This World Cup has been amazing. One of the most entertaining tournaments I can remember. Except when Greece is playing.
Spain Out
The biggest story so far is that after 1 week, Spain has been eliminated. The cup holders and winners of the past 2 European Championships got outscored 7-1 in their first two matches against Holland adn Chile.
The Spanish players looked old, tired, and complacent. Diego Costa looked unfit and clueless and the rest of the team looked like they had no idea how to play with him. Xabi Alonso and Sergi Busquets were awful as the shield in front of a defense that suddenly looks very average without Puyol. Sergio Ramos lost his concentration frequently, Jordi Alba was awful, and Iker Casillas faces competition from the Russian Igor Akinfeev (Fabio Capello's Robert Green 2.0) for worst goalkeeper in the tournament. Spain was dreadful.
Perhaps some of that had to do with tactics. Spain played two different teams who play with 3 center backs. Mexico, Chile, Holland, Costa Rica, and Argentina all deploy 3. Their record in the tournament so far? 7 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses.
Think back to the FA Cup Final against Hull. Olivier Giroud struggled mightily in the first half as the lone striker against Hull's 3 central defenders. Arsenal brought Sanogo on to be a second striker and finally took control of the game.
The 4-2-3-1 Spain has made famous for 6 years might have finally been found out.
England Nearly Out as Well
What formation did England play?
Two 2-1 losses means England is hanging on to the tournament by a thread. If Costa Rica can get something against Italy tomorrow, the Three Lions will be eliminated.
I don't get how this is a surprise to anyone. After not even qualifying for Euro 2008, England was extremely average in a very favorable group in 2010, only beating Slovenia, and not much better in Euro 2012.
England's best player has been Leighton Baines. That says it all really.
The team was built around 5 Liverpool players, the most ever by any one club for England at a World Cup. This was understandable, as the 5 combined to lose 0 European matches all season.
Gerrard and Henderson, the "shield" protecting Liverpool's defense all season, were asked to do the same job for England. Which made sense because Liverpool conceded 50 goals in the league this year. The 8th best defensive record in the league. Top half!
Gerrard, the captain, has been England's worst player. He's useless. He can't run, tackle, win the ball in the air, or even pass the ball well anymore. He can always find Suarez in dangerous positions, though.
I can't help but think the team missed Theo Walcott. Danny Welbeck is not a winger. Walcott (or even Oxlade-Chamberlain) would have improved this team immensely. Someone who knew how to keep spacing and make intelligent runs off the ball.
Wayne Rooney has been poor yet again. He hasn't played well for 3 years. He's the most overrated player in the world. I don't expect him to play much for Louis Van Gaal.
Rooney can't play as a lone striker or as a winger, and when in his favored #10 role he struggles to finish or create chances for his teammates like he did when he was 20. England was better against Italy, with Sterling in the middle and Rooney on the left wing, than they were today--but even in the Italy match Italy exploited England's left hand side ruthlessly because Rooney was taken to school by Torino right back Marco Darmian earning just his second cap.
Daniel Sturridge scored a lot of goals this year, goals set up by Luis Suarez. England needed Rooney to play like Suarez, too. But Rooney plays like a Greek.
Waynios Hairplugopolous.
In my opinion, England's best formation would have been a 4-3-1-2 (which Liverpool used frequently this year with great success) adding a third cental midfielder (Wilshere or Barkley) to make up for Gerrard's lack of mobility, playing Sterling in the free role behind Welbeck and Sturridge, and benching Mr. Hairplugopolous.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Arsenal's Transfer Window Deja Vu
I thought this summer was going to be different!
Remember those new commercial deals? The kit deal with Puma?
Ivan Gazidis magnificently played the major bidders (Adidas, Nike, Puma) off each other to get a new kit deal worth 150m over 5 years, or 30m per year. That alone was a 375% increase in commercial income over the old deal with Nike, which admittedly was front-loaded to finance the new stadium, but only brought in 8m per year. The new Emirates shirt/stadium sponsorship deal will also bring in 150m over the next 5 years, starting right now. Our commercial revenue has ramped up significantly. After failing to compete financially with the big boys for years, finally we had commercial firepower we needed to field a competitive team.
Not that we aren't competitive already. The Arsenal team is good enough to win trophies, proving as much on May 17th. For years, our best players wanted to leave the club because they wanted to win trophies. Now that they've won, they still want to leave!
Bacary Sagna was offered more money, more years, and a better chance of winning trophies at Man City than we could offer, so he refused to sign a new contract and moved north to Manchester. Sagna's departure is unfortunate. He has been one of our most consistent players for his 7 years in North London. He has earned the right to do make his own career choices. I just wish we had made the prospect of staying with Arsenal more appealing to him.
Reports have emerged that club captain Thomas Vermaelen has negotiated terms with Man United for a 50% increase in weekly wages. I am not very worried about the prospect of him leaving. Vermaelen is paid like a key player but the emergence of the Mertescielny partnership has diminished his role in the team to that of a squad player. Selling a player whose contract doesn't match his importance to the team makes perfect sense.
But at the same time, Vermaelen leaving would leave us extremely short of central defenders, and we would need to buy cover. I'm not sure who would play if Mertesacker or Koscielny was injured or suspended right now. Flamini? Arteta?
The most frustrating situation emerged yesterday. Santi Cazorla has made no effort to distance himself from a move to Atletico Madrid after just signing a new contract with us this spring.
If Cazorla does leave, after declining to bring back Fabregas, all of a sudden we would be short of creative midfielders. Another injury to Ozil could have devastating ramifications.
I have gone into detail as to why I don't understand our failure to pursue Cesc Fabregas and why I think letting him go to Chelsea was a big mistake. Reports have suggested we were less interested in bringing our former captain back to London than we were in securing the cash from our agreed-upon sell-on fee with Barcelona.
We were strongly linked with a Carlos Vela return, with Real Sociedad's president even claiming "Arsenal have informed us that Vela would be with them next season." But just a few days after that quote emerged, reports suggested we were actually negotiating a buyout of our buy-back clause with the Spanish club, choosing cash over a player who could have helped the team at a hugely-discounted price.
I expected us to sign at least one player before the World Cup began because Wenger has historically acted swiftly on the transfer market to secure his targets before a major international tournament inflates their fees. No deals came. Not for players anyway. Instead, we continue to build our cash reserves.
When the new commercial deals were announced, Gazidis proclaimed:
I hope that we are biding our time, choosing to be reactive over proactive, waiting to see what the other big clubs do and swooping in to secure a player like Ozil from a club who has spent a massive sum of money on a new player. That explanation is the best-case-scenario.
This strategy makes sense, but it's risky, and it seems like a risk that we don't need to take when factoring in our newfound commercial firepower.
We absolutely need a defensive midfielder, a striker, and a central defender. We might also need a right back (depending on your opinion of Carl Jenkinson's readiness and Hector Bellerin's potential) and a reserve goalkeeper (unless you think a youngster like Damian Martinez could fulfill that role). There are several major needs in the squad that need to be addressed.
Perhaps AC Milan and Barcelona wanted to put Mario Balotelli and Alexis Sanchez in the shopping window and refused to do a deal until the World Cup is over. Perhaps we are waiting until after the World Cup to ensure our targets (I really hope we have targets in mind) don't suffer major injuries.
We have the money to significantly improve the squad. We need to use it.
Remember those new commercial deals? The kit deal with Puma?
Ivan Gazidis magnificently played the major bidders (Adidas, Nike, Puma) off each other to get a new kit deal worth 150m over 5 years, or 30m per year. That alone was a 375% increase in commercial income over the old deal with Nike, which admittedly was front-loaded to finance the new stadium, but only brought in 8m per year. The new Emirates shirt/stadium sponsorship deal will also bring in 150m over the next 5 years, starting right now. Our commercial revenue has ramped up significantly. After failing to compete financially with the big boys for years, finally we had commercial firepower we needed to field a competitive team.
Not that we aren't competitive already. The Arsenal team is good enough to win trophies, proving as much on May 17th. For years, our best players wanted to leave the club because they wanted to win trophies. Now that they've won, they still want to leave!
Bacary Sagna was offered more money, more years, and a better chance of winning trophies at Man City than we could offer, so he refused to sign a new contract and moved north to Manchester. Sagna's departure is unfortunate. He has been one of our most consistent players for his 7 years in North London. He has earned the right to do make his own career choices. I just wish we had made the prospect of staying with Arsenal more appealing to him.
Reports have emerged that club captain Thomas Vermaelen has negotiated terms with Man United for a 50% increase in weekly wages. I am not very worried about the prospect of him leaving. Vermaelen is paid like a key player but the emergence of the Mertescielny partnership has diminished his role in the team to that of a squad player. Selling a player whose contract doesn't match his importance to the team makes perfect sense.
But at the same time, Vermaelen leaving would leave us extremely short of central defenders, and we would need to buy cover. I'm not sure who would play if Mertesacker or Koscielny was injured or suspended right now. Flamini? Arteta?
The most frustrating situation emerged yesterday. Santi Cazorla has made no effort to distance himself from a move to Atletico Madrid after just signing a new contract with us this spring.
"When the World Cup is over, I'll start thinking about my situation." Cazorla told reporters in Brazil. "I don't want to be thinking about it right now and I've told my agents not to tell me anything if an offer comes in."I know a few of the Atletico players -- Godin, Juanfran -- and I know the side well from when I was playing in the Spanish League. But until the tournament is over, I won't know if the rumors are true or not."
