystal Palace (H). The significance of the Norwich match is obvious. And given Norwich's woeful away record, Fulham will be very confident next week. Plus, in all likelihood, Crystal Palace's current form will guarantee their safety before Fulham's last match. Spurs, Hull, and Stoke all seem safe already. Its a very kind schedule for Fulham.

I'll admit I completely wrote Fulham off months ago. But surprising, unpredictable results like today's are what makes the Premier League so great...as long as you aren't a gambler!

EPL Preview + Podcast

As the Premier League reaches the "business end" of the season, the most interesting games involve teams fighting at the top or the bottom. With that in mind, these are the 3 matches I'm most looking forward to this weekend.

1. Man City vs Southampton

Southampton's 4-nil victory against Newcastle last week was very impressive, and they will take a huge amount of momentum into the Etihad.

Southampton has been surprisingly successful since their return to the Premier League against City. After taking the lead at the champions in the first match of last season, Southampton lost 3-2. Since then, Southampton took 4 points from their next two matches against City, winning 3-1 and drawing 1-1, both at home. Pocchetino seems to have City's number.

Normally mid-table teams like Southampton don't have much to play for at the tail end of the season. Safe from relegation, the mid-table teams tend to ease off and start their vacation early. The Southampton players do have something to play for, however, because many of them are trying to force their way onto England's World Cup team.

Adam Lallana, Jay Rodriguez, and Rickie Lambert were outstanding against Newcastle last weekend, and they will continue to fight for their place on the plane to Brazil at the Etihad. Lallana in particular has been extremely impressive, and many pundits are suggesting he could even start for England in the upcoming World Cup campaign after winning his first cap just this season.

City was dominant in the first half at Arsenal last week, but Arsenal rebounded to equalize and then took control of the game late. Both sides can count themselves lucky to escape with a point.

For as much as everyone talks about the title being in Liverpool's hands, City also is in a position to control their own destiny. City knows they can't afford to drop points and they will want to keep the pressure on Liverpool, who play on Sunday. Southampton's defense is a little suspect since losing Dejan Lovren to injury, and City may simply have too much firepower for the Saints to handle.

2. Everton vs Arsenal

The most crucial match in the race for the final Champions League position is at Goodison on Sunday. Everton is 4 points behind Arsenal with a game in hand, so much like the City/Liverpool situation, both Arsenal and Everton are in control of their own destiny largely because of this match.

Because they are in the lead, Arsenal will consider a draw to be a good result. But a victory would all but secure 4th place for the Gunners, and furthermore it could allow Arsenal to push on and re-assert their title credentials in the last 5 matches of the season.

Injuries might decide it. Aaron Ramsey is back in the Arsenal squad. And Ross Barkley is a major doubt. Ramsey and Barkley have been their teams' best players this season. Ramsey returning and Barkley missing could be enough for Arsenal to win.

3. West Ham vs Liverpool

Liverpool faces the Liverpool rejects, as Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing will try to prove a point against the media darlings from Merseyside. West Ham will need to stay compact and they will hope to catch Liverpool's defense on the counter to win the game. They will probably be happy with a draw.

Liverpool will want to keep their outstanding run of form going. Brendan Rogers's team has won their last 8 Premier League matches, starting with their 5-1 demolition of Arsenal at Anfield on February 8th. Liverpool are truly playing at a title-winning level at the moment. It is hard to see how West Ham will be able to compete.

For a more in-depth look at all of this weekend's matches, check out this podcast hosted by my friends and fellow Arsenal supporters @judetheiii  and @Prany94. They were kind enough to invite me on to ramble about all of this weekend's 10 matches. Give it a listen!

Welsh Jesus is Risen!

Today Arsenal announced that both Nacho Monreal and Aaron Ramsey will be returning to the first team ahead of Sunday's crucial match at Everton in the race for 4th place.

The addition of Ramsey, in particular, has Arsenal fans very excited. The Wales international was the best player in England before getting injured against West Ham on Boxing Day. He has been sorely missed in the 20 matches Arsenal played without him.

Arsenal was top after a 3-1 win on Boxing day with 12 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in their first 18 Premier League matches. Ramsey played all of them, scoring 8 goals and assisting 6 more in 18 league matches.

Since losing "the Welsh Jesus" to injury, Arsenal have won just 7 league matches, drawn 4 and lost 3. Additional injuries to Wilshere and Ozil also led to this dip in form, but Ramsey has been the most sorely missed player in England, not just at Arsenal. Ramsey's efforts in the first half of the year may have been as good as a Premier League midfielder has ever played.

