After a dismal display in the first half, Arsenal responded to beat West Ham United and took 4th place back, for a day at least!
Arsenal was lucky not to be 2 goals behind after 40 minutes. Matt Jarvis jumped over a sloppy Sagna challenge and the referee failed to award a penalty. Olivier Giroud whiffed at a great chance from a cross and feebly tried and failed to chip the goalkeeper when through one-on-one.
Jarvis scored the scrappy opening goal. It was the type of goal Arsenal always seems to concede. Antonio Nocerino made a run from midfield and shot on goal, and Wojciech Szczesny could only parry the ball into the middle of the box, and Jarvis headed the rebound in.
Make no mistake, no player should take a larger share of the blame for the goal than Szczesny himself.
The boy is not improving. Everton constantly exploited the space in between our center backs and full-backs two weeks ago, and West Ham did so as well for their opening goal. Szczesny needs to be the general shouting orders at his defense. He has the vantage point to communicate with the defense and get their positioning right. He is consistently failing in that role.
The positioning was horrible again last night. Koscielny was in the middle of the box and Vermaelen had followed his mark all the way to the touchline. Nocerino's run wasn't tracked well by Kallstrom, either, but Koscielny needed to be in a better position to tighten the gap between the two.
Furthermore, Szczesny's tendency to give up a rebound in a very dangerous position hurt Arsenal yet again. Nocerino's shot came from an impossible angle near the endline. Szczesny was standing on his near post and covering the entire goal. It was impossible for Nocerino to score. But Szczesny's parry put the ball in a more dangerous area than from where the Italian's shot came.
Szczesny needs to do better from that position. A top goalkeeper for a top club either puts that ball out for a corner or smothers it and gives his team possession.
I frankly feared the worst after the opener. Luckily Szczesny was not tested again. West Ham had just two shots on target all match, Nocerino's shot from the endline and Jarvis's headed goal on the rebound. The younger of Arsenal's two polekeepers failed his only test.
Thank God every other Arsenal player passed their tests in flying colors.
Santi Cazorla was thoroughly excellent in midfield after playing the full 2 hours at Wembley Saturday. Mikel Arteta also did not let the fatigue get to him, and the Spaniard had one of his best games all season. Kim Kallstrom was great in his first start. His willingness to try ambitious longer passes made the Arsenal attack more diverse and unpredictable. And Stewart Downing's pinpoint pass to Cazorla set up Arsenal's equalizer.
Wait, Downing plays for West Ham? Could have fooled me last night.
Olivier Giroud scored a fantastic goal from a Kallstrom-esque long pass by Vermaelen--who did very well at left back last night (although again...Stewart Downing...). Giroud's first touch took the ball down incredibly well and his finish nutmegged the West Ham goalkeeper to take the lead.
Giroud's first touch may be as good as I've ever seen for a player his size. His importance to Arsenal's possession game is huge. He provides the focal point for the midfielders to play around, and his deft one-touch passing can turn opposing defenders inside-out. This first touch has led to fantastic assists to Rosicky and of course Wilshere in two candidates for goal of the season. Today he made another goal of the year candidate for himself from the complete opposite type of chance, a long ball. He just needs to finish more consistently to be the top class striker Arsene Wenger believes he can be.
Maybe Giroud should take lessons from his teammate, Lukas Podolski. Podolski has finishing down to a science. The German was the man of the match. After being visibly and vocally frustrated with his substitution at Wembley, Podolski scored two unstoppable shots when he received the ball in dangerous positions.
The first came five minutes after West Ham's opener. Downing's "clearance" found Cazorla just outside the box and Cazorla fed Podolski on the left side of the penalty area. The German took a touch with his right and coolly slotted the ball in the far post with his left before the defense could react and get back into a compact position.
The second put Arsenal up by 2 goals and ended the game. Aaron Ramsey's header put Podolski in a dangerous position, and the German let the ball roll onto his left foot and fired a powerful shot directly over the goalkeeper's head. The shot was so strong that the keeper had no time to react and get his hands up to stop it.
The win puts Arsenal back in 4th place, for a day at least. Everton hosts Crystal Palace at Goodison later today. But looking at the schedule ahead, no match will pose a similar challenge in the run-in. The FA Cup Final is after the season ends, so Arsenal will get plenty of time to rest in between the remaining matches.
With Flamini returning and reports that Mesut Ozil will also be available for the Hull match on Sunday, things are finally looking up for the Arsenal.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Arsenal v West Ham Preview
Arsenal hosts West Ham United tonight, just 3 days after playing 120 minutes at Wembley and winning the FA Cup semifinal on penalties. A victory would put Arsenal ahead of Everton before the Toffees play Crystal Palace at Goodison tomorrow.
The problem is, I have absolutely no clue who will be fit to play tonight.
The backline should be fairly easy. Wojciech Szczesny should start in goal. Per Mertesacker should keep his place despite playing 120 minutes at Wembley, because his position involves less running and he should still be fit to play. Laurent Koscielny could replace Thomas Vermaelen and return to the side alongside the German. Arsenal's defensive record when the Mertesacker and Koscielny play together at the Emirates is superb. Carl Jenkinson and Kieran Gibbs should start so Bacary Sagna and Nacho Monreal can rest.
The midfield isn't so easy. Mathieu Flamini will serve the 2nd of his 2-match suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Aaron Ramsey, who was out for nearly 4 months, played 110 minutes Saturday. Handing Ramsey another start on such short rest would seem foolish and risky. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mikel Arteta played the full 120 at Wembley. They probably shouldn't start either. Jack Wilshere is out injured as well, meaning 5 of our best central midfielders are (or should be) ruled out of the starting lineup.
It might be time for Kim Kallstrom's first start. He is certainly the most fresh of our midfielders, after playing just 10 minutes at Wembley. But who will play alongside him?
My best guess would be Isaac Hayden. Hayden has played a couple times for the first team in his Arsenal career, and has featured heavily for the Arsenal U-21s in the last two seasons. Hayden did not play in the U-21s 4-0 loss to Leicester yesterday, suggesting he will at least be in the squad tonight. Hayden is known for his versatility and defensive ability, as the tough-tackling player can double as a defender. Without other credible options available, Hayden could be in line to play tonight.