If Cazorla does leave, after declining to bring back Fabregas, all of a sudden we would be short of creative midfielders. Another injury to Ozil could have devastating ramifications.
I have gone into detail as to why I don't understand our failure to pursue Cesc Fabregas and why I think letting him go to Chelsea was a big mistake. Reports have suggested we were less interested in bringing our former captain back to London than we were in securing the cash from our agreed-upon sell-on fee with Barcelona.
We were strongly linked with a Carlos Vela return, with Real Sociedad's president even claiming "Arsenal have informed us that Vela would be with them next season." But just a few days after that quote emerged, reports suggested we were actually negotiating a buyout of our buy-back clause with the Spanish club, choosing cash over a player who could have helped the team at a hugely-discounted price.
I expected us to sign at least one player before the World Cup began because Wenger has historically acted swiftly on the transfer market to secure his targets before a major international tournament inflates their fees. No deals came. Not for players anyway. Instead, we continue to build our cash reserves.
When the new commercial deals were announced, Gazidis proclaimed:
"What we can do is develop a really solid financial platform for the club that gives us the ability to compete for top players that we want to bring in and also top players that we want to keep. I think we will be able to be more financially competitive. We can pay bigger salaries and I think we can invest more in transfer fees. How we make those decisions will be based on a manager who judgment over the years have been shown to be be absolutely outstanding. We do have cash coming in. We want to be able to invest more in the team."So why aren't we? There is plenty of time remaining in the transfer window, but at this point, the summer seems like deja vu all over again. It has been much more reminiscent of the painful transfer windows of 2011 and 2012 than the very encouraging 2013, when no key players left the club, many signed new contracts, and a world class player was added.
I hope that we are biding our time, choosing to be reactive over proactive, waiting to see what the other big clubs do and swooping in to secure a player like Ozil from a club who has spent a massive sum of money on a new player. That explanation is the best-case-scenario.
This strategy makes sense, but it's risky, and it seems like a risk that we don't need to take when factoring in our newfound commercial firepower.
We absolutely need a defensive midfielder, a striker, and a central defender. We might also need a right back (depending on your opinion of Carl Jenkinson's readiness and Hector Bellerin's potential) and a reserve goalkeeper (unless you think a youngster like Damian Martinez could fulfill that role). There are several major needs in the squad that need to be addressed.
Perhaps AC Milan and Barcelona wanted to put Mario Balotelli and Alexis Sanchez in the shopping window and refused to do a deal until the World Cup is over. Perhaps we are waiting until after the World Cup to ensure our targets (I really hope we have targets in mind) don't suffer major injuries.
We have the money to significantly improve the squad. We need to use it.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
EPL Season Review: Arsenal. Part 2: the Squad
I spent last night basking in the glory of USA's highway robbery fortunate victory against Ghana. The US scored in the first 30 seconds, and hung on for dear life as the Ghanaian team dominated possession and out-shot the US 3 to 1. They finally found an equalizer in the 82nd minute, only to fall behind from a corner 4 minutes later. Next up, Portugal. I can't wait until Sunday.
Today my focus returns to North London, where I still have half a season review to do.
I discussed the strengths and weaknesses of the manager already. Today I'll get into the nuts and bolts of the squad.
Goalkeepers
Szczesny had an up-and-down season, which is to be expected for a player of his age and experience. He did very well against the lower teams, particularly when tested physically on set pieces. But in the biggest games, he still seems to struggle with the additional pressure. His sending off in the first half of the first leg against Bayern in the Champions League killed any hope of advancing in the tournament. He has an unfortunate habit of being at his worst when his team needs him most.
Fabianski is now a Swansea player, but he played a vital role in ending the club's trophy drought by starting every FA Cup match. His penalty heroics against Wigan and great saves against Liverpool and Everton got us to the final. And once we got there, he had one last going-away present for the fans: a heart-attack as he rushed 40 yards off his line in the 118th minute. In all seriousness, Fabianski had some awful times at the club, but was much better in his last two years. He will fight with Michel Vorm for a place in the first team at Swansea next year.
Viviano was loaned from some Italian club and never played. But I did hear he sang "Jingle Bells" beautifully at the team Christmas party.
Defenders
Mertescienly is the best defensive partnership in England. Individually, neither one is as complete a defender as Man City's Vincent Kompany, but the two players compliment each other so well that they formed the most effective central pairing in the league. Mertesacker's positional discipline and ability to read the game provides stability to the back line, while Koscielny's tackling ability and pace makes up for Mertesacker's lack of speed to recover when an attacker does get in behind the defense. The two players form an excellent base for the team to build around.
Vermaelen is captain, but no longer an important member of the team. He isn't quick enough to be a good match with Mertesacker and isn't disciplined enough to partner with Koscielny effectively. After a great start to his Arsenal career, Vermaelen has faded quickly, to the point where I'm not remotely bothered by the rumors of him agreeing to terms with Man United this week.
We had 5 wins (2 AET), 4 draws, and 5 losses when Vermaelen played over half the match this season. Our overall record in all competitions? 37 wins (3 AET), 8 draws, and 11 losses. He was involved in 50% of our draws and nearly 50% of our losses while taking part in just 14% of our victories. He's paid like a key player, but is an unreliable squad player at the moment. Surely we can get a more reliable squad player on much lower wages, so I wouldn't mind seeing Vermaelen go, even if he's joining a domestic rival.
Sagna is a player I did not want to see play in Manchester next season. He has been our most consistent player for the past few seasons, but he let his contract run down, and joined City for more money, more years, and a better chance at winning trophies than we could offer. Fair play to him. He's been a reliable player for the club for 7 years and has earned the right to do whatever he wants with his career. I won't cheer for him at City, but I won't hate him either. I know a lot of people think Sagna will sit on the bench behind Zabaleta, but I could see him partnering with Kompany in the middle. He filled in well at center back for us whenever called upon.
Gibbs continues to progress. He made some crucial tackles and clearances last season, and his pace on the left wing provides a good outlet in attack and recovery in defense. Very few players run past him. While he has been injury-prone, at least we won't have to worry about him playing for England in the near future. Young Luke Shaw has seemingly passed him in the pecking order, meaning Gibbs should get plenty of rest during international breaks next season.
Monreal has done the opposite. 18 months ago he was genuine competition for Gibbs at left back. Now he's clearly second choice. The speed and physicality of the English game is too much for him.
Jenkinson loves the club and it showed when he scored in the last match of the season. He is fast, has insane fitness levels, and has a decent cross. Yes Jenkinson is still very raw in the other parts of his game. I'd still like to see him play more. I don't really see what Serge Aurier would add that Jenkinson doesn't already offer. For me, Jenkinson should get a chance to develop as the first choice right back next year.
Midfielders
Arteta isn't a good enough defensive midfielder to win the league because he struggles to deal with pace and physicality, and often succumbs when a strong opponent puts him under pressure. But he's a great player against the lower teams because he is a reliable distributor of the ball and finds intelligent positions to receive it. Arteta is a great player when we have the ball, but a liability when we don't.
Flamini was brought back to the club for free after his contract at AC Milan wound down. He was a crucial player early in the season, when we were in our best form, because he provided the steel in defense that Arteta lacks. He didn't play as often in the second half of the season, which was largely his own fault. He missed the 1-5 loss at Anfield and 0-3 loss at Goodison on two separate suspensions. Flamini is an aggressive player, and will most likely run into more disciplinary issues next year. All the more reason to strengthen in the defensive midfield position this summer.
Ramsey was our player of the season. What else can be said that hasn't been said already? He was magnificent when healthy and sorely missed when injured. Ramsey is a player we will build around in the seasons to come.
Ozil came on the deadline and showed his class right away against Sunderland. Afterward, he struggled with injuries and had an up-and-down season. The penalty miss against Bayern was certainly the low point, but he did show his class in flashes. Sometimes it can take a full season for a player to adapt to the English style of play, so hopefully we see a more consistent Ozil next season.
Cazorla was actually better in his first season in London than he was in his second, but I think this was largely due to his position. After being used centrally in a free role two years ago, the addition of Ozil pushed Cazorla out the wings, where he sometimes struggled with the additional tactical responsibility. He often was out of position when his fullback needed an outlet pass down the wing, and failed to track the opposing fullback on defense. But he did show his class as well, scoring great goals against Liverpool at home and against Hull in the cup final.
Wilshere was often played "out of position" on the wings this year, where I thought he did really well. He doesn't have the pace of a true winger, but is a very decent wide midfielder because he is a composed passer, he takes intelligent positions when we have the ball, and he had a great season in front of goal. Wilshere scored 5 goals from 30 shots this season, by far his best as a scorer. I wouldn't mind seeing him play outside more next season. Ramsey was used as a right midfielder two years ago, and Wenger suggested it aided his development because he learned how to create space for himself despite having limited room next to the sideline. Wenger explained that once Ramsey moved back to the middle, he flourished with more room, being able to create space for himself in all directions. Perhaps Wilshere can make the same transition.
Rosicky has seemingly put his injury problems behind him (unlike Diaby) and he was a great squad player for us this season. He scored some fantastic goals against Sp*rs, and was a dependable player off the bench all season. Only Diaby and Walcott have been with the team longer.