Ramsey has developed into a very good tackler and a better defensive player than he is given credit for. But his real strength, and what separates him from the competition, is his goal scoring.

Ramsey scored 15 goals in 31 total matches before his injury. With a goalscoring record of 48% (goals/games), Ramsey's form defied logic for his position. Ramsey is a deep-lying, box-to-box central midfielder, not an attacking midfielder. He also scored all 15 goals from open play; none from free kicks or penalties.

Had Ramsey kept form over the 20 matches missed in all competitions, he would have scored 25 goals this season. In the Premier League specifically, Ramsey would have scored roughly 7 goals in the last 14 Premier League games, taking his total up to 13, which would tie him with Olivier Giroud and Loic Remy for the 8th most in league play. Only Yaya Toure can boast a better goal rate from a similar midfield role this season.

Might Ramsey become the best British midfielder ever to play in the Premier League?

For years the Premier League's most revered home-grown central midfielders were Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. Both chipped in over 100 goals for their respective teams from midfield, and both seem to be the most logical comparison to Ramsey.

Lampard and Gerrard each have only put together one campaign with a goal rate even close to as lethal as Ramsey was for the first half of the season, however. And neither did so at such a young age.

Gerrard's best season was 2008/09, when he scored 19 goals in 41 total matches, a goal rate of 46%, just slightly lower than Ramsey's 48%. This was the only season Gerrard scored more than 15 goals in a season. He was 28 years old.

Again, Ramsey scored 15 goals in the first half of this season at a 48% rate. Ramsey is 23 years old.

Lampard is a much higher standard, as far as goalscoring goes. Lampard has a significantly more consistent goal scoring rate for Chelsea. Lampard scored 15 more goals in 9 different seasons. But Lampard's goal rate was 40% or higher just 3 times: 20 goals in 50 matches in 2005/06 (40%), 16 goals in 38 matches in 2011/12 (42%), and his best ever season, 27 goals in 51 matches in 2009/10 (53%).

Lampard was 31 in that season, and his goalscoring record was boosted, perhaps artificially, by converting 10 penalty kicks in the Premier League alone--the 2nd most ever by an EPL player.

In the end, both Lampard and Gerrard only have had one season where they scored as frequently as Ramsey. They did so at a much older age, and the goals scored were less difficult as both players were designated penalty takers for their teams.

Simply put, the numbers suggest Aaron Ramsey could become the best goalscoring British midfielder in Premier League history.

His "resurrection" from injury will be rejoiced by Gunners fans across the world.

Easter has come early for the Arsenal.

US/Mexico Preview

The World Cup is just 10 weeks away, and the United States scheduled a traditional friendly with Mexico tonight to prepare. The friendly is outside of FIFA's calendar for mandated international breaks but both nations agreed to play it anyway. This additional game will help both US manager Jurgen Klinsmann and Mexican manager Miguel Herrera finalize their squads and evaluate their players, as the match could perhaps give both teams a leg up on World Cup competitors who won't be playing this week.

Klinsmann selected a 22-man roster to play in the match, choosing exclusively North American-based players (with one exception, a reserve player from Germany--more on him later) in order to be fair to the European-based players' club teams and not burden their squads with undue travel and fatigue in what amounts to an important, but unnecessary match.

The squad Klinsmann chose is below:

GK - Bill Hamid (DC United), Sean Johnson (Chicago Fire), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake)

DEFENSE - Tony Beltran (Real Salt Lake), Matt Besler (Sporting KC), Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy), Clarence Goodson (San Jose Earthquakes), Michael Parkhurst (Colombus Crew), DeAndre Yedlin (Seattle Sounders FC), DaMarcus Beasley (Puebla (MEX)), Michael Orozco (Puebla (MEX))

MIDFIELD - Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake), Michael Bradley (Toronto FC), Brad Davis (Houston Dynamo), Landon Donovan (LA Galaxy), Maurice Edu (Philadelphia Union), Luis Gil (Real Salt Lake), Graham Zusi (Sporting KC)

FORWARDS - Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders), Julian Green (Bayern Munich Reserves), Eddie Johnson (DC United), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes)

On Monday, Mexican club Puebla declined to release Beasley and Orozco for the match, however. Klinsmann's squad was reduced to 20, and is now very short of defenders, with just 6 defenders now available.

Crucially, Puebla's decision leaves the US squad without any left backs.