The attacking positions aren't much easier to pick. Lukas Podolski was subbed out at Wembley, and thererfore should start again. Olivier Giroud should come in for Yaya Sanogo. Santi Cazorla played all 120 minutes as well and Cazorla should also be rested. Mesut Ozil is still out injured. As Thomas Eisfeld played for the U-21s yesterday, he likely will not feature either. That leaves Tomas Rosicky, who will need to pass a late fitness test. There are simply no other options to replace Cazorla in the #10 role.
The right wing is even harder to predict. The Ox put in a full shift on the right wing at Wembley, and is unlikely to start there again tonight. Serge Gnabry is reportedly still out injured, and obviously Theo Walcott is still recovering from his torn ACL and cannot play.
That leaves very few options, but my best guess would be another youth player, Hector Bellerin. Bellerin's natural position is right full-back, but he has strong attacking qualities. Gianfranco Zola loaned Bellerin to Watford earlier this season to play as a wing-back in a different system. But Zola was sacked, and Watford's new manager wasn't as keen on the young Spaniard, so Bellerin was recalled to Arsenal. Bellerin has been on the bench for the last few matches, and it may be time for his first Premier League start.
Arsene Wenger faces the dilemma of picking a fatigued team or an inexperienced one. Personally, I hope he chooses the latter. There are 6 crucial matches remaining this season and further injury problems need to be avoided at all costs. Fatigued players are more likely to be injured.
In addition, a fatigued team could potentially be overrun by West Ham. The Hammers have not played in 9 days. In Rosicky, Giroud, and Podolski the Gunners should still have enough firepower to score goals. And if Koscielny returns to the back line, Arsenal should be more solid defensively. A team with Hayden in midfield and Bellerin on the right wing should still be enough to win this game tonight.
Regardless of the team selection, the players will need to take momentum from the positive result at Wembley and win tonight or else risk falling further behind Everton in the race for 4th place. Full review to come on the blog tomorrow.
The problem is, I have absolutely no clue who will be fit to play tonight.
The backline should be fairly easy. Wojciech Szczesny should start in goal. Per Mertesacker should keep his place despite playing 120 minutes at Wembley, because his position involves less running and he should still be fit to play. Laurent Koscielny could replace Thomas Vermaelen and return to the side alongside the German. Arsenal's defensive record when the Mertesacker and Koscielny play together at the Emirates is superb. Carl Jenkinson and Kieran Gibbs should start so Bacary Sagna and Nacho Monreal can rest.
The midfield isn't so easy. Mathieu Flamini will serve the 2nd of his 2-match suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Aaron Ramsey, who was out for nearly 4 months, played 110 minutes Saturday. Handing Ramsey another start on such short rest would seem foolish and risky. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mikel Arteta played the full 120 at Wembley. They probably shouldn't start either. Jack Wilshere is out injured as well, meaning 5 of our best central midfielders are (or should be) ruled out of the starting lineup.
It might be time for Kim Kallstrom's first start. He is certainly the most fresh of our midfielders, after playing just 10 minutes at Wembley. But who will play alongside him?
My best guess would be Isaac Hayden. Hayden has played a couple times for the first team in his Arsenal career, and has featured heavily for the Arsenal U-21s in the last two seasons. Hayden did not play in the U-21s 4-0 loss to Leicester yesterday, suggesting he will at least be in the squad tonight. Hayden is known for his versatility and defensive ability, as the tough-tackling player can double as a defender. Without other credible options available, Hayden could be in line to play tonight.
The attacking positions aren't much easier to pick. Lukas Podolski was subbed out at Wembley, and thererfore should start again. Olivier Giroud should come in for Yaya Sanogo. Santi Cazorla played all 120 minutes as well and Cazorla should also be rested. Mesut Ozil is still out injured. As Thomas Eisfeld played for the U-21s yesterday, he likely will not feature either. That leaves Tomas Rosicky, who will need to pass a late fitness test. There are simply no other options to replace Cazorla in the #10 role.
The right wing is even harder to predict. The Ox put in a full shift on the right wing at Wembley, and is unlikely to start there again tonight. Serge Gnabry is reportedly still out injured, and obviously Theo Walcott is still recovering from his torn ACL and cannot play.
That leaves very few options, but my best guess would be another youth player, Hector Bellerin. Bellerin's natural position is right full-back, but he has strong attacking qualities. Gianfranco Zola loaned Bellerin to Watford earlier this season to play as a wing-back in a different system. But Zola was sacked, and Watford's new manager wasn't as keen on the young Spaniard, so Bellerin was recalled to Arsenal. Bellerin has been on the bench for the last few matches, and it may be time for his first Premier League start.
Arsene Wenger faces the dilemma of picking a fatigued team or an inexperienced one. Personally, I hope he chooses the latter. There are 6 crucial matches remaining this season and further injury problems need to be avoided at all costs. Fatigued players are more likely to be injured.
In addition, a fatigued team could potentially be overrun by West Ham. The Hammers have not played in 9 days. In Rosicky, Giroud, and Podolski the Gunners should still have enough firepower to score goals. And if Koscielny returns to the back line, Arsenal should be more solid defensively. A team with Hayden in midfield and Bellerin on the right wing should still be enough to win this game tonight.
Regardless of the team selection, the players will need to take momentum from the positive result at Wembley and win tonight or else risk falling further behind Everton in the race for 4th place. Full review to come on the blog tomorrow.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Weekend Review: EPL + FA Cup
Weekends like this are what English soccer is all about.
EPL
The Premier League relegation race got much tighter, while the leaders from Liverpool separated from their chasers.
Crystal Palace secured their 3rd successive victory over Aston Villa, who look in serious danger now. Fulham also kept their momentum rolling after beating Norwich. Cardiff secured an unlikely 3 points at Southampton to keep their survival hopes alive. West Brom, the masters of the Premier League draw, managed to snatch another from the jaws of victory after going 3-nil up in the first 30 minutes against Tottenham. And a Wes Brown own goal probably put the final nail in Sunderland's coffin at the bottom of the league.