Zelalem tore up the preseason tour of Asia just one year after playing for Olney Rangers in the Washington DC area. Injuries kept him from the Capital One Cup team, and he only made one appearance all year. I expect big things from Zelalem in the future, both with Arsenal and with the US national team, as he declined an opportunity to play for the Germany youth team and reportedly applied for a US passport last month.
Kallstrom joined on loan in January despite failing his medical, and he was injured for the first 3 months of a 5 month loan. Kallstrom has the best agent in the history of agents.
Forwards/Wingers
Giroud is a good player with some clear limits to his game. He isn't going to run past anyone, and he isn't the most consistent finisher in the world. But his link-up play is top notch. I've never seen a player his size be so good at one-touch passes. He's a 1-2 machine. Our midfielders can play the ball to Giroud and keep their run going, knowing Giroud will find them with a pass immediately. His clever backheel to Ramsey won us the FA Cup.
But we relied on him too heavily. Giroud started 44 matches, and appeared in 7 more as a substitute. As the season went on, he wore down. His movement at the beginning of the season was great, he made lots of runs into dangerous positions. But as he wore down, he made less runs, and failed to make as much of an impact on matches as he did early in the year. Unfortunately he will spend the summer in Brazil and won't get the summer to rest. We need another center forward to compete and rotate with Giroud next season to help share the load up front.
Podolski was the first choice left winger for most of the season, where he scored some great goals. Podolski doesn't help much on defense and can sometimes struggle when he drops into the midfield and tries to contribute to the short-passing play. He isn't a tici-taca sort of player. But when he can find space in dangerous positions, Podolski is a clinical finisher and a great crosser who can provide the quality needed to score goals. I also think he is important to team chemistry because he has a laid-back personality and a good sense of humor. The other players really seem to like him. There are rumors that he might leave the club this summer, but I hope he stays. There's no reason he can't be a great sub to have off the bench when we need a goal when Walcott returns from his injury.
Walcott had stomach surgery in September. He came back in late November. We played him for 5 full matches in 16 days in December/January, and he tore his ACL making a cut. Fatigue causes muscle injuries, and it's clear Walcott's fitness was not strong enough to play so much so soon after he came back from the stomach surgery. He played so much because he's the most important player in the team, though. His speed creates a constant threat to get in behind the defense, forcing the opposing back line to play more conservatively, which gives our stable of creative midfielders more room to create. Hopefully Walcott's recovery goes well and he can make a big impact next season.
Oxlade-Chamberlain battled a few injuries but continued to show flashes of quality. He is fast, strong on the ball, and has a good shot on him. Sometimes his first touch lets him down, but in general, the Ox looks to have all the makings of a great player in the future. Whether he does so on the wing or in the middle is the question. Ox has all the attributes required of good winger. He is quick, can cross it well, and makes good runs for his teammates. But Wenger has said he thinks the Ox's position is more central, where he could be a box-to-box midfielder in the Ramsey mold. I don't think he's ready yet. I'd like to see him on the wing--where losing possession isn't as costly (see Chelsea, away)--until his first touch and distribution is more reliable.
Gnabry was a very important player for us in the middle of the season, scoring a great goal at Swansea and putting forth a man-of-the-match performance in the FA Cup victory against Sp*rs. A teenage former sprinter who is strong on the ball and confident using both feet, Gnabry is a dark horse to take Podolski's place as soon as next season.
Sanogo was bought from Auxerre and got injured at the U-21 World Cup as the lone striker for the victorious French team. He is an extremely raw player, but his athletic ability is clear to see. Big, fast, and strong--Sanogo imposes himself on every match, with extremely little end product. Sanogo will need time to develop into a player who can create chances for himself or others, but at the moment he is certainly a handful for any defender to mark. I'd like to see him loaned out next season to gain first team experience.
Miyaichi was picked to be on the bench at Munich, only to realize we hadn't registered him to play in the Champions League. Whoops!
Bendtner rubbed his junk against a taxi in Copenhagen. Adios Nicklas!
Today my focus returns to North London, where I still have half a season review to do.
I discussed the strengths and weaknesses of the manager already. Today I'll get into the nuts and bolts of the squad.
Goalkeepers
Szczesny had an up-and-down season, which is to be expected for a player of his age and experience. He did very well against the lower teams, particularly when tested physically on set pieces. But in the biggest games, he still seems to struggle with the additional pressure. His sending off in the first half of the first leg against Bayern in the Champions League killed any hope of advancing in the tournament. He has an unfortunate habit of being at his worst when his team needs him most.
Fabianski is now a Swansea player, but he played a vital role in ending the club's trophy drought by starting every FA Cup match. His penalty heroics against Wigan and great saves against Liverpool and Everton got us to the final. And once we got there, he had one last going-away present for the fans: a heart-attack as he rushed 40 yards off his line in the 118th minute. In all seriousness, Fabianski had some awful times at the club, but was much better in his last two years. He will fight with Michel Vorm for a place in the first team at Swansea next year.
Viviano was loaned from some Italian club and never played. But I did hear he sang "Jingle Bells" beautifully at the team Christmas party.
Defenders
Mertescienly is the best defensive partnership in England. Individually, neither one is as complete a defender as Man City's Vincent Kompany, but the two players compliment each other so well that they formed the most effective central pairing in the league. Mertesacker's positional discipline and ability to read the game provides stability to the back line, while Koscielny's tackling ability and pace makes up for Mertesacker's lack of speed to recover when an attacker does get in behind the defense. The two players form an excellent base for the team to build around.
Vermaelen is captain, but no longer an important member of the team. He isn't quick enough to be a good match with Mertesacker and isn't disciplined enough to partner with Koscielny effectively. After a great start to his Arsenal career, Vermaelen has faded quickly, to the point where I'm not remotely bothered by the rumors of him agreeing to terms with Man United this week.
We had 5 wins (2 AET), 4 draws, and 5 losses when Vermaelen played over half the match this season. Our overall record in all competitions? 37 wins (3 AET), 8 draws, and 11 losses. He was involved in 50% of our draws and nearly 50% of our losses while taking part in just 14% of our victories. He's paid like a key player, but is an unreliable squad player at the moment. Surely we can get a more reliable squad player on much lower wages, so I wouldn't mind seeing Vermaelen go, even if he's joining a domestic rival.
Sagna is a player I did not want to see play in Manchester next season. He has been our most consistent player for the past few seasons, but he let his contract run down, and joined City for more money, more years, and a better chance at winning trophies than we could offer. Fair play to him. He's been a reliable player for the club for 7 years and has earned the right to do whatever he wants with his career. I won't cheer for him at City, but I won't hate him either. I know a lot of people think Sagna will sit on the bench behind Zabaleta, but I could see him partnering with Kompany in the middle. He filled in well at center back for us whenever called upon.
Gibbs continues to progress. He made some crucial tackles and clearances last season, and his pace on the left wing provides a good outlet in attack and recovery in defense. Very few players run past him. While he has been injury-prone, at least we won't have to worry about him playing for England in the near future. Young Luke Shaw has seemingly passed him in the pecking order, meaning Gibbs should get plenty of rest during international breaks next season.
Monreal has done the opposite. 18 months ago he was genuine competition for Gibbs at left back. Now he's clearly second choice. The speed and physicality of the English game is too much for him.
Jenkinson loves the club and it showed when he scored in the last match of the season. He is fast, has insane fitness levels, and has a decent cross. Yes Jenkinson is still very raw in the other parts of his game. I'd still like to see him play more. I don't really see what Serge Aurier would add that Jenkinson doesn't already offer. For me, Jenkinson should get a chance to develop as the first choice right back next year.
Midfielders
Arteta isn't a good enough defensive midfielder to win the league because he struggles to deal with pace and physicality, and often succumbs when a strong opponent puts him under pressure. But he's a great player against the lower teams because he is a reliable distributor of the ball and finds intelligent positions to receive it. Arteta is a great player when we have the ball, but a liability when we don't.
Flamini was brought back to the club for free after his contract at AC Milan wound down. He was a crucial player early in the season, when we were in our best form, because he provided the steel in defense that Arteta lacks. He didn't play as often in the second half of the season, which was largely his own fault. He missed the 1-5 loss at Anfield and 0-3 loss at Goodison on two separate suspensions. Flamini is an aggressive player, and will most likely run into more disciplinary issues next year. All the more reason to strengthen in the defensive midfield position this summer.
Ramsey was our player of the season. What else can be said that hasn't been said already? He was magnificent when healthy and sorely missed when injured. Ramsey is a player we will build around in the seasons to come.
Ozil came on the deadline and showed his class right away against Sunderland. Afterward, he struggled with injuries and had an up-and-down season. The penalty miss against Bayern was certainly the low point, but he did show his class in flashes. Sometimes it can take a full season for a player to adapt to the English style of play, so hopefully we see a more consistent Ozil next season.
Cazorla was actually better in his first season in London than he was in his second, but I think this was largely due to his position. After being used centrally in a free role two years ago, the addition of Ozil pushed Cazorla out the wings, where he sometimes struggled with the additional tactical responsibility. He often was out of position when his fullback needed an outlet pass down the wing, and failed to track the opposing fullback on defense. But he did show his class as well, scoring great goals against Liverpool at home and against Hull in the cup final.