Left back has been a tough spot for the US to fill since Frankie Hejduk's admirable performance in the 2002 World Cup. After first converting winger Eddie Lewis to play the role, the US has also tried Jonathan Bornstein and Edgar Castillo, never with much success. But in last year's World Cup qualifiers, former PSV and Manchester City winger Beasley embraced the role and was the US's most surprising player. Beasley should expect to feature at left fullback in the upcoming World Cup, but not tonight.

Castillo, the most likely back-up for Beasley, plays for Club Tijuana in Mexico. Tijuana won a CONCACAF Champions League semi-final against Cruz Azul last night, and Klinsmann chose not to select Castillo for the friendly out of respect for Tijuana's involvement in the competition. Puebla has no such match, and therefore Klinsmann rightfully assumed Beasley and Orozco would be allowed to play.

The Mexican team consists of 22 players, all coming from the Mexican League. Two of these players (defender Rogelio Alfredo Chavez and attacking midfielder Marco Fabian) were pulled from Cruz Azul's Champions League squad to play for their country. And yet Beasley and Orozco will be the players missing from tonight's match.

The lack of sportsmanship shown by Puebla here is disappointing. Klinsmann used stronger words in an interview with Univision.

"We got notice today from Puebla that they don't release DaMarcus Beasley and Orozco, which we'd planned on and we are very angry, very angry about this," Klinsmann said. "The Mexican clubs release all their players for this very prestigious friendly. For us, [with the] World Cup coming up, it's very important. And [Puebla] doesn't play in the CONCACAF Champions League, which we have a lot of respect for, but they don't release two players which are very important to us--it makes us upset."

The US will likely be forced play versatile defender Parkhurst in Beasley's role, or play one of the squad's two specialist right backs, Yedlin or Beltran, on the left. But seeing how the US manages this defensive handicap is only one reason to watch the match tonight (kicking of at 11 pm ET).

The other is to get a first look at German-American starlet Julian Green. Green has been very impressive in the Bayern reserves this season, and has been tipped to eventually make the jump to Bayern's first team by Bayern superstars Arjen Robben and Bastian Schweinsteiger in an interview with SI.com.

"He's got great potential, so I think you can be happy about the fact he chose to play for the US." Robben said. "He's a great talent. He already trained with [Bayern's first team] several times, and you can see he has potential. He's quick, he's got very good dribbling and can score goals."

"First, I think he has a good personality, that's for me always important," Schweinsteiger said. "And second he's very quick--without the ball and with the ball. He plays a little bit like me. I'm not as quick as him, but at the beginning of my career I was playing on the left side outside, like his position now, and would come in and shoot with the right foot. He's done that a lot. He's young, but he's fresh and dynamic. It's good for the US now, absolutely."

18-year-old Green's choice to play for the US ahead of his native Germany is a major coup by US soccer fans. Born in Germany to a German mother and an American GI father, Green's decision comes after the US missed out on many other talented European-based players who chose to play for European nations ahead of the US.

New Jersey-born Italy striker Giuseppe Rossi was perhaps the biggest name missed, but Stuttgart/Bosnia striker Vedad Ibisevic, who played high school and collegiate soccer in St Louis, Missouri, also would have provided serious competition to Jozy Altidore up front. Utah-born Serbian defender Neven Subotic of Dortmund could have been a much more important player than either Rossi or Ibisevic for a US team who has suffered with a suspect defense in recent years.

Times have changed. The US has already captured similar German-based players with American military backgrounds in Danny Williams, Timothy Chandler and Terrance Boyd since Klinsmann was hired. And after securing Icelandic-American striker Aron Johansson last year, Green is further evidence that Klinsmann, Sunil Gulati, and the US Soccer Federation has made securing these young talented players with dual citizenship a top priority; a strategy that should pay dividends over the next decade.

In Defense of David Moyes

Entitled Manchester United supporters scoff that Moyes inherited a “championship team,” but: 

(1) How strong has United’s team truly been since selling Ronaldo in 2009? And

(2) What sort of competition did they face for the title during their two title campaigns in the last 3 seasons?

The answers are (1) increasingly average and (2) none whatsoever.

I’ll address the competition argument first.

In 2012/13 United was the only team in the EPL with more than 80 points. The 2010/11 championship team also was the only team in the league to reach the 80-point mark. When faced with serious competition for the title from Chelsea in 2009/10 (86 pts) and City in 2011/12 (89 pts), United came in second.