Combine these results with Chelsea's 1-nil victory over Swansea today and the bottom of the table looks like this:
14. Aston Villa - 33 Played - 34 Points
15. Swansea - 34 Played - 33 Points
16. West Brom - 33 Played - 33 Points
17. Norwich - 34 Played - 32 Points
18. Fulham - 34 Played - 30 Points
19. Cardiff - 34 Played - 29 Points
20. Sunderland - 32 Played - 25 Points
Norwich's remaining matches are all against teams in the top 7. They look almost as doomed as Sunderland. But Swansea, West Brom, and Villa should all be looking over their shoulders nervously as well. As I mentioned on last week's relegation rundown, both Fulham and Cardiff have favorable schedules remaining against mid-table clubs with little to play for.
Liverpool's 3-2 home victory over Man City has put them 7 points ahead of the Citizens, meaning City could win their remaining two games in hand and still not catch the Reds.
Luis Suarez was booked in the first five minutes, and then proceeded to out-muscle two City defenders and assist Raheem Sterling's opener. Perhaps that gives Suarez too much credit, however. Sterling showed remarkable composure and trickery to catch both Vincent Kompany and Joe Hart leaning the wrong direction and take the lead. Suarez's pass put Sterling in a great position, but Sterling did remarkably well to finish the chance.
Brendan Rogers tweaked his formation and played a 4-3-1-2, giving Sterling a free role behind the two strikers. When Suarez or Sturridge dropped deeper to get the ball, Sterling made run after run in behind the defense, and the City midfield struggled to track back and mark him. It worked incredibly well in the first half. Liverpool created numerous chances and eventually doubled their lead on a corner.
City lost Yaya Toure to injury in the first half, and they were creating very little. Gael Clichy in particular had a terrible half, as he was shrugged off by Suarez in the buildup to the first goal and failed to mark Martin Skrtel on the 2nd. Edin Dzeko probably should have won a penalty after the Bosnian jumped over a Sakho tackle aimed at Dzeko's knees, but the referee called goal kick. At halftime it looked like there could only be one winner. That feeling faded quickly.
James Milner subbed in for Jesus Navas, who struggled to deal with the physicality of the occasion in the first half. Milner made an instant impact, constantly combining with the consistently excellent David Silva to run circles around young John Flanagan and they put the Liverpool defense under constant pressure. Silva scored the first City goal and created the second in a five minute stretch. All of a sudden, it was game on with 30 minutes remaining.
The match got very testy. Suarez was lucky not to be sent off with a second yellow as he flailed to the ground and the referee refused to call a foul. He quite clearly dived, and was lucky to stay on the pitch. Flanagan also got away with some rough challenges in the Liverpool penalty area. Daniel Sturridge was injured and Joe Allen subbed in, hurting Liverpool's attack. City looked the more likely team to win all of a sudden. They brought on Sergio Aguero to finish the job.
And all of a sudden Liverpool took the lead again.
A Liverpool long throw was hurled into the City box and flicked toward Vincent Kompany. Kompany's clearance was terrible, slicing off his foot. Coutinho calmly finished and the Reds secured 3 points.
The referee did quite rightly send off Jordan Henderson for a studs-up challenge late in stoppage time. But then he missed a clear Skrtel handball on City's last possession. It seemed as if the Anfield crowd got the best of the referee today. Liverpool got a majority of the decisions their way.
But give Liverpool some credit, too. Liverpool's dominance in the 1st half should have led to more than just 2 goals. The Reds' ridiculous form continues; they've now taken 34 points from their last 12 matches. Title-winning form in the business end of the season.
City was by far the better team in the 2nd half, and now will have to hope that Liverpool drops points to keep their title dreams alive. That could be much more likely now that Henderson faces a 3-match ban, and will miss the Chelsea match as a result.
Plenty of drama remains at both the top and bottom of the league in the final month.
FA CUP
Lower-league clubs took the lead at Wembley in both semi-finals, only for their Premier League opponents to overcome those deficits and clinch their places in the final.
Hull won in a wide-open 5-3 match after falling behind twice in the first half. Sheffield United got the opener through Jose Baxter, and took the lead once again just minutes after Hull equalized.
Steve Bruce brought on a second striker in the second half, and the Blades struggled mightily to deal with the tactical change. Hull took a 4-2 lead fairly early in the 2nd half, but Sheffield United scored in the 89th minute to put the pressure back on the Tigers. The referee curiously called for just 3 minutes of stoppage time in what was, at that point, a 4-goal half. And David Meyler clinched the match for Hull as Sheffield pushed forward looking for an equalizer.
Hull will face Arsenal in the final. The Gunners went through on penalties after Per Mertesacker made up for his giving away a penalty by scoring the equalizer off a scuffed shot by the excellent Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Lukasz Fabianski has put in some very impressive performances for Arsenal in limited duty this season. He was fantastic in the earlier cup matches against Tottenham, Liverpool, and Everton. He also did remarkably well filling in for Wojcech Szczesny in the Champions League against Bayern after Szczesny was sent off in the 1st leg and suspended for the 2nd.
Yesterday was no different for the oldest of Arsenal's 2 Pole-keepers. Fabianski saved the first two penalties, putting Arsenal in a fantastic position. Mikel Arteta, Kim Kallstrom, Olivier Giroud, and Santi Cazorla all calmly slotted in their penalties to win it like the experienced professionals they are.
In what has been an excruciating spring, the penalty victory brings much needed relief to Arsenal supporters, players, and the manager. Hopefully we can take momentum from this to kick on and put real pressure on Everton in the race for 4th place.
It won't be easy. Everton is flying at the moment. And the Arsenal team does still look fatigued and lacking a cutting edge in attack. We play West Ham in midweek on very short rest after playing 120 minutes at Wembley, and the Hammers will be very well rested after sitting out this weekend.
But with Ramsey and Gibbs back and Koscielny and Ozil reportedly close to rejoining the team, Arsenal may be getting fit at just the right time to pull off a 17th consecutive qualification for Europe's top competition.
Friday, April 11, 2014
EPL Weekend Preview
After looking ahead to the FA Cup yesterday, today I'll preview three of the most important weekend fixtures in the Premier League. The title race and relegation battle could possibly be decided in the next two days.