Wilshere was often played "out of position" on the wings this year, where I thought he did really well. He doesn't have the pace of a true winger, but is a very decent wide midfielder because he is a composed passer, he takes intelligent positions when we have the ball, and he had a great season in front of goal. Wilshere scored 5 goals from 30 shots this season, by far his best as a scorer. I wouldn't mind seeing him play outside more next season. Ramsey was used as a right midfielder two years ago, and Wenger suggested it aided his development because he learned how to create space for himself despite having limited room next to the sideline. Wenger explained that once Ramsey moved back to the middle, he flourished with more room, being able to create space for himself in all directions. Perhaps Wilshere can make the same transition.
Rosicky has seemingly put his injury problems behind him (unlike Diaby) and he was a great squad player for us this season. He scored some fantastic goals against Sp*rs, and was a dependable player off the bench all season. Only Diaby and Walcott have been with the team longer.
Zelalem tore up the preseason tour of Asia just one year after playing for Olney Rangers in the Washington DC area. Injuries kept him from the Capital One Cup team, and he only made one appearance all year. I expect big things from Zelalem in the future, both with Arsenal and with the US national team, as he declined an opportunity to play for the Germany youth team and reportedly applied for a US passport last month.
Kallstrom joined on loan in January despite failing his medical, and he was injured for the first 3 months of a 5 month loan. Kallstrom has the best agent in the history of agents.
Forwards/Wingers
Giroud is a good player with some clear limits to his game. He isn't going to run past anyone, and he isn't the most consistent finisher in the world. But his link-up play is top notch. I've never seen a player his size be so good at one-touch passes. He's a 1-2 machine. Our midfielders can play the ball to Giroud and keep their run going, knowing Giroud will find them with a pass immediately. His clever backheel to Ramsey won us the FA Cup.
But we relied on him too heavily. Giroud started 44 matches, and appeared in 7 more as a substitute. As the season went on, he wore down. His movement at the beginning of the season was great, he made lots of runs into dangerous positions. But as he wore down, he made less runs, and failed to make as much of an impact on matches as he did early in the year. Unfortunately he will spend the summer in Brazil and won't get the summer to rest. We need another center forward to compete and rotate with Giroud next season to help share the load up front.
Podolski was the first choice left winger for most of the season, where he scored some great goals. Podolski doesn't help much on defense and can sometimes struggle when he drops into the midfield and tries to contribute to the short-passing play. He isn't a tici-taca sort of player. But when he can find space in dangerous positions, Podolski is a clinical finisher and a great crosser who can provide the quality needed to score goals. I also think he is important to team chemistry because he has a laid-back personality and a good sense of humor. The other players really seem to like him. There are rumors that he might leave the club this summer, but I hope he stays. There's no reason he can't be a great sub to have off the bench when we need a goal when Walcott returns from his injury.
Walcott had stomach surgery in September. He came back in late November. We played him for 5 full matches in 16 days in December/January, and he tore his ACL making a cut. Fatigue causes muscle injuries, and it's clear Walcott's fitness was not strong enough to play so much so soon after he came back from the stomach surgery. He played so much because he's the most important player in the team, though. His speed creates a constant threat to get in behind the defense, forcing the opposing back line to play more conservatively, which gives our stable of creative midfielders more room to create. Hopefully Walcott's recovery goes well and he can make a big impact next season.
Oxlade-Chamberlain battled a few injuries but continued to show flashes of quality. He is fast, strong on the ball, and has a good shot on him. Sometimes his first touch lets him down, but in general, the Ox looks to have all the makings of a great player in the future. Whether he does so on the wing or in the middle is the question. Ox has all the attributes required of good winger. He is quick, can cross it well, and makes good runs for his teammates. But Wenger has said he thinks the Ox's position is more central, where he could be a box-to-box midfielder in the Ramsey mold. I don't think he's ready yet. I'd like to see him on the wing--where losing possession isn't as costly (see Chelsea, away)--until his first touch and distribution is more reliable.
Gnabry was a very important player for us in the middle of the season, scoring a great goal at Swansea and putting forth a man-of-the-match performance in the FA Cup victory against Sp*rs. A teenage former sprinter who is strong on the ball and confident using both feet, Gnabry is a dark horse to take Podolski's place as soon as next season.
Sanogo was bought from Auxerre and got injured at the U-21 World Cup as the lone striker for the victorious French team. He is an extremely raw player, but his athletic ability is clear to see. Big, fast, and strong--Sanogo imposes himself on every match, with extremely little end product. Sanogo will need time to develop into a player who can create chances for himself or others, but at the moment he is certainly a handful for any defender to mark. I'd like to see him loaned out next season to gain first team experience.
Miyaichi was picked to be on the bench at Munich, only to realize we hadn't registered him to play in the Champions League. Whoops!
Bendtner rubbed his junk against a taxi in Copenhagen. Adios Nicklas!
Thursday, June 12, 2014
On Fabregas
Cesc Fabregas is coming back to London.
To play for Jose Mourinho.
While most Arsenal apologists will find reasons to rationalize the club's decision to decline to use a widely-reported buy-back clause and let him join a direct rival, I won't.
My honest opinion: Arsenal Football Club screwed up. BIG.
Cesc Fabregas was the best midfielder in England for two years before he left for Barcelona in the summer of 2011. There was no Yaya Toure in 2011, and Cesc was better than Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard. He was the best midfielder England had to offer.
Cesc Fabregas has spent 3 years at Barcelona, where he struggled to fit in with Xavi and Iniesta. But Barcelona made room for him. And a new manager scapegoated him for a poorly-constructed team's failures.
I know a lot of people want to say he was ineffective and a bust at Barcelona. Here are the facts.
Fabregas made 96 appearances for Barcelona in 3 years, an average of 32 per season. Despite numerous injuries.
Fabregas scored 28 goals in his 96 Barcelona appearances. 0.29 goals/appearance. This nearly doubled his production while at Arsenal, where he scored 35 goals in 212 appearances, an average of .16 goals/appearance.
The fact is, Fabregas got better in his three years at Barcelona. And now he will join Arsenal's direct rival.
Arsenal finished in 4th place last season. Chelsea 3rd. By not utilizing the fabled first option, Arsenal has let Fabregas significantly strengthen a direct rival in a position where they sorely needed help.
Am I surprised? No.
Arsenal Football Club already has a world class player in Fabregas's preferred position. And Arsenal Football Club doesn't particularly care if it's actions (or lackthereof) improve a direct rival.
When the company sold Robin van Persie, the buying club won the league the next season, largely due to van Persie's excellent performances.
Fabregas, Diego Costa, and Chelsea have a good chance of winning the league next year as well.
Arsene Wenger spent 42 million pounds on Mesut Ozil last summer. Ozil plays Fabregas's preferred position. There is you're ready-made excuse, apologists.
Cling to that all the way to 4th place next May.
Am I frustrated? Yes.
When Arsenal bought Mikel Arteta, he had always been an attacking midfielder. A creative playmaker. But his experience helped him transition into a deeper defensive role.
Mikel Arteta became Wenger's first choice defensive midfielder because he is intelligent and technically capable. He can distribute the ball and he is positionally disciplined.
Arteta was 28 when he signed for Arsenal. He is now 31. And his days in the first team are numbered.
Cesc Fabregas is 27.
Fabregas could have made the transition to a deeper playmaking role just as Arteta did three years ago.
Wenger clearly has not valued physicality or tackling ability in his central midfielders recently. Flamini is the team's physical tackler, and he failed to take Arteta's place as the season progressed. Rather, Wenger values Arteta's intelligence and technical ability to keep possession over Flamini's rugged physicality.
Personally, I don't agree with Wenger's logic. I would much rather have a ball-winner like Flamini in the team than Arteta, because I think the Arsenal team is weak without the ball. That being said, I can rationalize why Wenger values Arteta's discpline and intelligence over Flamini's recklessness.
But the rationalizing ends today. If Wenger would rather have an intelligent, technical midfielder at the base of his midfield than a rugged, physical tackler, Cesc Fabregas is an clear improvement over Arteta. Arteta was obviously the weakest player in Arsenal's first 11 last season.
Signing Fabregas for his buy-back clause would be a no-brainer, unless Wenger has decided to inject more physicality into his midfield. Time will tell if a different midfielder will take Arteta's place before the season kicks off next August. Perhaps Javi Martinez or Lars Bender could be on their way to North London. Or an unknown star from Serbia we've never hear of. Whoever it is, he better be great.
Because if no replacement comes, understand this clearly:
Letting one of the 10 best midfielders in the world join a direct rival, when Arsenal had all the leverage, is a colossal mistake.
To play for Jose Mourinho.
While most Arsenal apologists will find reasons to rationalize the club's decision to decline to use a widely-reported buy-back clause and let him join a direct rival, I won't.
My honest opinion: Arsenal Football Club screwed up. BIG.
Cesc Fabregas was the best midfielder in England for two years before he left for Barcelona in the summer of 2011. There was no Yaya Toure in 2011, and Cesc was better than Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard. He was the best midfielder England had to offer.
Cesc Fabregas has spent 3 years at Barcelona, where he struggled to fit in with Xavi and Iniesta. But Barcelona made room for him. And a new manager scapegoated him for a poorly-constructed team's failures.
I know a lot of people want to say he was ineffective and a bust at Barcelona. Here are the facts.
Fabregas made 96 appearances for Barcelona in 3 years, an average of 32 per season. Despite numerous injuries.
Fabregas scored 28 goals in his 96 Barcelona appearances. 0.29 goals/appearance. This nearly doubled his production while at Arsenal, where he scored 35 goals in 212 appearances, an average of .16 goals/appearance.