The reasons why Chelsea and City struggled last season are abundantly clear.

The Benitez saga at Chelsea was a joke, and the Blues struggled to handle a media circus that surrounded their team.

The same applied to City. Major discord arose between manager Roberto Mancini and the City board, as Mancini ended up getting sacked simply because he was on very high wages and City needed to cut the wage bill to balance the books for Financial Fair Play.

It’s no surprise United won the league last season facing such lackluster competition. But the manner in which they did so should have rung the alarm bells at Old Trafford. An on-fire Robin van Persie distracted from a team that’s age was catching up to them, a team that was leaking an alarming amount of goals.

That’s because United’s defense and midfield has declined sharply over the past 4 seasons.

DEFENSE

United conceded 43 goals in 2012/13. That was more than City, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Everton. 43 was tied with Liverpool for the 5^th best defense in the league.

Look at how United’s defensive record declined:

2009/10: 28 goals conceded. Best defensive record in England. Finished 2^nd to Chelsea with 85 pts.

2010/11: 37 goals conceded. 3^rd best defensive record in England. Finished 1^st with 80 pts.

2011/12: 33 goals conceded. 2^nd best defensive record in England. Finished 2^nd on goal difference to City with 89 pts. 

2012/13: 43 goals conceded. Tied for the 5^th best defensive record in England. Finished 1^st with 89 pts.

United have conceded 38 goals this season with 6 games left to play.  United currently have, for the second straight season, the 5^th best defensive record in the league.

Moyes inherited a defense that was worse than his rivals and getting worse every day. United’s defense has 3 first team players who are 32 or older and well past their prime. Understanding this, it is hard to say that Moyes is at fault for a defense that has performed at the level anyone should have expected them to play this season. In fact an argument could be made that United’s defense has overachieved under Moyes this season.

MIDFIELD

On top of the defense’s decline with age, United’s midfield is alarmingly lacking in mobility. The top English teams all have midfielders who “run all day,” constantly closing down the ball and harassing their opponent to win the ball back quickly. As the league has evolved, having these types of players who can both put pressure on the ball in midfield and cover for attacking fullbacks has become an absolute necessity.

The days when you could win the Premier League with two slow central midfielders in their 30s are over.

City replaced the static Gareth Barry with the more mobile Fernandinho. Ramires provides a huge amount of mobility for Chelsea. Liverpool has relied heavily on the vastly improved Jordan Henderson for his energy and work rate this season. Aaron Ramsey was this player for Arsenal, and Arsenal’s poor form since his injury is similar to United’s form all season. Even Everton brought in this type of player in James McCarthy.

United doesn’t have a comparable midfielder. For years United fans have been asking for central midfielders, and Sir Alex Ferguson chose to convert Ryan Giggs to play that role and bring Paul Scholes out of retirement rather than pursuing a long-term solution. Even when an obvious long term solution was wasting away in United’s academy.

As the Premier League shifted to midfielders with pace and energy, Ferguson failed to adapt.

Moyes inherited the inevitable consequences of Ferguson’s short-sightedness.

TRANSFERS

Moyes tried to fix Ferguson’s mistakes. Moyes went after quality midfielders this summer. He pursued Thiago Alcantara. Thiago chose to join Guardiola at Bayern instead. The Ander Herrerra saga was not Moyes’s fault, as United’s transfer executives (read: not Moyes) were duped by people pretending to represent the player and United’s transfer proposal never reached Athletic Bilbao. In the end, Moyes settled for a deadline-day move for Marouane Fellaini. But Fellaini was nothing other than a last resort.

Who else was available? Who else changed clubs?

Paulinho? Luiz Gustavo? Kevin Strootman? Geoffrey Kondogbia? All chose to play for teams with less competition for places in preparation for the World Cup. And would any of them honestly turn United’s season around single-handedly?

I know! Moyes should have invented a time machine to keep former United academy/current Juventus young superstar Paul Pogba!

Sir Alex made Pogba sit behind Fletcher, Giggs, Scholes, Carrick, Anderson and Cleverley. Ferguson let arguably the best young midfielder in the world bolt for Italy. Not Moyes.

Moyes went out and bought BY FAR the best player available in world football this January: Juan Mata. There isn’t a single better player who changed clubs in the winter.

And still United fans cry that he can’t play in their system, that he isn’t a winger, and that Moyes is clueless for wasting money on him.