Fulham v Norwich
In last Saturday's relegation rundown, I looked ahead to Norwich's trip to Fulham as their best chance to win any points before the season is over, as the Canaries play Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their last 4. And then manager Chris Hughton was sacked on Sunday.
Hughton's sacking was bizarre. It seems Norwich is already consigned to relegation. And Fulham can move to within 2 points of Norwich with a victory tomorrow. I expect Norwich to sit deep and try to catch Fulham on the counter.
There is as much optimism at Craven Cottage as there is pessimism at Carrow Road. I can only see one team winning this: Fulham.
Sunderland v Everton
The Black Cats were abysmal at Spurs on Monday. After pouncing on an early Spurs error to take an unlikely lead, Sunderland capitulated defensively and got their marking all wrong for a series of Christian Eriksen crosses. Spurs ended up winning 5-1.
Sunderland sits at the bottom of the table but has two games in hand, although it is hard to see them winning those extra matches in their current form. The ship has to be turned around, immediately, if Sunderland can make up enough ground to stay up.
Everton is coming off a very impressive home victory against Arsenal last Sunday. The Toffees have 4th place in their own hands. Win out and the Champions League spot is their's. Everton has much more difficult matches ahead in their remaining schedule, and they play 3 in the next week. Everton has a midweek matchup with Crystal Palace before taking on David Moyes at Goodison next Sunday. Therefore I would expect Martinez to rotate his team and rest a few of his better players at the Stadium of Light. Perhaps a weakened team can be beaten by Sunderland, but I doubt it. Everton should win this.
Liverpool v Man City
This head-to-head matchup of the title favorites could easily decide who ends up champions a month from now. City is four points behind the leaders but has two games in hand. They simply need to draw to keep their 4 point advantage. If Liverpool can win, however, They will move 7 points ahead of City, meaning City could win their two extra matches and still not catch the Reds.
Liverpool is the in-form team in the league, taking an astounding 31 points from their last 11 matches. They havent dropped any points at Anfield since a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on January 18th. City will have to be at their best to keep control of their Premier League destiny.
City has the talent to do this. By most accounts, City have the strongest team in the league. They beat Liverpool 2-1 at the Etihad on Boxing Day, but the stakes were much lower in that match, and Liverpool wasn't playing this well.
Normally I would side with the better manager in such a crucial match, but both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rogers have never faced this type of pressure in their careers. Pellegrini has never won a European league, his last title came with River Plate in Argentina in 2002. Rogers has never been in the top 4, let alone faced the pressure of a title run-in. Therefore, if I had to predict a result, I would pick a draw.
I will be traveling all day tomorrow so I won't be able to post to the blog until Sunday. Expect a full review of all of this weekend's EPL and FA Cup matches on Sunday afternoon.
Fulham v Norwich
In last Saturday's relegation rundown, I looked ahead to Norwich's trip to Fulham as their best chance to win any points before the season is over, as the Canaries play Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their last 4. And then manager Chris Hughton was sacked on Sunday.
Hughton's sacking was bizarre. It seems Norwich is already consigned to relegation. And Fulham can move to within 2 points of Norwich with a victory tomorrow. I expect Norwich to sit deep and try to catch Fulham on the counter.
There is as much optimism at Craven Cottage as there is pessimism at Carrow Road. I can only see one team winning this: Fulham.
Sunderland v Everton
The Black Cats were abysmal at Spurs on Monday. After pouncing on an early Spurs error to take an unlikely lead, Sunderland capitulated defensively and got their marking all wrong for a series of Christian Eriksen crosses. Spurs ended up winning 5-1.
Sunderland sits at the bottom of the table but has two games in hand, although it is hard to see them winning those extra matches in their current form. The ship has to be turned around, immediately, if Sunderland can make up enough ground to stay up.
Everton is coming off a very impressive home victory against Arsenal last Sunday. The Toffees have 4th place in their own hands. Win out and the Champions League spot is their's. Everton has much more difficult matches ahead in their remaining schedule, and they play 3 in the next week. Everton has a midweek matchup with Crystal Palace before taking on David Moyes at Goodison next Sunday. Therefore I would expect Martinez to rotate his team and rest a few of his better players at the Stadium of Light. Perhaps a weakened team can be beaten by Sunderland, but I doubt it. Everton should win this.
Liverpool v Man City
This head-to-head matchup of the title favorites could easily decide who ends up champions a month from now. City is four points behind the leaders but has two games in hand. They simply need to draw to keep their 4 point advantage. If Liverpool can win, however, They will move 7 points ahead of City, meaning City could win their two extra matches and still not catch the Reds.
Liverpool is the in-form team in the league, taking an astounding 31 points from their last 11 matches. They havent dropped any points at Anfield since a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on January 18th. City will have to be at their best to keep control of their Premier League destiny.
City has the talent to do this. By most accounts, City have the strongest team in the league. They beat Liverpool 2-1 at the Etihad on Boxing Day, but the stakes were much lower in that match, and Liverpool wasn't playing this well.
Normally I would side with the better manager in such a crucial match, but both Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rogers have never faced this type of pressure in their careers. Pellegrini has never won a European league, his last title came with River Plate in Argentina in 2002. Rogers has never been in the top 4, let alone faced the pressure of a title run-in. Therefore, if I had to predict a result, I would pick a draw.
I will be traveling all day tomorrow so I won't be able to post to the blog until Sunday. Expect a full review of all of this weekend's EPL and FA Cup matches on Sunday afternoon.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
FA Cup Scouting Report: Wigan Athletic + Thoughts on Wenger
Arsenal gears up for the club's first match at Wembley since Carling Cup Final disappointment against Birmingham City in 2011. The Gunners' FA Cup Semi Final opponent are the current cup holders, Wigan Athletic.
Last year was bittersweet for Wigan. Their FA Cup victory was dampened by their relegation from the Premier League. This specific combination of success and failure has presented Wigan with a interesting set of challenges this season.