The fact is, Fabregas got better in his three years at Barcelona. And now he will join Arsenal's direct rival.
Arsenal finished in 4th place last season. Chelsea 3rd. By not utilizing the fabled first option, Arsenal has let Fabregas significantly strengthen a direct rival in a position where they sorely needed help.
Am I surprised? No.
Arsenal Football Club already has a world class player in Fabregas's preferred position. And Arsenal Football Club doesn't particularly care if it's actions (or lackthereof) improve a direct rival.
When the company sold Robin van Persie, the buying club won the league the next season, largely due to van Persie's excellent performances.
Fabregas, Diego Costa, and Chelsea have a good chance of winning the league next year as well.
Arsene Wenger spent 42 million pounds on Mesut Ozil last summer. Ozil plays Fabregas's preferred position. There is you're ready-made excuse, apologists.
Cling to that all the way to 4th place next May.
Am I frustrated? Yes.
When Arsenal bought Mikel Arteta, he had always been an attacking midfielder. A creative playmaker. But his experience helped him transition into a deeper defensive role.
Mikel Arteta became Wenger's first choice defensive midfielder because he is intelligent and technically capable. He can distribute the ball and he is positionally disciplined.
Arteta was 28 when he signed for Arsenal. He is now 31. And his days in the first team are numbered.
Cesc Fabregas is 27.
Fabregas could have made the transition to a deeper playmaking role just as Arteta did three years ago.
Wenger clearly has not valued physicality or tackling ability in his central midfielders recently. Flamini is the team's physical tackler, and he failed to take Arteta's place as the season progressed. Rather, Wenger values Arteta's intelligence and technical ability to keep possession over Flamini's rugged physicality.
Personally, I don't agree with Wenger's logic. I would much rather have a ball-winner like Flamini in the team than Arteta, because I think the Arsenal team is weak without the ball. That being said, I can rationalize why Wenger values Arteta's discpline and intelligence over Flamini's recklessness.
But the rationalizing ends today. If Wenger would rather have an intelligent, technical midfielder at the base of his midfield than a rugged, physical tackler, Cesc Fabregas is an clear improvement over Arteta. Arteta was obviously the weakest player in Arsenal's first 11 last season.
Signing Fabregas for his buy-back clause would be a no-brainer, unless Wenger has decided to inject more physicality into his midfield. Time will tell if a different midfielder will take Arteta's place before the season kicks off next August. Perhaps Javi Martinez or Lars Bender could be on their way to North London. Or an unknown star from Serbia we've never hear of. Whoever it is, he better be great.
Because if no replacement comes, understand this clearly:
Letting one of the 10 best midfielders in the world join a direct rival, when Arsenal had all the leverage, is a colossal mistake.
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Arsenal Season Review Part 1: Arsene Wenger
Arsenal finally had a successful season. The Gunners ended the club's trophy drought before it could reach a decade by winning the FA Cup last month. Having led the league for a majority of the season, however, many Arsenal supporters still have a bitter taste in their mouths as a promising season in the league was decimated by yet another plague of injuries and poor results against the biggest clubs. With that being said, after the opening defeat at home to Aston Villa, if any of those supporters had been offered: 1) 4th place, 2) a big name transfer, and 3) the FA Cup they would have taken it in a heartbeat. All three seemed impossible in mid-August.
As this blog is mostly about Arsenal, this Season Review will be in much greater depth than the others. I have decided to split it into two parts. First I will evaluate the manager. In my next post I will evaluate the squad.
Bare with me, I ramble a bit below.
Arsene Wenger still divides opinion like no one else. Celebrated for nurturing a tight-knit group with great chemistry in the first half of the season, Wenger was unable to steer his ship back on course for the title after his team suffered injuries and humiliating defeats in the business end. Still, a 4th place finish is not shameful by any means. Wenger will manage the club in the Champions League for the 17th consecutive season next year. If nothing else, Wenger is remarkably consistent.
I'll address what I perceive to be the biggest strengths and weaknesses of Wenger in 4 parts below.
1. Belief/Man Management
Wenger's steadfast belief in his players has been tested through the years. Perhaps never more than with Aaron Ramsey. Two years ago, the Emirates crowd jeered Ramsey every time he touched the ball. He constantly lost possession, his passing was erratic, and he couldn't seem to control his shots as they flied wide of the goal. Wenger always believed in him. He was patient and calmly told the press that Ramsey was getting in the right positions and that his game would turn around. When many other managers might have offloaded a player the fans despised (see Cesc Fabregas, Barcelona) Wenger refused to do so. His patience was rewarded handsomely.
I've written in depth about Ramsey already this year. Simply I think he put together the best series of performances (on a per game basis) by a British midfielder in EPL history. Had he stayed fit all year, he might have put together the best season by an EPL midfielder ever. Only Yaya Toure is a better player at his position. Ramsey was stunning this year. He scored 15 goals (none from set pieces or penalties) and had 9 assists in 36 total appearances in all competitions. Recently voted the club's player of the season, Ramsey proved Wenger right in the most emphatic way possible.
Other key players, such as Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscienly, were doubted when Wenger first brought them to the club. Mertesacker was too slow and Koscielny too unproven. But they are now the best central defensive pairing in the EPL. Theo Walcott didn't have a "football brain." He has become one of the club's most important players. Tomas Rosicky couldn't stay fit. Wenger never gave up on him. Lukas Fabianski was flappy-handed. Until he won us the FA Cup.
While some of the supporters may have serious doubts about the quality of the squad's more peripheral players (such as Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs, Carl Jenkinson, Yaya Sanogo, and even Abou Diaby) it's comforting to know that Wenger believes in them. If nothing else, they'll receive the patience and reinforcing belief that young players so often need to succeed. And we won't see them develop into superstars somewhere else (fingers crossed).
As always, there are two sides to every story. While Wenger's patience was rewarded this year, one doesn't have to look too far back to see where Wenger's unwavering belief in his players was costly. His faith in Manuel Almunia comes to mind. Sebastien Squillaci, Denilson and Mikael Silvestre as well. But in general, I think the belief Wenger holds in his players is his biggest strength as a manager. His patience is something that most managers, on tighter leashes, would never have the luxury to posses. He reinforces his players' confidence and allows them to develop knowing that a series of poor form won't run them out of the club. I can't imagine a more healthy environment for a young player to grow and eventually succeed.
2. Transfers
Wenger may not delve into the transfer market as often as the supporters would like, but when he does he manages the club's economic resources with maximum efficiency. This is due to his excellent understanding of economics and his mastery of markets. He doesn't overpay for players, and he rarely spends a large sum of money on a bad player.
Santi Cazorla is perhaps the best example. Cazorla is one of the team's most important players, and he was bought from Malaga when Malaga desperately needed to raise funds in order to pay taxes to the Spanish government. Malaga's lack of leverage meant we got the player for less than 15m. Compare that to other attacking midfielders who have signed for our rivals. The Erik Lamela fee could eventually rise to 30m. Juan Mata and Eden Hazard both cost more than 30m. Is Cazorla half the player? Hardly.
Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud were bought for around 10m each. Compare that to other forwards who have joined our rivals recently. Roberto Soldado cost 26m. Edin Dzeko 27m. I don't even need to mention the fees paid for Wayne Rooney, Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll. Or their wages. Wenger identified two undervalued assets and brought them in, and they've been just as productive as their much more expensive competition.
Mesut Ozil was by all means the exception to the rule. But a major reason why Arsenal could afford to pay 42m for Ozil was because Wenger had been so responsible with the club's economic resources in the years prior.
Arsenal is financially healthy, perhaps the most financially healthy club in England (as United is buried in debt and they will not make any money from European play next season), precisely because Wenger so rarely gets burned on the transfer market. If FFP can lower the market value of players like it is intended to do (over the long run), Wenger might be able to find a lot more bargains in the future. That is an exciting proposition for any Arsenal supporter after so many years with so little transfer activity.
This leads to my theory as to why we haven't been very active in the transfer market in recent years. Wenger has publicly stated that the football market wouldn't be immune to the collapsing European economy. Therefore he expected more situations like Cazorla's to arise, where a club was forced to sell their top players to keep themselves economically viable. AC Milan's need to sell Mario Balotelli is a similar situation, and therefore I'm not surprised at all to read the rumors of our interest in him this summer.
Wenger understands leverage and expected many clubs to be forced to sell as the European economy suffered, but the market wasn't self-sustaining. It actually inflated due to an influx of money from outside sources. Oil tycoons bought clubs and invested enormous sums of money into their team with no intent to turn a profit. The above-market-value fees paid by suddenly-rich clubs for players "trickled down" to the lower selling clubs, and all of a sudden a club could sell one player to raise the 20m they needed to stay profitable instead of selling three.
FFP should, in theory, eliminate this inflation by forcing clubs to only spend within their means. In time, the market should deflate and push the cost for players down. If that happens, Wenger should be willing to buy more players because he will be able to find more bargains. One could be understandably skeptical that this deflation will occur, however. PSG's ludicrous fee for David Luiz certainly wasn't a great sign of things to come.
3. Tactics/Style of Play
I find Wenger's match management to be his clear weakness. His understanding of economics and psychology is fantastic for the long-term growth of the club and the long-term development of his team. But in my opinion, where he holds the club back is in the game-to-game predictability of his tactics and his unwillingness to adapt his style of play to counter the strengths of a particular opponent.