Nonsense. Mata played as a winger in a Hazard-Oscar-Mata trio more than 20 times last season. It worked because Chelsea had a mobile midfielder in Ramires who could cover for the Spaniard. United has no such mobility. United has Carrick, Fletcher, Giggs, Cleverley, Anderson, and now Fellaini.

Demanding Moyes to fix United's midfield problems in two transfer windows is daft. They have only become more and more apparent over the past 4 seasons. United fans have chosen to ignore them. 

The acquisition of the most in-form striker in the league was able to cover up United’s substandard defense and midfield last season. But even the van Persie acquisition came at a heavy price to the long-term balance of the United team.

ATTACK

When Ferguson bought van Perise nearly every pundit wondered:

(1) How Rooney and van Persie would be able to play together, and

(2) Whether a 4-year deal for a 28-year-old player with a lengthy injury record, and who also played in Rooney’s position, was a good long-term investment.

The answers are simple: (1) they can’t, and (2) it wasn’t.

Rooney couldn’t play with Berbatov either, remember? Rooney only plays well as a #10 when partnered with a genuine poacher, a player who keeps the spacing by staying on the shoulder of the last defender and looks to run in behind. A player who only wants to finish an attacking move, not contribute to it.

Rooney’s partnerships with Tevez, Chicharito, and Welbeck in the past have been effective, while his partnerships with Berbatov and now van Persie have failed.

This is because Berbatov and van Persie aren’t poachers. They are better on the ball, and naturally drop deeper to be more involved in the build-up. Rooney can’t alter his game to play with these types of players. For all his supposed “versatility,” Wayne is remarkably inflexible.

Ferguson must have known this about Rooney, because he benched him and rode an on-fire van Persie off into the sunset to go out on top.

Rooney’s displeasure at being benched was well-reported, culminating with his highly-publicized transfer request at the end of last season. Fergie’s “masterstroke signing” left behind a large amount of discord and friction in the dressing room.

Remember that a majority of United’s transfer window was held hostage by Rooney as he tried to push his way out of the club. Few United supporters mention this when complaining about how poorly Moyes handled his first transfer window. I can’t imagine what they’d say had Rooney left.

Knowing that losing Rooney to an English rival would be an absolute disaster, United doubled-down with a huge improved contract to convince Rooney to stay. The problem is, with Financial Fair Play, no team can afford to bench a player earning 26 million pounds per year (more than Yaya Toure and Sergio Aguero combined…and United fans call City players mercenaries!).

Van Persie has, predictably, cooled off as the injury problems that dominated most of his career have resurfaced and the forced partnership with Rooney hasn’t been effective. In addition, Rooney simply isn’t playing at nearly the same blistering form van Persie did last season. Rooney isn’t earning his hefty paycheck.

Rooney has been good, not great. 15 goals in 27 matches is a good record, its pretty comparable to Olivier Giroud’s 13 goals in 30 matches. It’s not great like van Persie’s 26 goal effort last year or Luis Suarez’s 29 goals so far this season.

The result has been a decline from 86 goals scored in 2012/13 – the best in England – to just 52 goals this season – 5^th best in the league.

MOYES’S TACTICS

Moyes never had high-scoring teams at Everton, but he had a strong defensive track record. Ferguson and the Man United board room felt the club’s ageing defense and midfield needed a conservative approach in order to protect what is the team’s most obvious weakness, and Moyes was the man for that job. I believe they were correct in that assessment.

Ferguson and the United board perhaps wrongfully assumed there was enough talent available in attack to continue to score goals, even in Moyes’s conservative approach.  Perhaps Fergie forgot that the club’s best two players preferred to play the same exact position and could not play together. It was someone else’s problem now, after all.

United supporters have chastised Moyes’s conservatism and pleaded for a more aggressive, attacking style of play. I believe United’s weaknesses in defense, and their midfield’s lack of mobility to cover for that defense, would only be further exposed in such an approach. 

Embarrassing results like the 1-6 defeat to City at Old Trafford in 2011 would be more frequent. And United would most likely be doing even worse than they are currently.

Moyes needs time to rebuild the defense and midfield to compete in the modern Premier League. He needs time to build a new attack around Rooney, Januzaj, and Mata. The squad Moyes inherited is nowhere near as good as Man United supporters would like to believe. Ferguson did him no favors whatsoever.

Ferguson, not Moyes, is United's April fool. It’s no wonder Ferguson stressed how important it would be to “stand by the next manager” in his final farewell.

Sir Alex knew he was handing over a team that was built to compete in 2008, not 2014.