The FA Cup holders qualify automatically for the Europa League and the 6 extra matches that come with that. The Championship also has 24 clubs, not 20, and there are 8 more matches per season in the Championship than in the Premier League. As a result, the Championship is a very difficult competition to win without a large squad. The season starts earlier in the summer, leaving less time to prepare in the pre-season. Combine that with midweek trips to Slovenia and Russia, and its clear Wigan wouldn't have as much time to train and prepare for matches as they were used to in the EPL.
The time on the training ground was always going to be important because Wigan's squad started a serious transition. Several Wigan players--such as Arouna Kone, Antolin Alcaraz, Maynor Figueroa, and James McCarthy--left the club. The Latics faced a daunting fixture list with 14 more fixtures than last season while losing a significant amount of depth. Getting back up to the Premier League was always going to be difficult.
On top of that, manager Roberto Martinez left the club to replace David Moyes at Everton. Wigan replaced him with Owen Coyle. Coyle struggled to juggle the additional fixtures with Wigan's lack of depth. After three consecutive home losses, Coyle was sacked on December 2nd.
Coyle had only won 6 Championship matches on December 2nd. The Latics had drawn 4, and lost 6. Coyle's team was distinctly average. They were 14th in the Championship, they were going out of the Europa League in the group stage, and they were killed 5-0 at Manchester City in the Capital One Cup. Coyle's team looked lost. The difficulties of the fixture list seemed to be too much for the Scot to handle. When Coyle's team conceded 3 easy goals at home against Derby County, that was his kiss of death.
In stepped Uwe Rosler. And Wigan's fortunes changed straight away.
Wigan has won 13 Championship matches since sacking Coyle. They have drawn 5 and lost only 7. Wigan has been much better under Rosler, taking 44 points of the 75 available (59%) after taking just 22 of 48 (46%) under Coyle. The results have showed this. They have risen from 14th to 5th in the Championship. Their EPL dream is back on.
But perhaps Rosler's Wigan has been most impressive in the FA Cup. After needing a replay in Milton Keynes to beat MK Dons in Round 3, Wigan has beaten 3 consecutive Premier League opponents to reach Wembley for the second straight year. Wigan beat Crystal Palace and Cardiff before going into a quarterfinal at the Etihad for a rematch of last year's final. The Latics beat City 2-nil.
Rosler has fixed the defensive problems that cost Coyle his job; problems that existed even under Martinez in the Premier League. Wigan now has the 4th best defense in the Championship.
Leon Barnett, Emmerson Boyce, and James Perch all bring Premiership experience to the Wigan back-line. James McArthur is a box-to-box midfielder with excellent stamina, and FA Cup hero Ben Watson adds defensive backbone to the Wigan midfield. Wigan can struggle to score goals, but Manchester United loanee Nick Powell is the team's leading scorer with 7 goals. Jordi Gomez, Marc-Antoine Fortune, James McClean, and Callum McManaman also bring attacking ability and Premier League experience.
Make no mistake, Wigan fields a team of Premier League cast-offs and misfits. There is a reason these players have Premier League experience. Perhaps the exceptions are Powell and McManaman, but these players cannot match the quality Arsenal has in their locker--even with so many players out injured.
However, Rosler seems to be getting the maximum in FA Cup matches. It would be a real mistake to take Wigan lightly. They have beaten 3 straight Premier League opponents, two of which away from home, to get back to Wembley. Rosler has stressed that the pressure is completely on Arsenal to win the game, and that his team has nothing to lose. If Wigan takes that mindset and plays as well as they did at the Etihad a month ago, they can beat anyone.
Arsenal will need to be much better than how they've played currently to beat Wigan on Saturday.
On a separate note, a few have asked why I haven't participated in the "Wenger: should he stay or go" discussion that has been flying around the Arsenal blogosphere the last few days.
Believe me, I was furious after the Everton defeat and I wanted to post my angry reactions. I understand completely why people chose to question Wenger's ability after yet another bitterly disappointing defeat in which Arsenal was (and I saw this on nearly every post I found) "out-fought and out-thought" by Martinez'z Everton. I planned on writing something similar.
But I knew I needed to calm down. I knew that as big a match last Sunday's match at Everton was, this week's match was bigger. I took some time and wrote about NCAA basketball instead, which helped my emotions cool off. I gained some needed perspective that only time could provide.
The bottom line is that major questions should be asked of Arsene Wenger. There is no doubt about that.
But not right now.
The season is not over yet.
For the first time in 5 years Arsenal still has a trophy to play for in April. I don't see any benefit in putting additional pressure on the manager and our players like many have all week. I'm not saying I disagree with the opinions being shared; in fact I agree with most of them. I just don't see any possible benefit in sharing them right now, because there is still so much left to play for. And this team obviously struggles to deal with additional pressure.
The best example is how poorly we played on Wenger's 1,000th career match after a week of media conversation about Wenger and his place in history. These players quite clearly can't handle the pressure of playing for their manager's legacy. There hasn't been a worse performance all season than at Stamford Bridge. Out of the match in 15 minutes. That's how we responded to this kind of pressure before.
I don't see any benefit in ramping up that pressure again by keeping the Wenger conversation going all week. The reactions on Sunday and Monday made sense, but after that, it all seems unnecessary and self-defeating. The players don't need to be reminded. I can't see them improving their efforts to make sure Wenger's legacy ends on a high note. I can only see a repeat of the recent massacres at Stamford Bridge and Goodison, when the pressure has been at its highest.
The fact is, this Saturday is the biggest game since the Cup Final in 2011. This cup (because of the lack of quality opposition remaining) presents a great chance of finally ending the trophy drought. We are the overwhelming favorites. We simply need to finish the job.
That trophy is all our players need to be focused on right now. Wigan is a tough opponent. They need to be focused on Wigan and not how each remaining match will write the ending to Arsene Wenger's book. When there are no more trophies left to play for, let the manager come under scrutiny.
But not right now.
Last year was bittersweet for Wigan. Their FA Cup victory was dampened by their relegation from the Premier League. This specific combination of success and failure has presented Wigan with a interesting set of challenges this season.