Arsenal sets up to beat an inferior opponent every match. Most of the lower clubs play the same way against Arsenal. They sit back, defend deep, and hope to counter. Arsenal has enough quality and patience to push the fullbacks forward and pass the ball around the 18 yard box until eventually finding an opening. And once they have the lead, Arsenal is usually fairly strong on the counter attack when the opponent pushes forward in an attempt to tie the score.
But when Arsenal played the better teams, especially away from home, they struggled. Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City, and Everton ruthlessly caught the defense out of position when both fullbacks roamed forward, leaving just Arteta and the two center backs to defend against three or more attackers. Arsenal conceded 41 EPL goals all year, and 20 of the goals conceded came in four away matches at Anfield, Stamford Bridge, the Etihad, and Goodison Park. A little more defensive caution against the bigger teams with more potent attacks could have brought better results. If Wenger had tweaked the tactics or the style of play to address his opponents' strengths, who knows what could've happened. Arsenal only finished 7 points off the champions, after all.
4. Fitness Management/Squad Depth
Wenger can't hold his hands up and say his players' injuries are bad luck anymore. They are too consistent. Look at this table of total injuries for EPL clubs from 2002 to 2013:
Arsenal suffered 100 more injuries than the next highest team (Tottenham) over an 11-year stretch. Obviously some of these injuries have been more serious than others, as Wenger famously names a player "injured" when in reality they've just been dropped. But no Arsenal supporter can deny every season the club is tested by a range of injuries to key players.
Wenger and Ivan Gazidis say they are trying to identify the problem, but various theories have circulated speculating why exactly Arsenal suffers so many injuries. The widely reported quotes by Dutch fitness coach Raymond Verheijen claimed Wenger's training methods were "prehistoric" and costly over the course of an entire season. Others claimed Arsenal players are tackled more frequently due to high possession numbers. Wenger even suggested that medicines players take, such as hair growth medication, might play a role in the problem. Whatever the cause, something must be done to fix Arsenal's constant injury problem.
One thing is certain: more matches lead to more injuries. Arsenal is always involved in the Champions League and therefore plays more matches than most of their opponents. All the more reason for Wenger to look to build a deep squad and rotate his players in order to manage their fitness. But Wenger seems to prefer the opposite. Wenger intends to keep a small, tight-knit squad in order to keep his players playing and happy.
I can understand why Wenger would want a small squad. It is easier to manage a smaller group of players than a larger group. But he can't run from the injury numbers. While a larger squad may be more difficult for Wenger to manage, it is required to fulfill the club's ambitions. Therefore I think his stubborn insistence on keeping a small squad costs the club at least as many points each season as it gains from the tight-knit squad harmony Wenger is trying to foster.
And don't forget that there can be a benefit to having a bigger squad. Sometimes competition for places can be just as beneficial as team chemistry. It's just more difficult to manage.
In Summary
Wenger is the third highest paid manager in Europe, behind only Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. Is Arsenal getting value for money? It's hard to tell. The long term growth of the club under Wenger's reign is undeniable. But the tactical drawbacks and fitness problems are difficult to ignore.
In my opinion, most of the fruits of Wenger's labor will be enjoyed by his eventual successor. Whoever replaces him will inherit a club with tremendous financial power and a squad of players who have developed well thanks to their manager's steadfast belief in them. But I do think there are managers out there who can improve Arsenal's tactics and better manage the players' fitness. And therefore, while I appreciate Wenger for his decades of excellent service at Arsenal, I do not fear his eventual departure. I look forward to it.
With that being said, Wenger's new 3-year contract means he will run the show until 2017. After finally ending a season on a positive note, Wenger will hope to take momentum into next year and build on this year's success. He may have to change some of his ways in order for Arsenal to win the league again, but one thing is certain: the long-term health of the club will always be in good hands as long as Wenger remains in charge.
As this blog is mostly about Arsenal, this Season Review will be in much greater depth than the others. I have decided to split it into two parts. First I will evaluate the manager. In my next post I will evaluate the squad.
Bare with me, I ramble a bit below.
Arsene Wenger still divides opinion like no one else. Celebrated for nurturing a tight-knit group with great chemistry in the first half of the season, Wenger was unable to steer his ship back on course for the title after his team suffered injuries and humiliating defeats in the business end. Still, a 4th place finish is not shameful by any means. Wenger will manage the club in the Champions League for the 17th consecutive season next year. If nothing else, Wenger is remarkably consistent.
I'll address what I perceive to be the biggest strengths and weaknesses of Wenger in 4 parts below.
1. Belief/Man Management
Wenger's steadfast belief in his players has been tested through the years. Perhaps never more than with Aaron Ramsey. Two years ago, the Emirates crowd jeered Ramsey every time he touched the ball. He constantly lost possession, his passing was erratic, and he couldn't seem to control his shots as they flied wide of the goal. Wenger always believed in him. He was patient and calmly told the press that Ramsey was getting in the right positions and that his game would turn around. When many other managers might have offloaded a player the fans despised (see Cesc Fabregas, Barcelona) Wenger refused to do so. His patience was rewarded handsomely.
I've written in depth about Ramsey already this year. Simply I think he put together the best series of performances (on a per game basis) by a British midfielder in EPL history. Had he stayed fit all year, he might have put together the best season by an EPL midfielder ever. Only Yaya Toure is a better player at his position. Ramsey was stunning this year. He scored 15 goals (none from set pieces or penalties) and had 9 assists in 36 total appearances in all competitions. Recently voted the club's player of the season, Ramsey proved Wenger right in the most emphatic way possible.
Other key players, such as Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscienly, were doubted when Wenger first brought them to the club. Mertesacker was too slow and Koscielny too unproven. But they are now the best central defensive pairing in the EPL. Theo Walcott didn't have a "football brain." He has become one of the club's most important players. Tomas Rosicky couldn't stay fit. Wenger never gave up on him. Lukas Fabianski was flappy-handed. Until he won us the FA Cup.
While some of the supporters may have serious doubts about the quality of the squad's more peripheral players (such as Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs, Carl Jenkinson, Yaya Sanogo, and even Abou Diaby) it's comforting to know that Wenger believes in them. If nothing else, they'll receive the patience and reinforcing belief that young players so often need to succeed. And we won't see them develop into superstars somewhere else (fingers crossed).
As always, there are two sides to every story. While Wenger's patience was rewarded this year, one doesn't have to look too far back to see where Wenger's unwavering belief in his players was costly. His faith in Manuel Almunia comes to mind. Sebastien Squillaci, Denilson and Mikael Silvestre as well. But in general, I think the belief Wenger holds in his players is his biggest strength as a manager. His patience is something that most managers, on tighter leashes, would never have the luxury to posses. He reinforces his players' confidence and allows them to develop knowing that a series of poor form won't run them out of the club. I can't imagine a more healthy environment for a young player to grow and eventually succeed.
2. Transfers
Wenger may not delve into the transfer market as often as the supporters would like, but when he does he manages the club's economic resources with maximum efficiency. This is due to his excellent understanding of economics and his mastery of markets. He doesn't overpay for players, and he rarely spends a large sum of money on a bad player.
Santi Cazorla is perhaps the best example. Cazorla is one of the team's most important players, and he was bought from Malaga when Malaga desperately needed to raise funds in order to pay taxes to the Spanish government. Malaga's lack of leverage meant we got the player for less than 15m. Compare that to other attacking midfielders who have signed for our rivals. The Erik Lamela fee could eventually rise to 30m. Juan Mata and Eden Hazard both cost more than 30m. Is Cazorla half the player? Hardly.
Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud were bought for around 10m each. Compare that to other forwards who have joined our rivals recently. Roberto Soldado cost 26m. Edin Dzeko 27m. I don't even need to mention the fees paid for Wayne Rooney, Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll. Or their wages. Wenger identified two undervalued assets and brought them in, and they've been just as productive as their much more expensive competition.
Mesut Ozil was by all means the exception to the rule. But a major reason why Arsenal could afford to pay 42m for Ozil was because Wenger had been so responsible with the club's economic resources in the years prior.
Arsenal is financially healthy, perhaps the most financially healthy club in England (as United is buried in debt and they will not make any money from European play next season), precisely because Wenger so rarely gets burned on the transfer market. If FFP can lower the market value of players like it is intended to do (over the long run), Wenger might be able to find a lot more bargains in the future. That is an exciting proposition for any Arsenal supporter after so many years with so little transfer activity.
This leads to my theory as to why we haven't been very active in the transfer market in recent years. Wenger has publicly stated that the football market wouldn't be immune to the collapsing European economy. Therefore he expected more situations like Cazorla's to arise, where a club was forced to sell their top players to keep themselves economically viable. AC Milan's need to sell Mario Balotelli is a similar situation, and therefore I'm not surprised at all to read the rumors of our interest in him this summer.
Wenger understands leverage and expected many clubs to be forced to sell as the European economy suffered, but the market wasn't self-sustaining. It actually inflated due to an influx of money from outside sources. Oil tycoons bought clubs and invested enormous sums of money into their team with no intent to turn a profit. The above-market-value fees paid by suddenly-rich clubs for players "trickled down" to the lower selling clubs, and all of a sudden a club could sell one player to raise the 20m they needed to stay profitable instead of selling three.
FFP should, in theory, eliminate this inflation by forcing clubs to only spend within their means. In time, the market should deflate and push the cost for players down. If that happens, Wenger should be willing to buy more players because he will be able to find more bargains. One could be understandably skeptical that this deflation will occur, however. PSG's ludicrous fee for David Luiz certainly wasn't a great sign of things to come.
3. Tactics/Style of Play
I find Wenger's match management to be his clear weakness. His understanding of economics and psychology is fantastic for the long-term growth of the club and the long-term development of his team. But in my opinion, where he holds the club back is in the game-to-game predictability of his tactics and his unwillingness to adapt his style of play to counter the strengths of a particular opponent.
Arsenal sets up to beat an inferior opponent every match. Most of the lower clubs play the same way against Arsenal. They sit back, defend deep, and hope to counter. Arsenal has enough quality and patience to push the fullbacks forward and pass the ball around the 18 yard box until eventually finding an opening. And once they have the lead, Arsenal is usually fairly strong on the counter attack when the opponent pushes forward in an attempt to tie the score.
But when Arsenal played the better teams, especially away from home, they struggled. Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City, and Everton ruthlessly caught the defense out of position when both fullbacks roamed forward, leaving just Arteta and the two center backs to defend against three or more attackers. Arsenal conceded 41 EPL goals all year, and 20 of the goals conceded came in four away matches at Anfield, Stamford Bridge, the Etihad, and Goodison Park. A little more defensive caution against the bigger teams with more potent attacks could have brought better results. If Wenger had tweaked the tactics or the style of play to address his opponents' strengths, who knows what could've happened. Arsenal only finished 7 points off the champions, after all.
4. Fitness Management/Squad Depth
Wenger can't hold his hands up and say his players' injuries are bad luck anymore. They are too consistent. Look at this table of total injuries for EPL clubs from 2002 to 2013:
| Team | Total Injuries |
| Arsenal | 838 |
| Tottenham | 738 |
| Newcastle | 732 |
| Man United | 720 |
| Everton | 631 |
| Chelsea | 588 |
| Man City | 563 |
| Aston Villa | 532 |
| Liverpool | 520 |
| Fulham | 463 |
| Total | 6325 |
Arsenal suffered 100 more injuries than the next highest team (Tottenham) over an 11-year stretch. Obviously some of these injuries have been more serious than others, as Wenger famously names a player "injured" when in reality they've just been dropped. But no Arsenal supporter can deny every season the club is tested by a range of injuries to key players.
Wenger and Ivan Gazidis say they are trying to identify the problem, but various theories have circulated speculating why exactly Arsenal suffers so many injuries. The widely reported quotes by Dutch fitness coach Raymond Verheijen claimed Wenger's training methods were "prehistoric" and costly over the course of an entire season. Others claimed Arsenal players are tackled more frequently due to high possession numbers. Wenger even suggested that medicines players take, such as hair growth medication, might play a role in the problem. Whatever the cause, something must be done to fix Arsenal's constant injury problem.
One thing is certain: more matches lead to more injuries. Arsenal is always involved in the Champions League and therefore plays more matches than most of their opponents. All the more reason for Wenger to look to build a deep squad and rotate his players in order to manage their fitness. But Wenger seems to prefer the opposite. Wenger intends to keep a small, tight-knit squad in order to keep his players playing and happy.
I can understand why Wenger would want a small squad. It is easier to manage a smaller group of players than a larger group. But he can't run from the injury numbers. While a larger squad may be more difficult for Wenger to manage, it is required to fulfill the club's ambitions. Therefore I think his stubborn insistence on keeping a small squad costs the club at least as many points each season as it gains from the tight-knit squad harmony Wenger is trying to foster.
And don't forget that there can be a benefit to having a bigger squad. Sometimes competition for places can be just as beneficial as team chemistry. It's just more difficult to manage.
In Summary
Wenger is the third highest paid manager in Europe, behind only Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. Is Arsenal getting value for money? It's hard to tell. The long term growth of the club under Wenger's reign is undeniable. But the tactical drawbacks and fitness problems are difficult to ignore.
In my opinion, most of the fruits of Wenger's labor will be enjoyed by his eventual successor. Whoever replaces him will inherit a club with tremendous financial power and a squad of players who have developed well thanks to their manager's steadfast belief in them. But I do think there are managers out there who can improve Arsenal's tactics and better manage the players' fitness. And therefore, while I appreciate Wenger for his decades of excellent service at Arsenal, I do not fear his eventual departure. I look forward to it.
With that being said, Wenger's new 3-year contract means he will run the show until 2017. After finally ending a season on a positive note, Wenger will hope to take momentum into next year and build on this year's success. He may have to change some of his ways in order for Arsenal to win the league again, but one thing is certain: the long-term health of the club will always be in good hands as long as Wenger remains in charge.
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
EPL Season Review: 3. Chelsea
The Blues finished in third this year, and after threatening to win both the title and the Champions League came up short in both competitions. Here's a look at how they wound up trophyless.
Manager
Jose Mourinho returned from Real Madrid and watched his old team win La Decima on TV. Manuel Pellegrini, the man he had replaced at Real Madrid, beat Chelsea to the title and also knocked Chelsea out of the FA Cup in his first season at Man City. "The Special One" all of a sudden doesn't look so special anymore. Not as special as his rivals, anyway.
Mourinho brought his extremely defensive tactics back to England, constantly jamming the midfield with defenders and setting his team up to quickly counter-attack. It worked extremely well against the other big clubs. Chelsea won a staggering 5 of their 6 EPL matches against the rest of the top 4, and the sixth was a 0-0 draw at Arsenal when Arsenal was playing extremely well. They conceded just 2 goals in those 6 matches, and scored 13.
Smaller teams set themselves up similarly against Chelsea, allowing the Blues to have the ball and keeping men back to foil their counter-attack. Chelsea struggled against these sides. Late season losses to Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Sunderland took the Blues out of contention for the title, and they lost to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League semi-final because Atletico defended better than the Blues at Stamford Bridge.
3rd place and no cups can only be seen as a failure for Mourinho and Chelsea due to the strength of their squad and the resources available. Roman Abramovich would probably have already sacked anyone else for a season like this one. If the results don't improve next year, Mourinho's homecoming may be a rather short one.
New Additions
Mourinho brought 5 new players in with him in the summer, and 2 more in January. They had mixed results.
Mark Schwarzer was bought to be Petr Cech's backup, and he was called into duty after Cech was injured in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final against Atletico. The veteran was undeniably better than the former deputy, Henrique Hilario, but also undeniably worse than Atletico's on-loan Thibault Courtois, whose rights are owned by Chelsea. Courtois was perhaps the man of the match when Atletico beat Chelsea 3-1 at the Bridge to go to the Final.
Willian was bought, hilariously, from the Tottenham training ground as the Brazilian was going to Spurs for a medical. Abramovich utilized his connections with Russian club Anzhi to steal him right from under Spurs' nose. Willian was gradually introduced to the EPL, making 25 appearances (7 as a substitute) and he didn't have as great a season as many predicted. 4 goals and 2 assists was all Willian could muster, but his pace and athleticism made Chelsea much more dangerous on the counter attack than the man he replaced, Juan Mata.
Samuel Eto'o was brought in on a one-year contract to be the club's 1st choice striker. Injuries somewhat derailed his first season in England, but the Cameroonian did finish second on the team with 9 EPL goals. He also had 2 assists in just 16 EPL starts. Although he was undeniably the club's best striker this year, it looks like he will be replaced by Atletico's Sprazilian sensation Diego Costa next season.
Andre Schurrle was bought from Bayern Leverkusen and made 30 EPL appearances, 15 as a substitute. He scored 8 crucial goals and assisted 2 more, which is a strong return for a player who was often on the bench in his first season in England. Often behind Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Willian in the pecking order, Schurrle did very well last year, and was probably the club's most successful summer signing.
Marco van Ginkel suffered an ACL injury and missed most of the season. It would be unfair to judge Oscar's understudy at this point.
Nemanja Matic returned to Chelsea from Benfica and was probably the best January signing in the league. Matic is a tall, athletic warrior in midfield who can tackle and shoot from distance. He's the type of player who seems to be a perfect fit in Mourinho's philosophy. Man of the Match in his first game (a win at Man City), Matic was a mainstay in the Chelsea team in the spring, making 15 starts and 2 more appearances as a substitute. But he was crucially cup-tied in the Champions League, after playing in the competition for Benfica in the fall. One can only wonder how Chelsea's fate may have differed had Matic been available.
Mohamed Salah was bought from FC Basel to be a backup winger. The Egyptian is very fast, and he scored 2 goals in 6 starts and 4 more appearances as a substitute this spring. Salah is behind Hazard, Willian, and Schurrle in the pecking order and it's hard to see how that will change next year.
Key Players
Eden Hazard won the PFA Young Player of the Year award, as he tallied 14 goals and 7 assists in 35 appearances from the left wing. The diminutive Belgian is probably the most skilled dribbler in the Premier League. He causes constant problems for the opposing defense when he has the ball. But he doesn't seem to fit well in Mourinho's system. Mourinho wants his wingers to track back and he gives them a tremendous amount of defensive responsibility. Hazard is, frankly, terrible at this role. Hazard went public in his criticism of his manager's tactics after the loss, complaining that the team was only set up to counter-attack. Mourinho responded by questioning his star player's commitment, saying "[Hazard] is not the kind of player to sacrifice himself for the team" and blaming Hazard's poor marking for the loss to Atletico Madrid. The marriage between Mourinho and his best player is a rocky one, and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts.