The FA Cup holders qualify automatically for the Europa League and the 6 extra matches that come with that. The Championship also has 24 clubs, not 20, and there are 8 more matches per season in the Championship than in the Premier League. As a result, the Championship is a very difficult competition to win without a large squad. The season starts earlier in the summer, leaving less time to prepare in the pre-season. Combine that with midweek trips to Slovenia and Russia, and its clear Wigan wouldn't have as much time to train and prepare for matches as they were used to in the EPL.
The time on the training ground was always going to be important because Wigan's squad started a serious transition. Several Wigan players--such as Arouna Kone, Antolin Alcaraz, Maynor Figueroa, and James McCarthy--left the club. The Latics faced a daunting fixture list with 14 more fixtures than last season while losing a significant amount of depth. Getting back up to the Premier League was always going to be difficult.
On top of that, manager Roberto Martinez left the club to replace David Moyes at Everton. Wigan replaced him with Owen Coyle. Coyle struggled to juggle the additional fixtures with Wigan's lack of depth. After three consecutive home losses, Coyle was sacked on December 2nd.
Coyle had only won 6 Championship matches on December 2nd. The Latics had drawn 4, and lost 6. Coyle's team was distinctly average. They were 14th in the Championship, they were going out of the Europa League in the group stage, and they were killed 5-0 at Manchester City in the Capital One Cup. Coyle's team looked lost. The difficulties of the fixture list seemed to be too much for the Scot to handle. When Coyle's team conceded 3 easy goals at home against Derby County, that was his kiss of death.
In stepped Uwe Rosler. And Wigan's fortunes changed straight away.
Wigan has won 13 Championship matches since sacking Coyle. They have drawn 5 and lost only 7. Wigan has been much better under Rosler, taking 44 points of the 75 available (59%) after taking just 22 of 48 (46%) under Coyle. The results have showed this. They have risen from 14th to 5th in the Championship. Their EPL dream is back on.
But perhaps Rosler's Wigan has been most impressive in the FA Cup. After needing a replay in Milton Keynes to beat MK Dons in Round 3, Wigan has beaten 3 consecutive Premier League opponents to reach Wembley for the second straight year. Wigan beat Crystal Palace and Cardiff before going into a quarterfinal at the Etihad for a rematch of last year's final. The Latics beat City 2-nil.
Rosler has fixed the defensive problems that cost Coyle his job; problems that existed even under Martinez in the Premier League. Wigan now has the 4th best defense in the Championship.
Leon Barnett, Emmerson Boyce, and James Perch all bring Premiership experience to the Wigan back-line. James McArthur is a box-to-box midfielder with excellent stamina, and FA Cup hero Ben Watson adds defensive backbone to the Wigan midfield. Wigan can struggle to score goals, but Manchester United loanee Nick Powell is the team's leading scorer with 7 goals. Jordi Gomez, Marc-Antoine Fortune, James McClean, and Callum McManaman also bring attacking ability and Premier League experience.
Make no mistake, Wigan fields a team of Premier League cast-offs and misfits. There is a reason these players have Premier League experience. Perhaps the exceptions are Powell and McManaman, but these players cannot match the quality Arsenal has in their locker--even with so many players out injured.
However, Rosler seems to be getting the maximum in FA Cup matches. It would be a real mistake to take Wigan lightly. They have beaten 3 straight Premier League opponents, two of which away from home, to get back to Wembley. Rosler has stressed that the pressure is completely on Arsenal to win the game, and that his team has nothing to lose. If Wigan takes that mindset and plays as well as they did at the Etihad a month ago, they can beat anyone.
Arsenal will need to be much better than how they've played currently to beat Wigan on Saturday.
On a separate note, a few have asked why I haven't participated in the "Wenger: should he stay or go" discussion that has been flying around the Arsenal blogosphere the last few days.
Believe me, I was furious after the Everton defeat and I wanted to post my angry reactions. I understand completely why people chose to question Wenger's ability after yet another bitterly disappointing defeat in which Arsenal was (and I saw this on nearly every post I found) "out-fought and out-thought" by Martinez'z Everton. I planned on writing something similar.
But I knew I needed to calm down. I knew that as big a match last Sunday's match at Everton was, this week's match was bigger. I took some time and wrote about NCAA basketball instead, which helped my emotions cool off. I gained some needed perspective that only time could provide.
The bottom line is that major questions should be asked of Arsene Wenger. There is no doubt about that.
But not right now.
The season is not over yet.
For the first time in 5 years Arsenal still has a trophy to play for in April. I don't see any benefit in putting additional pressure on the manager and our players like many have all week. I'm not saying I disagree with the opinions being shared; in fact I agree with most of them. I just don't see any possible benefit in sharing them right now, because there is still so much left to play for. And this team obviously struggles to deal with additional pressure.
The best example is how poorly we played on Wenger's 1,000th career match after a week of media conversation about Wenger and his place in history. These players quite clearly can't handle the pressure of playing for their manager's legacy. There hasn't been a worse performance all season than at Stamford Bridge. Out of the match in 15 minutes. That's how we responded to this kind of pressure before.
I don't see any benefit in ramping up that pressure again by keeping the Wenger conversation going all week. The reactions on Sunday and Monday made sense, but after that, it all seems unnecessary and self-defeating. The players don't need to be reminded. I can't see them improving their efforts to make sure Wenger's legacy ends on a high note. I can only see a repeat of the recent massacres at Stamford Bridge and Goodison, when the pressure has been at its highest.
The fact is, this Saturday is the biggest game since the Cup Final in 2011. This cup (because of the lack of quality opposition remaining) presents a great chance of finally ending the trophy drought. We are the overwhelming favorites. We simply need to finish the job.
That trophy is all our players need to be focused on right now. Wigan is a tough opponent. They need to be focused on Wigan and not how each remaining match will write the ending to Arsene Wenger's book. When there are no more trophies left to play for, let the manager come under scrutiny.
But not right now.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
World's Best Make Champions League Semis, and Chelsea Does Too
Today the final spots in the UEFA Champions League Semi-Final were taken by Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich. Yesterday Real Madrid and Chelsea qualified in very exciting matches.
Here are my thoughts on the remaining 4 teams:
(in order of quality)
1. Bayern Munich
- Guardiola's team dominates possession and exerts full control over long stretches of matches by working hard to get the ball back within seconds of losing it. Manchester United tried to slow Bayern down by throwing the entire team behind the ball.
- United was able to take the lead in both legs, but Bayern was so resilient (or United was so mentally fragile, depending how you look at it) that Bayern equalized immediately.
- That Bayern was able to withstand the loss of their most defensive-minded midfielders (Schweinsteiger and Martinez) to win the tie was particularly impressive. But the remaining 3 teams will all pose a much bigger threat than United did (even Chelsea). United looks out of place at this level.
2. Atletico Madrid
- This year's "surprise" semifinalists are superior to their Galactico neighbors. Atletico dominated Barcelona at the Camp Nou, hitting the crossbar thee times after Koke scored what turned out to be the winning goal in the first 5 minutes.
- Atletico shouldn't be surprising anyone because they are first in La Liga. Koke and Diego Costa will probably start for Spain in the upcoming World Cup as well.
- Diego Simeone has built a real powerhouse club here. He might be on a few of the big clubs' wishlists this summer, but it will take a lot to convince Simeone to leave Atletico. Having played for Atletico for 6 seasons as a player, Simeone is enjoying his renaissance, and might not want to leave the club again any time soon.
3. Real Madrid
- Last night, Real was torn to shreds by Marco Reus. Reus scored 2 first half goals against Madrid to really scare the Galacticos, and if Henrik Mkhitaryan had scored instead of hitting the post after rounding Iker Casillas in the 2nd half, Madrid would have thrown away their 3-0 win in the first leg.
- Notably, Ronaldo was rested for last night's game. The Ballon d'Or winner clearly makes Madrid a better team. But not without controversy. Ronaldo has been jeered recently at the Bernabeau, as Madrid fans have grown tired of Ronaldo's selfishness. Some fans think Ronaldo puts his own numbers ahead of the club by failing to pass to teammates in better scoring positions and trying to shoot for goal himself instead.
- Madrid is currently 3rd in La Liga, and while they do have a very potent attack, the midfield and defense haven't been up to standard. Madrid looks beatable right now. Its hard to see how they could handle the Bayern or Atletico attacks. But Chelsea, that's another story.
4. Chelsea
- Chelsea was the only club to win their quarter-final via the away goals tie-braker. The away goal that won the tie was a penalty kick.
- The Blues caught a huge break in that PSG's best attacker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, was injured in the first leg. Without Ibrahimovic, PSG struggled to convert multiple chances to score away goals last night. Chelsea survived truly by the thinnest, and luckiest, of margins.
- Hazard was injured last night and might not be fit for the semi-finals. Chelsea cannot play Nemanja Matic, their next best player, in European competition. Chelsea's best striker is 33-year-old Samuel Eto'o. The players Chelsea has available simply aren't good enough to win this. Just like they weren't good enough in 2012 and...oh wait.
- But their manager is so fast! Jose Mourinho showed last night while he was sprinting down the touchline after Demba Ba's late winner that he is miles quicker than his captain and resident-racist: John Terry.
Here are my thoughts on the remaining 4 teams:
(in order of quality)
1. Bayern Munich
- Guardiola's team dominates possession and exerts full control over long stretches of matches by working hard to get the ball back within seconds of losing it. Manchester United tried to slow Bayern down by throwing the entire team behind the ball.
- United was able to take the lead in both legs, but Bayern was so resilient (or United was so mentally fragile, depending how you look at it) that Bayern equalized immediately.
- That Bayern was able to withstand the loss of their most defensive-minded midfielders (Schweinsteiger and Martinez) to win the tie was particularly impressive. But the remaining 3 teams will all pose a much bigger threat than United did (even Chelsea). United looks out of place at this level.
2. Atletico Madrid
- This year's "surprise" semifinalists are superior to their Galactico neighbors. Atletico dominated Barcelona at the Camp Nou, hitting the crossbar thee times after Koke scored what turned out to be the winning goal in the first 5 minutes.
- Atletico shouldn't be surprising anyone because they are first in La Liga. Koke and Diego Costa will probably start for Spain in the upcoming World Cup as well.
- Diego Simeone has built a real powerhouse club here. He might be on a few of the big clubs' wishlists this summer, but it will take a lot to convince Simeone to leave Atletico. Having played for Atletico for 6 seasons as a player, Simeone is enjoying his renaissance, and might not want to leave the club again any time soon.
3. Real Madrid
- Last night, Real was torn to shreds by Marco Reus. Reus scored 2 first half goals against Madrid to really scare the Galacticos, and if Henrik Mkhitaryan had scored instead of hitting the post after rounding Iker Casillas in the 2nd half, Madrid would have thrown away their 3-0 win in the first leg.
- Notably, Ronaldo was rested for last night's game. The Ballon d'Or winner clearly makes Madrid a better team. But not without controversy. Ronaldo has been jeered recently at the Bernabeau, as Madrid fans have grown tired of Ronaldo's selfishness. Some fans think Ronaldo puts his own numbers ahead of the club by failing to pass to teammates in better scoring positions and trying to shoot for goal himself instead.
- Madrid is currently 3rd in La Liga, and while they do have a very potent attack, the midfield and defense haven't been up to standard. Madrid looks beatable right now. Its hard to see how they could handle the Bayern or Atletico attacks. But Chelsea, that's another story.
4. Chelsea
- Chelsea was the only club to win their quarter-final via the away goals tie-braker. The away goal that won the tie was a penalty kick.
- The Blues caught a huge break in that PSG's best attacker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, was injured in the first leg. Without Ibrahimovic, PSG struggled to convert multiple chances to score away goals last night. Chelsea survived truly by the thinnest, and luckiest, of margins.
- Hazard was injured last night and might not be fit for the semi-finals. Chelsea cannot play Nemanja Matic, their next best player, in European competition. Chelsea's best striker is 33-year-old Samuel Eto'o. The players Chelsea has available simply aren't good enough to win this. Just like they weren't good enough in 2012 and...oh wait.