Bratislav Ivanovic was one of three mainstays in Chelsea's dominant defense, with John Terry and Gary Cahill. All three made 30 or more appearances, but Ivanovic was the most consistent. Ivanovic started 36 matches in the EPL and scored 3 goals. The makeshift right back has grown into his role, and his physicality can seriously intimidate opposing forwards. While brute strength is perhaps Ivanovic's best attribute, his ability to get forward and help out in the attack is often undervalued.
Cesar Azpilicueta broke into the first team at the expense of Ashley Cole on the left side of Chelsea's defense. While he is naturally a better fit on Ivanovic's right side, the young Spaniard was one of Mourinho's most reliable players in the second half of the season. He made 29 appearances and will feature prominently in his manager's plans next season. Rumors of Chelsea's interest in another Atletico player, left back Felipe Luis, may allow Azpilicueta to shift to his more natural position on the right, consequently moving Ivanovic back to his more natural position in the center, next year.
Looking Ahead
Chelsea looks determined to strengthen. The Diego Costa signing seems to be all but confirmed. Felipe Luis may very well join him at the Blues next year from Atletico. And they are rumored to be interested in bringing Cesc Fabregas back to London.
PSG is willing to pay a ridiculous fee for David Luiz, a glorified squad player under Mourinho whose importance was trivialized with the addition of Matic. Samuel Eto'o, Frank Lampard and Ashley Cole look set to leave as well, so Chelsea should have a lot of room on the wage bill to buy new players. Room that would only increase further if Chelsea can somehow get someone to take Fernando Torres off their hands.
Chelsea will need to become much stronger in attack in order to break through the defensive smaller clubs that caused them so many problems this year. Costa is a very good start, but it remains to be seen how he'll fair in his first season in England. Very often players like Costa, who look like they can handle the physicality of the EPL, actually can't (Julio Baptista comes to mind). In my opinion, they'd be stupid not to bring Romelu Lukaku back to the first team setup after two very successful years on loan with lower EPL clubs. But Mourinho doesn't seem to rate the player.
It's hard to see Mourinho coming back without a trophy again next season. His job might very well depend on it. With City's FFP problems and Liverpool's additional fixtures, Chelsea looks to be in a very good position to put forth a genuine title challenge. And in order to do that, "The Special One" will need to buy players that can bring something different to his attack. Keep an eye on what Chelsea does this summer. It could easily decide the title.
Manager
Jose Mourinho returned from Real Madrid and watched his old team win La Decima on TV. Manuel Pellegrini, the man he had replaced at Real Madrid, beat Chelsea to the title and also knocked Chelsea out of the FA Cup in his first season at Man City. "The Special One" all of a sudden doesn't look so special anymore. Not as special as his rivals, anyway.
Mourinho brought his extremely defensive tactics back to England, constantly jamming the midfield with defenders and setting his team up to quickly counter-attack. It worked extremely well against the other big clubs. Chelsea won a staggering 5 of their 6 EPL matches against the rest of the top 4, and the sixth was a 0-0 draw at Arsenal when Arsenal was playing extremely well. They conceded just 2 goals in those 6 matches, and scored 13.
Smaller teams set themselves up similarly against Chelsea, allowing the Blues to have the ball and keeping men back to foil their counter-attack. Chelsea struggled against these sides. Late season losses to Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Sunderland took the Blues out of contention for the title, and they lost to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League semi-final because Atletico defended better than the Blues at Stamford Bridge.
3rd place and no cups can only be seen as a failure for Mourinho and Chelsea due to the strength of their squad and the resources available. Roman Abramovich would probably have already sacked anyone else for a season like this one. If the results don't improve next year, Mourinho's homecoming may be a rather short one.
New Additions
Mourinho brought 5 new players in with him in the summer, and 2 more in January. They had mixed results.
Mark Schwarzer was bought to be Petr Cech's backup, and he was called into duty after Cech was injured in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final against Atletico. The veteran was undeniably better than the former deputy, Henrique Hilario, but also undeniably worse than Atletico's on-loan Thibault Courtois, whose rights are owned by Chelsea. Courtois was perhaps the man of the match when Atletico beat Chelsea 3-1 at the Bridge to go to the Final.
Willian was bought, hilariously, from the Tottenham training ground as the Brazilian was going to Spurs for a medical. Abramovich utilized his connections with Russian club Anzhi to steal him right from under Spurs' nose. Willian was gradually introduced to the EPL, making 25 appearances (7 as a substitute) and he didn't have as great a season as many predicted. 4 goals and 2 assists was all Willian could muster, but his pace and athleticism made Chelsea much more dangerous on the counter attack than the man he replaced, Juan Mata.
Samuel Eto'o was brought in on a one-year contract to be the club's 1st choice striker. Injuries somewhat derailed his first season in England, but the Cameroonian did finish second on the team with 9 EPL goals. He also had 2 assists in just 16 EPL starts. Although he was undeniably the club's best striker this year, it looks like he will be replaced by Atletico's Sprazilian sensation Diego Costa next season.
Andre Schurrle was bought from Bayern Leverkusen and made 30 EPL appearances, 15 as a substitute. He scored 8 crucial goals and assisted 2 more, which is a strong return for a player who was often on the bench in his first season in England. Often behind Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Willian in the pecking order, Schurrle did very well last year, and was probably the club's most successful summer signing.
Marco van Ginkel suffered an ACL injury and missed most of the season. It would be unfair to judge Oscar's understudy at this point.
Nemanja Matic returned to Chelsea from Benfica and was probably the best January signing in the league. Matic is a tall, athletic warrior in midfield who can tackle and shoot from distance. He's the type of player who seems to be a perfect fit in Mourinho's philosophy. Man of the Match in his first game (a win at Man City), Matic was a mainstay in the Chelsea team in the spring, making 15 starts and 2 more appearances as a substitute. But he was crucially cup-tied in the Champions League, after playing in the competition for Benfica in the fall. One can only wonder how Chelsea's fate may have differed had Matic been available.
Mohamed Salah was bought from FC Basel to be a backup winger. The Egyptian is very fast, and he scored 2 goals in 6 starts and 4 more appearances as a substitute this spring. Salah is behind Hazard, Willian, and Schurrle in the pecking order and it's hard to see how that will change next year.
Key Players
Eden Hazard won the PFA Young Player of the Year award, as he tallied 14 goals and 7 assists in 35 appearances from the left wing. The diminutive Belgian is probably the most skilled dribbler in the Premier League. He causes constant problems for the opposing defense when he has the ball. But he doesn't seem to fit well in Mourinho's system. Mourinho wants his wingers to track back and he gives them a tremendous amount of defensive responsibility. Hazard is, frankly, terrible at this role. Hazard went public in his criticism of his manager's tactics after the loss, complaining that the team was only set up to counter-attack. Mourinho responded by questioning his star player's commitment, saying "[Hazard] is not the kind of player to sacrifice himself for the team" and blaming Hazard's poor marking for the loss to Atletico Madrid. The marriage between Mourinho and his best player is a rocky one, and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts.
Bratislav Ivanovic was one of three mainstays in Chelsea's dominant defense, with John Terry and Gary Cahill. All three made 30 or more appearances, but Ivanovic was the most consistent. Ivanovic started 36 matches in the EPL and scored 3 goals. The makeshift right back has grown into his role, and his physicality can seriously intimidate opposing forwards. While brute strength is perhaps Ivanovic's best attribute, his ability to get forward and help out in the attack is often undervalued.
Cesar Azpilicueta broke into the first team at the expense of Ashley Cole on the left side of Chelsea's defense. While he is naturally a better fit on Ivanovic's right side, the young Spaniard was one of Mourinho's most reliable players in the second half of the season. He made 29 appearances and will feature prominently in his manager's plans next season. Rumors of Chelsea's interest in another Atletico player, left back Felipe Luis, may allow Azpilicueta to shift to his more natural position on the right, consequently moving Ivanovic back to his more natural position in the center, next year.
Looking Ahead
Chelsea looks determined to strengthen. The Diego Costa signing seems to be all but confirmed. Felipe Luis may very well join him at the Blues next year from Atletico. And they are rumored to be interested in bringing Cesc Fabregas back to London.
PSG is willing to pay a ridiculous fee for David Luiz, a glorified squad player under Mourinho whose importance was trivialized with the addition of Matic. Samuel Eto'o, Frank Lampard and Ashley Cole look set to leave as well, so Chelsea should have a lot of room on the wage bill to buy new players. Room that would only increase further if Chelsea can somehow get someone to take Fernando Torres off their hands.
Chelsea will need to become much stronger in attack in order to break through the defensive smaller clubs that caused them so many problems this year. Costa is a very good start, but it remains to be seen how he'll fair in his first season in England. Very often players like Costa, who look like they can handle the physicality of the EPL, actually can't (Julio Baptista comes to mind). In my opinion, they'd be stupid not to bring Romelu Lukaku back to the first team setup after two very successful years on loan with lower EPL clubs. But Mourinho doesn't seem to rate the player.
It's hard to see Mourinho coming back without a trophy again next season. His job might very well depend on it. With City's FFP problems and Liverpool's additional fixtures, Chelsea looks to be in a very good position to put forth a genuine title challenge. And in order to do that, "The Special One" will need to buy players that can bring something different to his attack. Keep an eye on what Chelsea does this summer. It could easily decide the title.
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