- But their manager is so fast! Jose Mourinho showed last night while he was sprinting down the touchline after Demba Ba's late winner that he is miles quicker than his captain and resident-racist: John Terry.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Hungry Huskies Win, NCAA Loses
Seconds after leading his school to its 4th NCAA
tournament victory in 15 years, Shabazz Napier grabbed the microphone and
addressed 80,000 people in AT&T Stadium:
“Ladies and gentlemen, you’re looking at the hungry Huskies! This is what happens when you ban us! Last year, two years, we worked so hard for it. Two years—“
At that point CBS acted swiftly to hide what they deemed to be Napier's criticism of the NCAA from their televised broadcast. CBS company-man/anchorman Jim Nantz grabbed the
microphone from Napier to tell him he had been named Tournament MVP, and
CBS cut to a commercial break.
CBS must have worried giving Napier a chance to air his school’s
grievances might jeopardize the network’s 11 year-$10.8 billion broadcasting contract with the NCAA.
This morning, numerous reports have labeled Napier’s 3
sentences “controversial,” but was it as controversial as the academic ban
Napier referred to?
In 2012, the NCAA handed UConn a 1-year postseason ban for failing to meet academic standards. What was once a 1-or-2 scholarship penalty swiftly turned into a much more serious punishment.
The NCAA changed the rules (or rather, the punishment for breaking the rules) mid-game, and UConn’s paid the price for what amounted to a retroactive punishment for conduct that never had been judged so harshly. UConn players who had done everything right were punished harshly for the actions of a few players who came and left the program before they ever arrived.
Why is this the first time you've heard about the NCAA's retroactive punishment?
CBS is a major partner with Turner Broadcasting in the NCAA Tournament. Turner
controls Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com. As mentioned earlier, CBS/Turner’s
exclusive broadcasting contract cost nearly $11 billion
and will last until 2025.
ESPN also has a $500 million broadcasting contract for regular
season and NIT basketball games that also lasts until 2025.
The
unfairness of UConn’s postseason ban was largely swept under the rug because
the two major American sports “journalism” outlets had a major stake in
protecting and promoting the best interests of the NCAA.
How exactly did the NCAA change the punishment on UConn?
The NCAA uses an Academic Performance Rate (APR) to evaluate
whether a specific program complies with academic standards. The rate is fairly
simple to explain. Each school must keep over 92.5% their scholarship players
academically eligible over a 2-year period, and 90% over a 4-year period.
A player can leave a school early to play professionally,
but must be in good academic standing at the time of dropping out in order to
help the program’s APR and not hurt it.
First of all, the system in itself slants against basketball and for football. NCAA basketball players must be enrolled
in both the fall and spring semesters in order to participate. NCAA football
players only must be enrolled in the fall. Basketball players have to juggle
academic and athletic commitments over two semesters, not just one.
In addition, football players can drop out before the
spring semester in order to prepare for the NFL draft and their programs’ don’t
feel nearly the same consequences as basketball players. Basketball players are forced to
decide whether to complete a spring semester at a school they plan to leave or improve
their skills in the gym to impress their future employer.
At the end of the day, isn't college supposed to be about
developing students into professionals?
The NBA draft is nothing more than a
job offer to a college student. Should a school’s computer science department
be penalized if its best students drop out to take jobs at Google? If an NBA
team wants to give a college athlete a professional contract, why should the
NCAA punish the program that helped that athlete develop into a professional?
Was the NCAA trying to act in its athletes’ best
interests with this? Or were they maintaining the appearance of academia and rebuilding their case that basketball
players are “student-athletes,” and not employees?
Anyway, I’m getting sidetracked. Back to the injustices
of the APR as it applies to college basketball in general, and UConn in
particular.
The lower numbers of scholarships allowed on a college
basketball team mean one or two bad students are very hard to recover from. Football
teams are allowed 85 scholarship players. Basketball teams are allowed 13.
A football team can have 13 academically-ineligible athletes (equivalent
to an entire basketball roster) and have the same rate as a basketball team
with 2 guys out.
This makes it extremely difficult for basketball programs
to recover from a couple players who decided not to take their academic
commitments seriously. APR is measured
over 2 and 4 year increments, which is not enough time for a program with a bad
academic year to recover.
For example, for the sake of easy math, let’s say men’s
basketball had the same scholarship limit as women’s basketball—15.
One year X
team had 15 scholarship players. 11 finished the year in good academic standing.
Another left school early to go to the NBA but took his May finals and left in
good academic standing.
2 are academically ineligible but still in school,
trying to get their grades up. 1 more left school without taking his finals in
pursuit of the NBA. The program gets credit for 12 of the 15 players and
scores an academic progress rate of 80%.
That rate is multiplied by 1,000 to get the 3-digit score
the NCAA uses to evaluate academic progress. So in the above example, X team would
have an APR of 800.
Even if X team keeps all of its players in good
academic standing the next year, the two year rate
would still be 27/30 or 90%, bringing their score up to just 900.
NCAA guidelines set the minimum 2-year APR at 925 and 4-year
minimum at 900. But before 2012, failure to comply with these guidelines simply
meant programs would lose one or two scholarships until the APR rose to an
acceptable rate. The penalty changed
drastically in 2012, but the NCAA still used academic numbers from 2009, 2010,
and 2011 (when the punishment was far less severe) to get a 2012 APR score.
UConn had a bad academic season in 2009/10. The Huskies' APR was 826.
In 2010/11, however, the Huskies excelled in both the classroom and on the
court, winning the national championship and scoring an APR of 978.
Despite this significant improvement, UConn’s 2-year APR
was just 902, 23 points below the NCAA’s minimum. The NCAA suspended UConn from
2012/13 postseason play as punishment.
Shabazz Napier's freshman year began in 2010. No player on the current UConn team played with the "bad apples" of 2009. And when he signed to play for UConn, the punishment for such a low APR was not nearly as severe. He and his teammates had every right to feel hard-done-by.
Napier's team
was unfairly punished. And he stuck with UConn through the bad times. A
champion in his freshman year, perhaps no single player faced more adversity
during his time in school. No player has ever faced a bigger temptation to
leave a school behind and go pro. But Napier stuck through it all. And he
brought his team back to the top on his way out the door.
Frankly, I wish Napier had been given more time to speak. I wanted to hear everything he had to say.
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